NFL Power Ranking: Baltimore Ravens a Solid #1 and Patriots Slip to #3

1BALTIMORE RAVENS 10-2 | 2019 Projection: 13 Wins
Win 77% of Neutral Field Simulations

Even with the juice, the Ravens are a good betting value. Their 29.2% chance to win the Super Bowl (based on simulations) is #1 in the league. Current Odds are 3/1, 25%. Their pre-season futures line was 8.5 wins so they have hit the over. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the AFC. After 12 games, their expected win percentage is 64% based on the money line odds. At 10-2 they are well ahead of expectations.

2NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 10-2 | 2019 Projection: 13 Wins
Win 70% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their simulation based win percentage (19.8%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 4/1, 20%. They are projected to win 13 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 10.5. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the NFC. After 12 games, their expected win percentage is 60% based on the money line odds. They are beating expectations with their 10-2 record.

3NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 10-2 | 2019 Projection: 13 Wins
Win 68% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 16% chance is #3 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 7/2, 22.2%. They are projected to win 13 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 11. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the AFC. After 12 games, their expected win percentage is 77% based on the money line odds. At 10-2 they are in line with these expectations.

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4SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 10-2 | 2019 Projection: 12 Wins
Win 68% of Neutral Field Simulations

They win the Super Bowl in 12.9% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. Current Odds are 7/1, 12.5%. Their pre-season futures line was 8 wins so they have hit the over. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the NFC. After 12 games, their expected win percentage is 62% based on the money line odds. They are beating expectations with their 10-2 record.

5KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 8-4 | 2019 Projection: 11 Wins
Win 70% of Neutral Field Simulations

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 7.1% chance is #5 in the league. Current Odds are 10/1, 9.1%. They are projected to win 11 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 10.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the AFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 7.7-4.3. They are ahead of expectations with their 8-4 record. Their power ranking is better than their record would indicate. If healthy on a neutral field they have a better power ranking (#3 in the league).

6SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 9-2 | 2019 Projection: 12 Wins
Win 57% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their championship based ranking is better than their #9 ranking based on our neutral field simulations. Their 4.1% chance is #6 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 12/1, 7.7%. Their pre-season futures line was 9 wins so they have a push with 5 games remaining. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the NFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 6.4-4.6. At 9-2 they are well ahead of expectations.

7MINNESOTA VIKINGS 8-3 | 2019 Projection: 11 Wins
Win 60% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 3.1% chance is #7 in the league. Current Odds are 12/1, 7.7%. They are projected to win 11 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 9. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the NFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 6.9-4.1. They are ahead of expectations with their 8-3 record.

8DALLAS COWBOYS 6-6 | 2019 Projection: 8 Wins
Win 58% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their power ranking is much better than their record would indicate. Their 1.8% chance is #8 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 25/1, 3.8%. They are projected to win 8 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 9. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the NFC. After 12 games, their expected win percentage is 67% based on the money line odds. They are coming up well short of expectations with their 6-6 record.

9GREEN BAY PACKERS 9-3 | 2019 Projection: 11 Wins
Win 52% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are much worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #15 in the league. They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 1.4% chance is #9 in the league. Current Odds are 18/1, 5.3%. Their pre-season futures line was 9 wins so they have a push with 4 games remaining. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the NFC. After 12 games, their expected win percentage is 60% based on the money line odds. At 9-3 they are well ahead of expectations.

10HOUSTON TEXANS 8-4 | 2019 Projection: 10 Wins
Win 53% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #12 in the league. Their 1.3% chance is #10 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. They are projected to win 10 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 8.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the AFC. After 12 games, their expected win percentage is 51% based on the money line odds. At 8-4 they are well ahead of expectations.

11BUFFALO BILLS 9-3 | 2019 Projection: 11 Wins
Win 54% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their simulation based win percentage (1.1%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 80/1, 1.2%. Their pre-season futures line was 7 wins so they have hit the over. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the AFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 6.6-5.4. At 9-3 they are well ahead of expectations.

12LOS ANGELES RAMS 7-5 | 2019 Projection: 9 Wins
Win 59% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 0.8% chance is #12 in the league. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. They are projected to win 9 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 10.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the NFC. After 12 games, their expected win percentage is 61% based on the money line odds. At 7-5 they are in line with these expectations. They are much better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #7 team in the league.

13TENNESSEE TITANS 7-5 | 2019 Projection: 9 Wins
Win 52% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #16 in the league. They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 0.6% chance is #13 in the league. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. They are projected to win 9 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 8. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the AFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 5.9-6.1. They are ahead of expectations with their 7-5 record.

14PITTSBURGH STEELERS 7-5 | 2019 Projection: 9 Wins
Win 51% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 0.4% chance is #14 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. They are projected to win 9 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 9.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the AFC. After 12 games, their expected win percentage is 49% based on the money line odds. They are ahead of expectations with their 7-5 record. Their championship based ranking is better than their #17 ranking based on our neutral field simulations.

15PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 5-7 | 2019 Projection: 8 Wins
Win 51% of Neutral Field Simulations

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.3% chance is #15 in the league. Current Odds are 80/1, 1.2%. They are projected to win 8 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 10. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the NFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 6.8-5.2. At 5-7 they are coming up well short of expectations. Their championship based ranking is better than their #18 ranking based on our neutral field simulations.

16INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 6-6 | 2019 Projection: 8 Wins
Win 48% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their championship based ranking is much better than their #20 ranking based on our neutral field simulations. They do not have any real chance to win the Super Bowl. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. They are projected to win 8 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 7.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the AFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 6-6. At 6-6 they are in line with these expectations.

17CLEVELAND BROWNS 5-7 | 2019 Projection: 7 Wins
Win 53% of Neutral Field Simulations

If healthy on a neutral field they have a much better power ranking (#13 in the league). They win the Super Bowl in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. They are projected to win 7 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 9. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the AFC. After 12 games, their expected win percentage is 52% based on the money line odds. They are coming up short of expectations at 5-7.

18CHICAGO BEARS 6-6 | 2019 Projection: 8 Wins
Win 50% of Neutral Field Simulations

They do not have any real chance to win the Super Bowl. Current Odds are 200/1, 0.5%. They are projected to win 8 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 9. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the NFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 7.1-4.9. At 6-6 they are short of expectations.

19OAKLAND RAIDERS 6-6 | 2019 Projection: 8 Wins
Win 36% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their pre-season futures line was 6 wins so they have a push with 4 games remaining. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the AFC. Their playoff chances stand at 5.6% (0.4% to win the division). Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 4.8-7.2. At 6-6 they ahead of expectations.

20JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 4-8 | 2019 Projection: 6 Wins
Win 40% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are projected to win 6 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 8. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the AFC. Their playoff chances are under 1%. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 5.5-6.5. At 4-8 they are coming up well short of expectations.

21TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 5-7 | 2019 Projection: 7 Wins
Win 43% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are projected to win 7 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 6.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the NFC. Their playoff chances are under 1%. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 5.3-6.7. At 5-7 they are in line with these expectations. They are worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #24 in the league.

22DENVER BRONCOS 4-8 | 2019 Projection: 6 Wins
Win 43% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are projected to win 6 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 7. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the AFC. Their playoff chances are under 1%. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 4.6-7.4. At 4-8 they are short of expectations.

23WASHINGTON REDSKINS 3-9 | 2019 Projection: 4 Wins
Win 33% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are projected to win 4 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 6. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #15 in the NFC. Their playoff chances are under 1%. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 3.5-8.5. At 3-9 they are short of expectations.

24NEW YORK JETS 4-8 | 2019 Projection: 5 Wins
Win 30% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are projected to win 5 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 7.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the AFC. Their playoff chances are under 1%. After 12 games, their expected win percentage is 35% based on the money line odds. At 4-8 they are short of expectations.

25CAROLINA PANTHERS 5-7 | 2019 Projection: 7 Wins
Win 45% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are projected to win 6 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 8. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the NFC. Their playoff chances are under 1%. After 12 games, their expected win percentage is 51% based on the money line odds. They are coming up short of expectations at 5-7. If healthy on a neutral field they have a much better power ranking (#21 in the league).

26LOS ANGELES CHARGERS 4-8 | 2019 Projection: 6 Wins
Win 55% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are much better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #10 team in the league. They are projected to win 6 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 10. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the AFC. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a -190 'favorite' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 6.7-5.3. They are coming up well short of expectations with their 4-8 record.

27DETROIT LIONS 3-8-1 | 2019 Projection: 5.1 Wins
Win 52% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are projected to win 5 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 6.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the NFC. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +325 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. After 12 games, their expected win percentage is 42% based on the money line odds. At 3-8-1 they are short of expectations. If healthy on a neutral field they have a much better power ranking (#14 in the league).

28ATLANTA FALCONS 3-9 | 2019 Projection: 5 Wins
Win 43% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are projected to win 5 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 8.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the NFC. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +160 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. After 12 games, their expected win percentage is 41% based on the money line odds. At 3-9 they are coming up well short of expectations. They are better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #25 team in the league.

29ARIZONA CARDINALS 3-8-1 | 2019 Projection: 4.5 Wins
Win 45% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are projected to win 4 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the NFC. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +1000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. After 12 games, their expected win percentage is 33% based on the money line odds. At 3-8-1 they are in line with these expectations. They are much better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #22 team in the league.

30MIAMI DOLPHINS 3-9 | 2019 Projection: 4 Wins
Win 22% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are projected to win 4 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 4.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #15 in the AFC. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +1200 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. After 12 games, their expected win percentage is 19% based on the money line odds. At 3-9 they are in line with these expectations.

31NEW YORK GIANTS 2-10 | 2019 Projection: 4 Wins
Win 31% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are projected to win 4 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 6. In simulations they finish last in the NFC based on projected wins. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +500 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 4.5-7.5. At 2-10 they are coming up well short of expectations.

32CINCINNATI BENGALS 1-11 | 2019 Projection: 2 Wins
Win 31% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are projected to win 2 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 6. In simulations they finish last in the AFC based on projected wins. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +750 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. After 12 games, their expected win percentage is 31% based on the money line odds. At 1-11 they are coming up well short of expectations.