NFL Power Ranking: Baltimore Ravens Are New #1 Based on Computer Projection

1BALTIMORE RAVENS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 8.5 Wins
Win 76% of Neutral Field Simulations

They were just behind the Chiefs in terms of wins per simulation (11.5 to 11.9), percent chance to win the AFC (36% to 32%) and winning the Super Bowl (18% to 21%). Calais Campbell takes them to the top of the AFC as he should both improve their already solid run defense while helping the Ravens go from a below average pass rushing team to an above average, and potentially Top 8 squad in terms of sack total. They are a good bet to win the Super Bowl (21.4 percent chance). Current Odds are 8/1, 11.1%. The Ravens are averaging 11.9 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 8.5 games. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the AFC. With a 14-2 record they managed to beat the high expectations that oddsmakers had of them (expected win percentage = 66%).

2KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 10.5 Wins
Win 75% of Neutral Field Simulations

Even with the juice, the Chiefs are a good betting value. Their 20.1% chance to win the Super Bowl (based on simulations) is #2 in the league. Current Odds are 5/1, 16.7%. The Chiefs are averaging 11.9 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 10.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the AFC. They went 12-4 last season. They were very good against the spread going 10-5-1 for (+450 profit).

3SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 8 Wins
Win 74% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are a good bet to win the Super Bowl (20 percent chance). Current Odds are 8/1, 11.1%. The 49ers are averaging 11.5 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 8 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the NFC. With a 13-3 record they managed to beat the high expectations that oddsmakers had of them (expected win percentage = 63%).

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4NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 10.5 Wins
Win 70% of Neutral Field Simulations

Even with the juice, the Saints are a good betting value. Their 15% chance to win the Super Bowl (based on simulations) is #4 in the league. Current Odds are 10/1, 9.1%. The Saints are averaging 11.6 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 10.5 games. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the NFC. They went 13-3 last season. They were very good against the spread going 11-5 for (+550 profit).

5NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 11 Wins
Win 65% of Neutral Field Simulations

If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Patriots would be a good betting value. Their 6.5% chance to win the Super Bowl (based on simulations) is #5 in the league. Current Odds are 14/1, 6.7%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 11 games. The Patriots are averaging 10.9 wins per sim. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the AFC. They were expected to win 76% of their games last season so their 12-4 met expectations.

6DALLAS COWBOYS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 9 Wins
Win 60% of Neutral Field Simulations

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 3.3% chance is #6 in the league. Current Odds are 12/1, 7.7%. The Cowboys are averaging 10 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 9 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the NFC. Their 8-8 record last season was very disappointing. Their expected win percentage was 66%.

7MINNESOTA VIKINGS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 9 Wins
Win 59% of Neutral Field Simulations

If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Vikings would be a good betting value. Their 3.2% chance to win the Super Bowl (based on simulations) is #7 in the league. Current Odds are 25/1, 3.8%. The Vikings are averaging 9.6 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 9 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the NFC. They were expected to win 61% of their games last season so their 10-6 met expectations.

8LOS ANGELES RAMS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 10.5 Wins
Win 60% of Neutral Field Simulations

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1.9% chance is #8 in the league. Current Odds are 25/1, 3.8%. The Rams are averaging 8.9 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 10.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the NFC. They were expected to win 59% of their games last season so their 9-7 met expectations. They are better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #6 team in the league.

9TENNESSEE TITANS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 8 Wins
Win 56% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 1.8% chance is #9 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. The Titans are averaging 9.2 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 8 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the AFC. Their 9-7 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 8.2-7.8.

10BUFFALO BILLS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 7 Wins
Win 58% of Neutral Field Simulations

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1.7% chance is #10 in the league. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. The Bills are averaging 9.5 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 7 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the AFC. Their 10-6 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their expected win percentage was just 51%.

11GREEN BAY PACKERS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 9 Wins
Win 55% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #13 in the league. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1% chance is #11 in the league. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. The Packers are averaging 8.5 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 9 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the NFC. Their 13-3 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 9.9-6.1.

12CHICAGO BEARS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 9 Wins
Win 53% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their championship based ranking is better than their #14 ranking based on our neutral field simulations. Their 0.8% chance is #12 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 25/1, 3.8%. The Bears are averaging 8.2 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 9 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the NFC. They went 8-8 last season. They were not good against the spread going 4-12 (-920 loss).

13PITTSBURGH STEELERS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 9.5 Wins
Win 55% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #11 team in the league. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.7% chance is #13 in the league. Current Odds are 16/1, 5.9%. The Steelers are averaging 8.6 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 9.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the AFC. They were expected to win 50% of their games last season so their 8-8 met expectations.

14PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 10 Wins
Win 49% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their championship based ranking is better than their #17 ranking based on our neutral field simulations. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.6% chance is #14 in the league. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. The Eagles are averaging 8.6 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 10 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the NFC. They went 9-7 last season. They were not good against the spread going 7-9 (-290 loss).

15SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 9 Wins
Win 55% of Neutral Field Simulations

If healthy on a neutral field they have a better power ranking (#12 in the league). Their 0.5% chance is #15 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. The Seahawks are averaging 7.8 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 9 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the NFC. They overachieved last season. Their game odds projected to 9.3 wins. Their 11-5 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them.

16INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 7.5 Wins
Win 50% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 0.4% chance is #16 in the league. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. The Colts are averaging 8.2 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 7.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the AFC. Oddsmakers expected them to win 8 based on their money line game odds. Their 7-9 record last season was very disappointing.

17HOUSTON TEXANS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 8.5 Wins
Win 50% of Neutral Field Simulations

If healthy on a neutral field they have a better power ranking (#15 in the league). Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.2% chance is #17 in the league. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. The Texans are averaging 7.8 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 8.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the AFC. Their 10-6 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their expected win percentage was just 51%.

18LOS ANGELES CHARGERS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 10 Wins
Win 48% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 0.2% chance is #18 in the league. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. The Chargers are averaging 7.8 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 10 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the AFC. They went 5-11 last season. They were not good against the spread going 4-9-3 (-590 loss).

19DENVER BRONCOS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 7 Wins
Win 48% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 0.2% chance is #19 in the league. Current Odds are 60/1, 1.6%. The Broncos are averaging 7.6 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 7 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the AFC. Their 7-9 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. Their expected win percentage was 40%.

20TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 6.5 Wins
Win 44% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #22 in the league. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.1% chance is #20 in the league. Current Odds are 60/1, 1.6%. The Buccaneers are averaging 7 wins per sim which makes them a decent bet to win over 6.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the NFC. They went 7-9 last season. They were not good against the spread going 5-9-2 (-490 loss).

21ATLANTA FALCONS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 8.5 Wins
Win 46% of Neutral Field Simulations

They do not have any real chance to win the Super Bowl. Current Odds are 50/1, 2%. The Falcons are averaging 6.9 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 8.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the NFC. They were expected to win 43% of their games last season so their 7-9 met expectations.

22CLEVELAND BROWNS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 9 Wins
Win 45% of Neutral Field Simulations

They do not have any real chance to win the Super Bowl. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. The Browns are averaging 7 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 9 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the AFC. They went 6-10 last season. They were not good against the spread going 5-10-1 (-600 loss).

23ARIZONA CARDINALS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 5 Wins
Win 43% of Neutral Field Simulations

They do not have any real chance to win the Super Bowl. Current Odds are 80/1, 1.2%. The Cardinals are averaging 6.6 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the NFC. They went 5-10-1 last season. They were very good against the spread going 9-5-2 for (+350 profit).

24JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 8 Wins
Win 37% of Neutral Field Simulations

They win the Super Bowl in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. The Jaguars are averaging 6 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 8 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the AFC. Their 6-10 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their expected win percentage was 42%.

25NEW YORK GIANTS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 6 Wins
Win 33% of Neutral Field Simulations

They do not have any real chance to win the Super Bowl. Current Odds are 80/1, 1.2%. The Giants are averaging 6.1 wins per sim which is essentially the same as their futures line of 6 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the NFC. They went 4-12 last season. They were not good against the spread going 7-9 (-290 loss).

26LAS VEGAS RAIDERS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 6 Wins
Win 37% of Neutral Field Simulations

They win the Super Bowl in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 6 games. The Raiders are averaging 5.8 wins per sim. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the AFC. They were expected to win 41% of their games last season so their 7-9 met expectations.

27DETROIT LIONS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 6.5 Wins
Win 39% of Neutral Field Simulations

They win the Super Bowl in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 80/1, 1.2%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 6.5 games. The Lions are averaging 6.1 wins per sim. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the NFC. They went 3-12-1 last season. They were not good against the spread going 6-10 (-500 loss). If healthy on a neutral field they have a better power ranking (#25 in the league).

28CAROLINA PANTHERS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 8 Wins
Win 40% of Neutral Field Simulations

If healthy on a neutral field they have a much better power ranking (#24 in the league). While not completely impossible, their chances of winning the Super Bowl is under 0.1 percent. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. The Panthers are averaging 5.9 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 8 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #15 in the NFC. They went 5-11 last season. They were not good against the spread going 6-9-1 (-390 loss).

29NEW YORK JETS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 7.5 Wins
Win 32% of Neutral Field Simulations

They do not have any real chance to win the Super Bowl. Current Odds are 80/1, 1.2%. The Jets are averaging 5.8 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 7.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the AFC. They went 7-9 last season. They also went 7-9 against the spread for a loss (-290 units).

30WASHINGTON REDSKINS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 6 Wins
Win 32% of Neutral Field Simulations

They have no chance to win the Super Bowl. Current Odds are 200/1, 0.5%. The Redskins are averaging 5.5 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 6 wins. In simulations they finish last in the NFC based on projected wins. They went 3-13 last season. They were not good against the spread going 6-10 (-500 loss).

31CINCINNATI BENGALS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 6 Wins
Win 31% of Neutral Field Simulations

They have no chance to win the Super Bowl. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. The Bengals are averaging 4.9 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 6 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #15 in the AFC. They went 2-14 last season. They were not good against the spread going 6-9-1 (-390 loss).

32MIAMI DOLPHINS 0-0 | Futures Result: Under 4.5 Wins
Win 24% of Neutral Field Simulations

They do not win the Super Bowl in any simulations. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 4.5 games. The Dolphins are averaging 4.3 wins per sim. In simulations they finish last in the AFC based on projected wins. They overachieved last season. Their game odds projected to 3.5 wins. Their 5-11 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them.