NFL Power Ranking: Kansas City Chiefs #1 and San Francisco 49ers #2

1KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 12-4 | Futures Result: Over 10.5 Wins
Win 75% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their power ranking is better than their record would indicate. Their current chance to win the Super Bowl are 42%. Current Odds are 7/2, 22.2%. Their regular season win total had them at #2 in the AFC. After 16 games, their expected win percentage is 65% based on the money line odds. At 12-4 they ahead of expectations. With a 12-4 record they managed to beat the high expectations that oddsmakers had of them (expected win percentage = 65%). They were very good against the money line (+289).

2SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 13-3 | Futures Result: Over 8 Wins
Win 70% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their current chance to win the Super Bowl are 36.9%. Current Odds are 7/2, 22.2%. They finished the regular season with the best record in the NFC. After 16 games, their expected win percentage is 63% based on the money line odds. They are beating expectations with their 13-3 record. With a 13-3 record they managed to beat the high expectations that oddsmakers had of them (expected win percentage = 63%). In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +471.

3TENNESSEE TITANS 10-7 | Futures Result: Over 8 Wins
Win 56% of Neutral Field Simulations

They win the championship in 10.8% of simulations. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. Their regular season win total had them at #5 in the AFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 8.2-7.8. At 10-7 they ahead of expectations. Their 10-7 record this season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their expected win percentage was just 52%. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +255. Their championship based ranking is much better than their #9 ranking based on our neutral field simulations.

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4GREEN BAY PACKERS 13-3 | Futures Result: Over 9 Wins
Win 56% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are much worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #10 in the league. They win the championship in 10.3% of simulations. Current Odds are 7/1, 12.5%. Their regular season win total had them at #2 in the NFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 9.9-6.1. At 13-3 they are well ahead of expectations. Their 13-3 record this season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 9.9-6.1. They were very good against the money line (+556).

5BALTIMORE RAVENS 14-2 | Futures Result: Over 8.5 Wins
Win 74% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #2 team in the league. They finished the regular season with the best record in the AFC. They were a +170 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. With a 14-2 record they managed to beat the high expectations that oddsmakers had of them (expected win percentage = 66%). They were very good against the money line (+503). They were very good against the spread going 10-5-1 for (+450 profit). They went over 9 times and came in under 7 times.

6NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 13-4 | Futures Result: Over 10.5 Wins
Win 69% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their regular season win total had them at #3 in the NFC. They were a -330 'favorite' to make the playoffs in the preseason. With a 13-4 record they managed to beat the high expectations that oddsmakers had of them (expected win percentage = 62%). In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +631. They were very good against the spread going 11-5 for (+550 profit). They went over 9 times and came in under 7 times. They are better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #4 team in the league.

7NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 12-5 | Futures Result: Over 11 Wins
Win 65% of Neutral Field Simulations

If healthy on a neutral field they have a better power ranking (#5 in the league). Their regular season win total had them at #3 in the AFC. They were a -800 'favorite' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Their 12-5 record this season was very disappointing. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 12.2-3.8. They broke even against the money line. They were down slightly (-130) against the money line. They were solid against the spread going 9-7 for (+130 profit). More of their games came in under (9) than went over (7).

8HOUSTON TEXANS 11-6 | Futures Result: Over 8.5 Wins
Win 49% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their regular season win total had them at #4 in the AFC. They were a +110 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. They overachieved this season. Their game odds projected to 8.1 wins. Their 11-6 record this season was way ahead of what was expected of them. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +338. They went 7-8-1 against the spread (-180 loss). More of their games came in under (9) than went over (7). They are much worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #17 in the league.

9PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 9-8 | Futures Result: Under 10 Wins
Win 53% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their regular season win total had them at #7 in the NFC. They were a -240 'favorite' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Oddsmakers expected them to win 9.4 based on their money line game odds. Their 9-8 record this season was very disappointing. They broke even against the money line. They were down slightly (-140) against the money line. They were not good against the spread going 7-9 (-290 loss). They went over 8 times and came in under 8 times. They are much worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #14 in the league.

10SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 12-5 | Futures Result: Over 9 Wins
Win 54% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their power ranking is worse than their record would indicate. They are worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #13 in the league. Their regular season win total had them at #4 in the NFC. They were a +135 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. They overachieved this season. Their game odds projected to 9.3 wins. Their 12-5 record this season was way ahead of what was expected of them. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +383. They went 7-8-1 against the spread (-180 loss). They went over 9 times and came in under 7 times.

11MINNESOTA VIKINGS 11-6 | Futures Result: Over 9 Wins
Win 59% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are much better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #7 team in the league. Their regular season win total had them at #5 in the NFC. They were a +100 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. They were expected to win 61% of their games this season so their 11-6 met expectations. They broke even against the money line. They were down slightly (-81) against the money line. They were solid against the spread going 9-7 for (+130 profit). They went over 9 times and came in under 7 times.

12BUFFALO BILLS 10-7 | Futures Result: Over 7 Wins
Win 55% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their regular season win total had them at #6 in the AFC. Their playoff chances stand at 80.9% (0% to win the division). They overachieved this season. Their game odds projected to 8.1 wins. Their 10-7 record this season was way ahead of what was expected of them. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +247. They were very good against the spread going 9-6-1 for (+240 profit). More of their games came in under (12) than went over (4).

13LOS ANGELES RAMS 9-7 | Futures Result: Under 10.5 Wins
Win 62% of Neutral Field Simulations

If healthy on a neutral field they have a much better power ranking (#6 in the league). Their regular season win total had them at #6 in the NFC. They were a -300 'favorite' to make the playoffs in the preseason. They were expected to win 59% of their games this season so their 9-7 met expectations. They broke even against the money line. They were down slightly (-198) against the money line. They were very good against the spread going 10-5-1 for (+450 profit). More of their games came in under (9) than went over (7).

14DALLAS COWBOYS 8-8 | Futures Result: Under 9 Wins
Win 58% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are much better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #8 team in the league. Their regular season win total had them at #8 in the NFC. They were a +105 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Oddsmakers expected them to win 10.6 based on their money line game odds. Their 8-8 record this season was very disappointing. Money Line bettors lost -502 on them. They were solid against the spread going 9-7 for (+130 profit). They went over 10 times and came in under 6 times.

15CHICAGO BEARS 8-8 | Futures Result: Under 9 Wins
Win 54% of Neutral Field Simulations

If healthy on a neutral field they have a better power ranking (#12 in the league). Their regular season win total had them at #9 in the NFC. They were a -120 'favorite' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Their 8-8 record this season failed to meet expectations. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 8.8-7.2. Against the money line they lost -310 units. They were not good against the spread going 4-12 (-920 loss). More of their games came in under (10) than went over (6).

16PITTSBURGH STEELERS 8-8 | Futures Result: Under 9.5 Wins
Win 49% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their championship based ranking is better than their #18 ranking based on our neutral field simulations. Their regular season win total had them at #7 in the AFC. They were a -150 'favorite' to make the playoffs in the preseason. They were expected to win 50% of their games this season so their 8-8 met expectations. They broke even against the money line. They were down slightly (-35) against the money line. They went 7-7-2 against the spread (-70 loss). More of their games came in under (12) than went over (4).

17INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 7-9 | Futures Result: Under 7.5 Wins
Win 50% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their regular season win total had them at #8 in the AFC. They were a +200 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Their 7-9 record this season was very disappointing. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 8-8. Against the money line they turned a +14 profit. They broke even against the money line. They went 7-7-2 against the spread (-70 loss). They went over 9 times and came in under 7 times.

18ATLANTA FALCONS 7-9 | Futures Result: Under 8.5 Wins
Win 48% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their regular season win total had them at #10 in the NFC. They were a +160 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Their 7-9 record this season failed to meet expectations. Their expected win percentage was 43%. They were very good against the money line (+511). They went 8-8 against the spread (-80 loss). More of their games came in under (9) than went over (7).

19DENVER BRONCOS 7-9 | Futures Result: Push 7 Wins
Win 48% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their regular season win total had them at #9 in the AFC. They were a +400 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. They were expected to win 40% of their games this season so their 7-9 met expectations. They performed solidly on the money line turning a +134 profit (100 units per). They were solid against the spread going 9-7 for (+130 profit). More of their games came in under (9) than went over (7).

20TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 7-9 | Futures Result: Over 6.5 Wins
Win 44% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their regular season win total had them at #11 in the NFC. They were a +500 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Their 7-9 record this season was very disappointing. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 7.6-8.4. Against the money line they turned a +64 profit. They broke even against the money line. They were not good against the spread going 5-9-2 (-490 loss). They went over 12 times and came in under 4 times. Their championship based ranking is better than their #22 ranking based on our neutral field simulations.

21OAKLAND RAIDERS 7-9 | Futures Result: Over 6 Wins
Win 36% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their regular season win total had them at #10 in the AFC. They were a +500 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. They were expected to win 41% of their games this season so their 7-9 met expectations. They performed solidly on the money line turning a +157 profit (100 units per). They went 8-8 against the spread (-80 loss). More of their games came in under (9) than went over (7).

22NEW YORK JETS 7-9 | Futures Result: Under 7.5 Wins
Win 33% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their regular season win total had them at #11 in the AFC. They were a +240 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Their 7-9 record this season was ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 5.9-10.1. Against the money line they turned a +56 profit. They broke even against the money line. They also went 7-9 against the spread for a loss (-290 units). More of their games came in under (9) than went over (7).

23CLEVELAND BROWNS 6-10 | Futures Result: Under 9 Wins
Win 45% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their regular season win total had them at #12 in the AFC. They were a -110 'favorite' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Oddsmakers expected them to win 8.3 based on their money line game odds. Their 6-10 record this season was very disappointing. Against the money line they lost -503 units. They were not good against the spread going 5-10-1 (-600 loss). They went over 8 times and came in under 8 times. If healthy on a neutral field they have a better power ranking (#21 in the league).

24JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 6-10 | Futures Result: Under 8 Wins
Win 37% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their regular season win total had them at #13 in the AFC. They were a +130 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. They were expected to win 42% of their games this season so their 6-10 met expectations. Money Line bettors lost -203 on them. They were not good against the spread going 7-9 (-290 loss). They went over 8 times and came in under 7 times.

25LOS ANGELES CHARGERS 5-11 | Futures Result: Under 10 Wins
Win 52% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their regular season win total had them at #14 in the AFC. They were a -190 'favorite' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Their 5-11 record this season was very disappointing. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 8.8-7.2. Money Line bettors lost -662 on them. They were not good against the spread going 4-9-3 (-590 loss). More of their games came in under (9) than went over (7). They are much better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #15 team in the league.

26ARIZONA CARDINALS 5-10-1 | Futures Result: Push 5 Wins
Win 42% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their regular season win total had them at #12 in the NFC. They were a +1000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. They were expected to win 33% of their games this season so their 5-10-1 met expectations. They broke even against the money line. They were down slightly (-198) against the money line. They were very good against the spread going 9-5-2 for (+350 profit). They went over 9 times and came in under 7 times. They are better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #23 team in the league.

27CAROLINA PANTHERS 5-11 | Futures Result: Under 8 Wins
Win 38% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their regular season win total had them at #13 in the NFC. They were a +220 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Oddsmakers expected them to win 7.2 based on their money line game odds. Their 5-11 record this season was very disappointing. Money Line bettors lost -590 on them. They were not good against the spread going 6-9-1 (-390 loss). They went over 11 times and came in under 5 times. If healthy on a neutral field they have a better power ranking (#25 in the league).

28MIAMI DOLPHINS 5-11 | Futures Result: Over 4.5 Wins
Win 26% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their regular season win total had them at #15 in the AFC. They were a +1200 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. They overachieved this season. Their game odds projected to 3.5 wins. Their 5-11 record this season was way ahead of what was expected of them. They were very good against the money line (+822). They were solid against the spread going 9-7 for (+130 profit). They went over 9 times and came in under 7 times.

29NEW YORK GIANTS 4-12 | Futures Result: Under 6 Wins
Win 35% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their regular season win total had them at #14 in the NFC. They were a +500 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Their 4-12 record this season was very disappointing. Their expected win percentage was 39%. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-811) based on a 100 unit risk per game. They were not good against the spread going 7-9 (-290 loss). They went over 10 times and came in under 6 times.

30DETROIT LIONS 3-12-1 | Futures Result: Under 6.5 Wins
Win 40% of Neutral Field Simulations

If healthy on a neutral field they have a much better power ranking (#24 in the league). Their regular season win total had them at #15 in the NFC. They were a +325 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Oddsmakers had low expectations for them this season (expected win percentage = 37%) and they failed to live up to even these low expectations going 3-12-1. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-981) based on a 100 unit risk per game. They were not good against the spread going 6-10 (-500 loss). They went over 10 times and came in under 6 times.

31WASHINGTON REDSKINS 3-13 | Futures Result: Under 6 Wins
Win 33% of Neutral Field Simulations

They finished the regular season with the worst record in the NFC. They were a +550 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Oddsmakers had low expectations for them this season (expected win percentage = 29%) and they failed to live up to even these low expectations going 3-13. Against the money line they lost -658 units. They were not good against the spread going 6-10 (-500 loss). They went over 8 times and came in under 8 times.

32CINCINNATI BENGALS 2-14 | Futures Result: Under 6 Wins
Win 33% of Neutral Field Simulations

They finished the regular season with the worst record in the AFC. They were a +750 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Oddsmakers had low expectations for them this season (expected win percentage = 32%) and they failed to live up to even these low expectations going 2-14. Putting a 100 units on them to win every game would have cost you -1158 units. They were not good against the spread going 6-9-1 (-390 loss). More of their games came in under (8) than went over (7).