NFL Power Ranking: New Orleans Saints Over Top Spot in NFC Over San Francisco

1NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 8-1 | 2019 Projection: 13 Wins
Win 72% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their simulation based win percentage (29.1%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 12/5, 29.4%. They are projected to win 13 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 11. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the AFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 7.2-1.8. At 8-1 they ahead of expectations.

2NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 7-1 | 2019 Projection: 13 Wins
Win 70% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their simulation based win percentage (18.9%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 4/1, 20%. They are projected to win 13 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 10.5. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the NFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 4.1-3.9. They are beating expectations with their 7-1 record.

3SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 8-0 | 2019 Projection: 13 Wins
Win 69% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are a good bet to win the Super Bowl (18.1 percent chance). Current Odds are 7/1, 12.5%. Their pre-season futures line was 8 wins so they have a push with 8 games remaining. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the NFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 5-3. At 8-0 they are clearly way ahead of expectations.

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4BALTIMORE RAVENS 6-2 | 2019 Projection: 11 Wins
Win 64% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #6 in the league. If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Ravens would be a good betting value. Their 9.6% chance to win the Super Bowl (based on simulations) is #4 in the league. Current Odds are 8/1, 11.1%. They are projected to win 11 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 8.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the AFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 4.9-3.1. At 6-2 they are well ahead of expectations.

5KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 6-3 | 2019 Projection: 10 Wins
Win 67% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 8.1% chance is #5 in the league. Current Odds are 8/1, 11.1%. They are projected to win 10 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 10.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the AFC. After 9 games, their expected win percentage is 61% based on the money line odds. At 6-3 they ahead of expectations.

6LOS ANGELES RAMS 5-3 | 2019 Projection: 10 Wins
Win 65% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 2.4% chance is #6 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. They are projected to win 10 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 10.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the NFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 5-3. At 5-3 they are in line with these expectations. Their power ranking is better than their record would indicate.

7HOUSTON TEXANS 6-3 | 2019 Projection: 10 Wins
Win 55% of Neutral Field Simulations

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 2.1% chance is #7 in the league. Current Odds are 25/1, 3.8%. They are projected to win 10 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 8.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the AFC. After 9 games, their expected win percentage is 53% based on the money line odds. At 6-3 they are well ahead of expectations. Their championship based ranking is much better than their #11 ranking based on our neutral field simulations.

8GREEN BAY PACKERS 7-2 | 2019 Projection: 11 Wins
Win 55% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their championship based ranking is much better than their #12 ranking based on our neutral field simulations. Their 2.1% chance is #8 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 14/1, 6.7%. They are projected to win 11 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 9. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the NFC. After 9 games, their expected win percentage is 60% based on the money line odds. At 7-2 they are well ahead of expectations.

9MINNESOTA VIKINGS 6-3 | 2019 Projection: 10 Wins
Win 61% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #7 team in the league. Their 2% chance is #9 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 25/1, 3.8%. They are projected to win 10 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 9. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the NFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 5.8-3.2. They are ahead of expectations with their 6-3 record.

10SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 7-2 | 2019 Projection: 10 Wins
Win 57% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 1.9% chance is #10 in the league. Current Odds are 25/1, 3.8%. They are projected to win 10 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 9. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the NFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 5.5-3.5. At 7-2 they are well ahead of expectations.

11DALLAS COWBOYS 5-3 | 2019 Projection: 9 Wins
Win 60% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 1.6% chance is #11 in the league. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. They are projected to win 9 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 9. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the NFC. After 8 games, their expected win percentage is 71% based on the money line odds. At 5-3 they are short of expectations. They are better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #8 team in the league.

12PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 5-4 | 2019 Projection: 9 Wins
Win 53% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 1% chance is #12 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 25/1, 3.8%. They are projected to win 9 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 10. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the NFC. After 9 games, their expected win percentage is 57% based on the money line odds. At 5-4 they are in line with these expectations. Their championship based ranking is much better than their #16 ranking based on our neutral field simulations.

13BUFFALO BILLS 6-2 | 2019 Projection: 10 Wins
Win 48% of Neutral Field Simulations

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.6% chance is #13 in the league. Current Odds are 60/1, 1.6%. They are projected to win 10 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 7. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the AFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 4.5-3.5. They are beating expectations with their 6-2 record. Their power ranking is worse than their record would indicate. Their championship based ranking is much better than their #20 ranking based on our neutral field simulations.

14INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 5-3 | 2019 Projection: 9 Wins
Win 49% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are much worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #19 in the league. They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 0.6% chance is #14 in the league. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. They are projected to win 9 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 7.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the AFC. After 8 games, their expected win percentage is 47% based on the money line odds. They are ahead of expectations with their 5-3 record.

15PITTSBURGH STEELERS 4-4 | 2019 Projection: 8 Wins
Win 49% of Neutral Field Simulations

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.4% chance is #15 in the league. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. They are projected to win 8 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 9.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the AFC. After 8 games, their expected win percentage is 49% based on the money line odds. At 4-4 they are in line with these expectations. Their championship based ranking is better than their #18 ranking based on our neutral field simulations.

16CAROLINA PANTHERS 5-3 | 2019 Projection: 9 Wins
Win 54% of Neutral Field Simulations

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.4% chance is #16 in the league. Current Odds are 60/1, 1.6%. They are projected to win 9 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 8. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the NFC. After 8 games, their expected win percentage is 51% based on the money line odds. They are ahead of expectations with their 5-3 record.

17LOS ANGELES CHARGERS 4-6 | 2019 Projection: 7 Wins
Win 56% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 0.2% chance is #17 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 80/1, 1.2%. They are projected to win 7 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 10. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the AFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 5.7-4.3. They are coming up well short of expectations with their 4-6 record. They are much better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #10 team in the league.

18DETROIT LIONS 3-4-1 | 2019 Projection: 7.3 Wins
Win 55% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are much better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #13 team in the league. They win the Super Bowl in 0.2% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. Current Odds are 500/1, 0.2%. They are projected to win 7 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 6.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the NFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 3.6-4.4. At 3-4-1 they are in line with these expectations.

19OAKLAND RAIDERS 5-4 | 2019 Projection: 9 Wins
Win 44% of Neutral Field Simulations

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.1% chance is #19 in the league. Current Odds are 80/1, 1.2%. They are projected to win 8 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 6. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the AFC. After 9 games, their expected win percentage is 35% based on the money line odds. At 5-4 they are well ahead of expectations. They are much worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #24 in the league.

20JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 4-5 | 2019 Projection: 8 Wins
Win 46% of Neutral Field Simulations

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.1% chance is #20 in the league. Current Odds are 300/1, 0.3%. They are projected to win 8 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 8. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the AFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 4.4-4.6. At 4-5 they are short of expectations.

21CHICAGO BEARS 3-5 | 2019 Projection: 7 Wins
Win 55% of Neutral Field Simulations

They win the Super Bowl in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 200/1, 0.5%. They are projected to win 7 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 9. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the NFC. After 8 games, their expected win percentage is 59% based on the money line odds. At 3-5 they are coming up well short of expectations. They are much better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #14 team in the league.

22TENNESSEE TITANS 4-5 | 2019 Projection: 7 Wins
Win 45% of Neutral Field Simulations

While not completely impossible, their chances of winning the Super Bowl is under 0.1 percent. Current Odds are 300/1, 0.3%. They are projected to win 7 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 8. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the AFC. After 9 games, their expected win percentage is 49% based on the money line odds. They are coming up short of expectations at 4-5.

23CLEVELAND BROWNS 2-6 | 2019 Projection: 7 Wins
Win 51% of Neutral Field Simulations

If healthy on a neutral field they have a much better power ranking (#17 in the league). While not completely impossible, their chances of winning the Super Bowl is under 0.1 percent. Current Odds are 200/1, 0.5%. They are projected to win 7 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 9. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the AFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 3.7-4.3. At 2-6 they are coming up well short of expectations.

24ARIZONA CARDINALS 3-5-1 | 2019 Projection: 5.6 Wins
Win 44% of Neutral Field Simulations

They win the Super Bowl in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 2000/1. They are projected to win 6 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the NFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 3-6. They are ahead of expectations with their 3-5-1 record.

25DENVER BRONCOS 3-6 | 2019 Projection: 6 Wins
Win 42% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are projected to win 6 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 7. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the AFC. Their playoff chances are under 1%. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 3.7-5.3. At 3-6 they are short of expectations.

26NEW YORK GIANTS 2-7 | 2019 Projection: 5 Wins
Win 37% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are projected to win 5 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 6. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the NFC. Their playoff chances are under 1%. After 9 games, their expected win percentage is 37% based on the money line odds. They are coming up well short of expectations with their 2-7 record.

27TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 2-6 | 2019 Projection: 5 Wins
Win 41% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are projected to win 5 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 6.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the NFC. Their playoff chances are under 1%. After 8 games, their expected win percentage is 42% based on the money line odds. At 2-6 they are coming up well short of expectations.

28WASHINGTON REDSKINS 1-8 | 2019 Projection: 3 Wins
Win 30% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are projected to win 4 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 6. In simulations they finish last in the NFC based on projected wins. Their playoff chances are under 1%. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 2.5-6.5. They are coming up well short of expectations with their 1-8 record.

29NEW YORK JETS 1-7 | 2019 Projection: 3 Wins
Win 20% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are projected to win 3 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 7.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the AFC. Their playoff chances are under 1%. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 2.4-5.6. At 1-7 they are coming up well short of expectations.

30CINCINNATI BENGALS 0-8 | 2019 Projection: 3 Wins
Win 30% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are projected to win 3 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 6. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #15 in the AFC. Their playoff chances are under 1%. After 8 games, their expected win percentage is 33% based on the money line odds. Obviously with a 0-8 record coming up well short of expectations.

31ATLANTA FALCONS 1-7 | 2019 Projection: 4 Wins
Win 38% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are projected to win 4 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 8.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #15 in the NFC. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +160 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 3.5-4.5. They are coming up well short of expectations with their 1-7 record.

32MIAMI DOLPHINS 1-7 | 2019 Projection: 3 Wins
Win 19% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are projected to win 3 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 4.5. In simulations they finish last in the AFC based on projected wins. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +1200 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. After 8 games, their expected win percentage is 18% based on the money line odds. At 1-7 they are short of expectations.