NFL Power Ranking: San Francisco Moves Up 10 Spots After Dominating the Browns Who Fall to #18

1NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 5-0 | 2019 Projection: 14 Wins
Win 75% of Neutral Field Simulations

If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Patriots would be a good betting value. Their 35.7% chance to win the Super Bowl (based on simulations) is #1 in the league. Current Odds are 9/5, 35.7%. They are projected to win 14 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 11. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the AFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 4.2-0.8. Obviously with a 5-0 record they are exceeding expectations.

2NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 4-1 | 2019 Projection: 11 Wins
Win 66% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their defense has looked terrific and now their offense looks great even without Drew Brees. This is the best team in the NFC. They are a good bet to win the Super Bowl (13.4 percent chance). Current Odds are 8/1, 11.1%. They are projected to win 11 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 10.5. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the NFC. After 5 games, their expected win percentage is 51% based on the money line odds. At 4-1 they are well ahead of expectations.

3KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 4-1 | 2019 Projection: 11 Wins
Win 67% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their simulation based win percentage (13.1%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 6/1, 14.3%. They are projected to win 11 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 10.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the AFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 3.6-1.4. At 4-1 they ahead of expectations.

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4SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 4-0 | 2019 Projection: 11 Wins
Win 61% of Neutral Field Simulations

The NFC West will likely come down to head-to-head results so Week 6 will be huge. Right now the 49ers hold the top spot in the NFC West but all 3 contenders have between a 29 and 35 percent chance. They are a good bet to win the Super Bowl (7.6 percent chance). Current Odds are 14/1, 6.7%. They are projected to win 11 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 8. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the NFC. Based on the money lines, the 49ers had an expected win percentage of 59% after 4 games. At 4-0, they are beating expectations.

5LOS ANGELES RAMS 3-2 | 2019 Projection: 10 Wins
Win 64% of Neutral Field Simulations

The 49ers win over the Browns and impressive defensive performance makes them the leader in the division. But the Rams are one head-to-head win vs SF away from taking back the top spot. They win the Super Bowl in 5.3% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. They are projected to win 10 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 10.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the NFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 3-2. At 3-2 they are in line with these expectations.

6GREEN BAY PACKERS 4-1 | 2019 Projection: 10 Wins
Win 59% of Neutral Field Simulations

Even though they are not a good betting value the Packers impressive road win vs Dallas vaulted them to the top of their tough division in terms of percent hcance to make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 3.3% chance is #6 in the league. Current Odds are 16/1, 5.9%. They are projected to win 10 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 9. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the NFC. After 5 games, their expected win percentage is 55% based on the money line odds. At 4-1 they are well ahead of expectations. Their championship based ranking is better than their #8 ranking based on our neutral field simulations.

7PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 3-2 | 2019 Projection: 10 Wins
Win 57% of Neutral Field Simulations

With back-to-back wins the Eagles are back into the Top 10 in Power Ranking after being as low as #16 just a few weeks ago. Their rise correspondes with the Cowboys fall. Their 3.2% chance is #7 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 16/1, 5.9%. They are projected to win 10 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 10. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the NFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 3.2-1.8. At 3-2 they are in line with these expectations. They are much worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #11 in the league.

8SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 4-1 | 2019 Projection: 10 Wins
Win 58% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 2.9% chance is #8 in the league. Current Odds are 18/1, 5.3%. They are projected to win 10 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 9. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the NFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 3.1-1.9. They are beating expectations with their 4-1 record.

9MINNESOTA VIKINGS 3-2 | 2019 Projection: 9 Wins
Win 60% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #6 team in the league. Their 2.3% chance is #9 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. They are projected to win 9 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 9. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the NFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 3-2. At 3-2 they are in line with these expectations.

10DETROIT LIONS 2-1-1 | 2019 Projection: 8.7 Wins
Win 56% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Lions were our pre-season best value to win over their Vegas win total and if not for a late Week 1 collapse they would be 3-0 instead of 2-0-1. They are currently projected for over 8 wins which would be well over their pre-season 6.5 win line despite losing to the Chiefs in Week 4. They win the Super Bowl in 1.9% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. Current Odds are 60/1, 1.6%. They are projected to win 9 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 6.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the NFC. At 2-1-1 they are exceeding expectations. Based on the money lines, the Lions had an expected win percentage of 41%. Their championship based ranking is better than their #12 ranking based on our neutral field simulations.

11BALTIMORE RAVENS 3-2 | 2019 Projection: 9 Wins
Win 54% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their championship based ranking is better than their #13 ranking based on our neutral field simulations. Anytime you win a road game in the division it will have a significant impact on your chances of winning the division. The Ravens did not look great and they do not look like legit contenders, but they are in a good spot to make the playoffs and get valuable experience. Their 1.7% chance is #11 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. They are projected to win 9 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 8.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the AFC. After 5 games, their expected win percentage is 66% based on the money line odds. At 3-2 they are short of expectations.

12LOS ANGELES CHARGERS 2-3 | 2019 Projection: 8 Wins
Win 60% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 1.6% chance is #12 in the league. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. They are projected to win 8 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 10. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the AFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 3.4-1.6. They are coming up well short of expectations with their 2-3 record. Their power ranking is better than their record would indicate. They are much better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #7 team in the league.

13BUFFALO BILLS 4-1 | 2019 Projection: 10 Wins
Win 52% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their power ranking is much worse than their record would indicate. They are much worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #15 in the league. In Week 4 they lost at home to the Patriots the Bills' playoff chances dipped just a few percentage points because of losses by the Ravens, Texans and Colts. Their impressive road win in Week 5 vs a likely Wildcard competitor boosts their chances even more. If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Bills would be a good betting value. Their 1.5% chance to win the Super Bowl (based on simulations) is #13 in the league. Current Odds are 60/1, 1.6%. They are projected to win 10 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 7. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the AFC. After 5 games, their expected win percentage is 46% based on the money line odds. At 4-1 they are well ahead of expectations.

14CHICAGO BEARS 3-2 | 2019 Projection: 9 Wins
Win 58% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 1.2% chance is #14 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. They are projected to win 9 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 9. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the NFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 3.1-1.9. At 3-2 they are in line with these expectations. If healthy on a neutral field they have a much better power ranking (#10 in the league).

15INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 3-2 | 2019 Projection: 9 Wins
Win 50% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Colts amazing defensive effort and ability to dominate ball control showed what is possible if you can run the ball and get to Patrick Mahomes. With this huge win the Colts are the top team in the AFC South. Their 1% chance is #15 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 60/1, 1.6%. They are projected to win 9 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 7.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the AFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 2.1-2.9. They are beating expectations with their 3-2 record. They are much worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #20 in the league.

16DALLAS COWBOYS 3-2 | 2019 Projection: 8 Wins
Win 53% of Neutral Field Simulations

After two losses vs likely Wildcard competition the Cowboys playoff chances dropped to under 35 percent. They are barely in the top half of the league in chance to win the Super Bowl. They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 0.9% chance is #16 in the league. Current Odds are 18/1, 5.3%. They are projected to win 8 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 9. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the NFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 3.6-1.4. They are coming up short of expectations at 3-2. If healthy on a neutral field they have a better power ranking (#14 in the league).

17CLEVELAND BROWNS 2-3 | 2019 Projection: 8 Wins
Win 51% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 0.8% chance is #17 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 60/1, 1.6%. They are projected to win 8 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 9. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the AFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 2.3-2.7. At 2-3 they are short of expectations.

18HOUSTON TEXANS 3-2 | 2019 Projection: 8 Wins
Win 51% of Neutral Field Simulations

Dominating the Falcons may be a confidence builder but it does not help their playoff chances much because it was a home game they are supposed to win vs a non-conference opponent. It also hurts that the Colts won an impressive game vs the Chiefs. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.8% chance is #18 in the league. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. They are projected to win 8 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 8.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the AFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 2.8-2.2. At 3-2 they are in line with these expectations.

19JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 2-3 | 2019 Projection: 8 Wins
Win 50% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 0.6% chance is #19 in the league. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. They are projected to win 8 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 8. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the AFC. After 5 games, their expected win percentage is 37% based on the money line odds. At 2-3 they are in line with these expectations.

20CAROLINA PANTHERS 3-2 | 2019 Projection: 8 Wins
Win 50% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 0.4% chance is #20 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. They are projected to win 8 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 8. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the NFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 2.6-2.4. At 3-2 they ahead of expectations.

21TENNESSEE TITANS 2-3 | 2019 Projection: 7 Wins
Win 50% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #19 team in the league. They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 0.3% chance is #21 in the league. Current Odds are 200/1, 0.5%. They are projected to win 7 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 8. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the AFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 2.5-2.5. At 2-3 they are short of expectations.

22PITTSBURGH STEELERS 1-4 | 2019 Projection: 7 Wins
Win 49% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 0.3% chance is #22 in the league. Current Odds are 300/1, 0.3%. They are projected to win 7 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 9.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the AFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 2.3-2.7. At 1-4 they are coming up well short of expectations.

23TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 2-3 | 2019 Projection: 7 Wins
Win 45% of Neutral Field Simulations

While not completely impossible, their chances of winning the Super Bowl is under 0.1 percent. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. They are projected to win 7 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 6.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the NFC. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 2.1-2.9. At 2-3 they are in line with these expectations.

24NEW YORK GIANTS 2-3 | 2019 Projection: 7 Wins
Win 40% of Neutral Field Simulations

They do not have any real chance to win the Super Bowl. Current Odds are 500/1, 0.2%. They are projected to win 7 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 6. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the NFC. After 5 games, their expected win percentage is 40% based on the money line odds. At 2-3 they are in line with these expectations.

25OAKLAND RAIDERS 3-2 | 2019 Projection: 7 Wins
Win 40% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Raiders were given under a 3 percent chance to make the playoffs before the season. At 3-2 the Raiders are up to nearly a 15 percent chance to make the playoffs. They do not have any real chance to win the Super Bowl. Current Odds are 200/1, 0.5%. They are projected to win 7 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 6. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the AFC. After 5 games, their expected win percentage is 30% based on the money line odds. At 3-2 they are well ahead of expectations. Expect them to fade in the standings because their record based ranking is better based on their power ranking.

26DENVER BRONCOS 1-4 | 2019 Projection: 5 Wins
Win 41% of Neutral Field Simulations

They do not have any real chance to win the Super Bowl. Current Odds are 500/1, 0.2%. They are projected to win 5 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 7. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the AFC. After 5 games, their expected win percentage is 43% based on the money line odds. At 1-4 they are coming up well short of expectations.

27ARIZONA CARDINALS 1-3-1 | 2019 Projection: 5 Wins
Win 41% of Neutral Field Simulations

As teams tank for Tua the Cardinals are clearly a team on the rise. While their playoff chances are minimal they are clearly a step ahead of most other non-playoff teams. If they were in the AFC they might be a 7 win team. They do not have any real chance to win the Super Bowl. Current Odds are 500/1, 0.2%. They are projected to win 5 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #15 in the NFC. After 5 games, their expected win percentage is 37% based on the money line odds. At 1-3-1 they are coming up well short of expectations. If healthy on a neutral field they have a better power ranking (#25 in the league).

28ATLANTA FALCONS 1-4 | 2019 Projection: 5 Wins
Win 42% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are much better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #24 team in the league. The Falcons were a popular pre-season pick to win the division and make the playoffs. But they are a Nelson Agholor drop away from being 0-5 and look poised to come well under their pre-season 8.5 win line which Scout predicted they would. They are projected to win 5 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 8.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the NFC. Their playoff chances are under 1%. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 2.3-2.7. At 1-4 they are coming up well short of expectations.

29WASHINGTON REDSKINS 0-5 | 2019 Projection: 4 Wins
Win 31% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are projected to win 4 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 6. In simulations they finish last in the NFC based on projected wins. Their playoff chances are under 1%. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 1.3-3.7. Obviously with a 0-5 record coming up well short of expectations.

30CINCINNATI BENGALS 0-5 | 2019 Projection: 4 Wins
Win 33% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are projected to win 4 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 6. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the AFC. Their playoff chances are under 1%. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 2-3. Obviously with a 0-5 record coming up well short of expectations.

31NEW YORK JETS 0-4 | 2019 Projection: 4 Wins
Win 22% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are projected to win 4 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 7.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #15 in the AFC. Their playoff chances are under 1%. Based on the money lines, the Jets had an expected win percentage of 27% after 4 games. At 0-4, they are short of expectations in this early part of the season.

32MIAMI DOLPHINS 0-4 | 2019 Projection: 2 Wins
Win 14% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are projected to win 2 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 4.5. In simulations they finish last in the AFC based on projected wins. Their playoff chances are under 1%. Based on the money lines, the Dolphins had an expected win percentage of 13% after 4 games. At 0-4, they are short of expectations in this early part of the season.