NFL Power Rankings After Week 1: Ravens, Cowboys Rise... Browns, Steelers Fall… Patriots #1 By a Lot

1NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 1-0 | 2019 Projection: 12 Wins
Win 71% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Patriots were a good 17% value at 6/1, 14.3% to win the Super Bowl before they signed Antonio Brown. Immediately after the signing they improved to 21% in the simulations with 4/1, 20% odds. After a dominating Week 1 win the Patriots are head and shoulders above some really good teams. They win the Super Bowl in 25.9% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. Current Odds are 3/1, 25%. They are projected to win 12 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 11. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the AFC. The Patriots were favored in their first game and they did win. Their 11-5 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their expected win percentage was 72%.

2NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 1-0 | 2019 Projection: 11 Wins
Win 64% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are a good bet to win the Super Bowl (12.8 percent chance). Current Odds are 10/1, 9.1%. They are projected to win 11 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 10.5. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the NFC. The Saints were favored in their first game and they did win. With a 13-3 record they managed to beat the high expectations that oddsmakers had of them (expected win percentage = 68%). Their championship based ranking is better than their #4 ranking based on our neutral field simulations.

3KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 1-0 | 2019 Projection: 11 Wins
Win 69% of Neutral Field Simulations

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 12.8% chance is #3 in the league. Current Odds are 5/1, 16.7%. They are projected to win 11 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 10.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the AFC. The Chiefs were favored in their first game and they did win. With a 12-4 record they managed to beat the high expectations that oddsmakers had of them (expected win percentage = 64%).

If you are looking for the best picks visit Sportsline.com where you get both objective computer simulation based picks and ones made by the industry's top handicappers.

4LOS ANGELES RAMS 1-0 | 2019 Projection: 11 Wins
Win 66% of Neutral Field Simulations

They win the Super Bowl in 12.3% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. Current Odds are 12/1, 7.7%. They are projected to win 11 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 10.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the NFC. The odds gave the Rams a 53% chance in their first game and they got a win. With a 13-3 record they managed to beat the high expectations that oddsmakers had of them (expected win percentage = 74%).

5BALTIMORE RAVENS 1-0 | 2019 Projection: 11 Wins
Win 60% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Ravens will not win by 50+ every game… bold prediction. Speed kills and the Ravens are the fastest team on both side of the ball. The Top 10 skill position players make a combined $25.7 Million which would make them the 10th highest paid player. The Ravens scored 59 vs an NFL Team with less than $26 Million. Once Dak Prescott signs they become the 11th highest paid "player". Even with the juice, the Ravens are a good betting value. Their 7% chance to win the Super Bowl (based on simulations) is #5 in the league. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. They are projected to win 10 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 8.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the AFC. The Ravens were favored in their first game and they did win. Their 10-6 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. Their expected win percentage was 58%.

6LOS ANGELES CHARGERS 1-0 | 2019 Projection: 10 Wins
Win 62% of Neutral Field Simulations

Even with the juice, the Chargers are a good betting value. Their 5.5% chance to win the Super Bowl (based on simulations) is #6 in the league. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. They are projected to win 10 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 10. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the AFC. The Chargers were favored in their first game and they did win. With a 12-4 record they managed to beat the high expectations that oddsmakers had of them (expected win percentage = 64%).

7PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 1-0 | 2019 Projection: 10 Wins
Win 58% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #9 in the league. Bet on the Eagles if you think Carson Wentz will return to 2017 form. But the sims still are going to rely heavily on 2018 stats where the Eagles were not nearly as good with Wentz. Week 1 was more of the same with the first half looking like 2018 and the second half looking like 2017. They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 4.4% chance is #7 in the league. Current Odds are 12/1, 7.7%. They are projected to win 10 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 10. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the NFC. The Eagles were favored in their first game and they did win. They were expected to win 56% of their games last season so their 9-7 met expectations.

8DALLAS COWBOYS 1-0 | 2019 Projection: 9 Wins
Win 58% of Neutral Field Simulations

They face 3 of the Final 4 teams from last season, two on the road (@NO, @NE, LAR). This makes their schedule much tougher. But our model clearly needed to disregard the first half of last season in projecting how the Cowboys would play. They look great. They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 3.5% chance is #8 in the league. Current Odds are 14/1, 6.7%. They are projected to win 9 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 9. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the NFC. The Cowboys were favored in their first game and they did win. Their 10-6 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 7.6-8.4.

9SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 1-0 | 2019 Projection: 9 Wins
Win 59% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their simulation based win percentage (3.5%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 25/1, 3.8%. They are projected to win 9 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 9. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the NFC. The Seahawks were favored in their first game and they did win. They overachieved last season. Their game odds projected to 8.2 wins. Their 10-6 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. They are better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #7 team in the league.

10MINNESOTA VIKINGS 1-0 | 2019 Projection: 9 Wins
Win 56% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 2.4% chance is #10 in the league. Current Odds are 16/1, 5.9%. They are projected to win 9 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 9. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the NFC. The Vikings were favored in their first game and they did win. Their 8-7-1 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their expected win percentage was 58%.

11GREEN BAY PACKERS 1-0 | 2019 Projection: 9 Wins
Win 55% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their championship based ranking is better than their #13 ranking based on our neutral field simulations. We do not want to overreact to one dominant performance against Mitch Trubisky, but it appears the heavy investment in defense (draft and free agency) has paid off for the Packers. Their projected points allowed has gone down to 21 per game (4 better than last season). This improvement helps them rise significantly. They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 2.3% chance is #11 in the league. Current Odds are 16/1, 5.9%. They are projected to win 9 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 9. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the NFC. The Packers were underdogs in their first game but they got an upset win. Oddsmakers expected them to win 9.1 based on their money line game odds. Their 6-9-1 record last season was very disappointing.

12TENNESSEE TITANS 1-0 | 2019 Projection: 9 Wins
Win 52% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are worse in our neutral power ranking where they are ranked just #15 in the league. The Titans were the only AFC South team to win in Week 1 and they are currently the favorite to win the division. Things can turn on a dime once you start playing against division opponents, but the combination of winning on the road, vs a playoff caliber team, and the good karma from humbling the Browns puts the Titans on top of their division. Their simulation based win percentage (1.6%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 50/1, 2%. They are projected to win 9 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 8. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the AFC. The Titans were underdogs in their first game but they got an upset win. Their 9-7 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their expected win percentage was just 47%.

13HOUSTON TEXANS 0-1 | 2019 Projection: 8 Wins
Win 53% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 1.1% chance is #13 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. They are projected to win 8 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 8.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the AFC. The Texans were underdogs in their first game and they lost as expected. Their 11-5 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 9.7-6.3.

14CLEVELAND BROWNS 0-1 | 2019 Projection: 8 Wins
Win 55% of Neutral Field Simulations

Expect 30+ TDs for Baker Mayfield by the end of the season but he could put up young Brett Favre type stats with 20+ interceptions. Their 56% playoff percentage at the start of the season was crushed after just one week. Losing home games to other playoff contenders combined with the Ravens dominating win combined with lousy game stats is as bad as it gets. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1% chance is #14 in the league. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. They are projected to win 8 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 9. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the AFC. The Browns were favored in their first game but they lost. Their 7-8-1 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 6.5-9.5. They are better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #12 team in the league.

15CHICAGO BEARS 0-1 | 2019 Projection: 8 Wins
Win 56% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are much better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #11 team in the league. They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 0.8% chance is #15 in the league. Current Odds are 25/1, 3.8%. They are projected to win 8 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 9. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the NFC. The Bears were favored in their first game but they lost. They overachieved last season. Their game odds projected to 9.6 wins. Their 12-4 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them.

16PITTSBURGH STEELERS 0-1 | 2019 Projection: 8 Wins
Win 52% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 0.7% chance is #16 in the league. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. They are projected to win 8 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 9.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the AFC. The Steelers were underdogs in their first game and they lost as expected. They were expected to win 60% of their games last season so their 9-6-1 met expectations.

17DETROIT LIONS 0-0-1 | 2019 Projection: 7.4 Wins
Win 51% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 0.7% chance is #17 in the league. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. They are projected to win 7 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 6.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the NFC. The Lions were favored in their first game but they ended up tying. Oddsmakers expected them to win 6.6 based on their money line game odds. Their 6-10 record last season failed to meet expectations.

18SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 1-0 | 2019 Projection: 8 Wins
Win 50% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 0.7% chance is #18 in the league. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. They are projected to win 8 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 8. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the NFC. The odds gave the 49ers a 48% chance in their first game and they got a win. Oddsmakers expected them to win 6.2 based on their money line game odds. Their 4-12 record last season was very disappointing.

19INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 0-1 | 2019 Projection: 8 Wins
Win 47% of Neutral Field Simulations

If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Colts would be a good betting value. Their 0.5% chance to win the Super Bowl (based on simulations) is #19 in the league. Current Odds are 200/1, 0.5%. They are projected to win 8 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 7.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the AFC. The Colts were underdogs in their first game and they lost as expected. Their 10-6 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 8.5-7.5.

20CAROLINA PANTHERS 0-1 | 2019 Projection: 7 Wins
Win 50% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #18 team in the league. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.3% chance is #20 in the league. Current Odds are 60/1, 1.6%. They are projected to win 7 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 8. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the NFC. The odds gave the Panthers a 47% chance in their first game and they lost. Their 7-9 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 7.9-8.1.

21BUFFALO BILLS 1-0 | 2019 Projection: 7 Wins
Win 38% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 0.1% chance is #21 in the league. Current Odds are 60/1, 1.6%. They are projected to win 7 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 7. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the AFC. The Bills were underdogs in their first game but they got an upset win. They overachieved last season. Their game odds projected to 5 wins. Their 6-10 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them.

22DENVER BRONCOS 0-1 | 2019 Projection: 6 Wins
Win 45% of Neutral Field Simulations

While not completely impossible, their chances of winning the Super Bowl is under 0.1 percent. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. They are projected to win 6 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 7. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the AFC. The Broncos were favored in their first game but they lost. Their 6-10 record last season was very disappointing. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 7.3-8.7.

23OAKLAND RAIDERS 1-0 | 2019 Projection: 6 Wins
Win 39% of Neutral Field Simulations

While not completely impossible, their chances of winning the Super Bowl is under 0.1 percent. Current Odds are 80/1, 1.2%. They are projected to win 6 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 6. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the AFC. The Raiders were underdogs in their first game but they got an upset win. Oddsmakers had low expectations for them last season (expected win percentage = 32%) and they failed to live up to even these low expectations going 4-12.

24WASHINGTON REDSKINS 0-1 | 2019 Projection: 6 Wins
Win 39% of Neutral Field Simulations

They do not have any real chance to win the Super Bowl. Current Odds are 500/1, 0.2%. They are projected to win 6 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 6. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the NFC. The Redskins were underdogs in their first game and they lost as expected. Their 7-9 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 6.3-9.7.

25ATLANTA FALCONS 0-1 | 2019 Projection: 6 Wins
Win 42% of Neutral Field Simulations

If healthy on a neutral field they have a better power ranking (#22 in the league). They do not have any real chance to win the Super Bowl. Current Odds are 60/1, 1.6%. They are projected to win 6 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 8.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the NFC. The Falcons were underdogs in their first game and they lost as expected. Oddsmakers expected them to win 8.8 based on their money line game odds. Their 7-9 record last season was very disappointing.

26NEW YORK GIANTS 0-1 | 2019 Projection: 6 Wins
Win 40% of Neutral Field Simulations

They win the Super Bowl in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 300/1, 0.3%. They are projected to win 6 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 6. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the NFC. The Giants were underdogs in their first game and they lost as expected. Their 5-11 record last season was very disappointing. Their expected win percentage was 42%.

27CINCINNATI BENGALS 0-1 | 2019 Projection: 6 Wins
Win 41% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are better in our neutral power ranking. Their sim win percentage vs every other team on a neutral field has them as the #24 team in the league. While not completely impossible, their chances of winning the Super Bowl is under 0.1 percent. Current Odds are 300/1, 0.3%. They are projected to win 6 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 6. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the AFC. The Bengals were underdogs in their first game and they lost as expected. Their 6-10 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their expected win percentage was 41%.

28JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 0-1 | 2019 Projection: 6 Wins
Win 41% of Neutral Field Simulations

If healthy on a neutral field they have a much better power ranking (#23 in the league). They win the Super Bowl in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 200/1, 0.5%. They are projected to win 6 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 8. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #15 in the AFC. The Jaguars were underdogs in their first game and they lost as expected. Their 5-11 record last season was very disappointing. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 8-8.

29NEW YORK JETS 0-1 | 2019 Projection: 6 Wins
Win 36% of Neutral Field Simulations

They do not have any real chance to win the Super Bowl. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. They are projected to win 6 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 7.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the AFC. The Jets were favored in their first game but they lost. Oddsmakers had low expectations for them last season (expected win percentage = 37%) and they failed to live up to even these low expectations going 4-12.

30ARIZONA CARDINALS 0-0-1 | 2019 Projection: 5.4 Wins
Win 38% of Neutral Field Simulations

While not completely impossible, their chances of winning the Super Bowl is under 0.1 percent. Current Odds are 300/1, 0.3%. They are projected to win 5 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #15 in the NFC. The Cardinals were underdogs in their first game but they ended up tying. Oddsmakers had low expectations for them last season (expected win percentage = 30%) and they failed to live up to even these low expectations going 3-13.

31TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 0-1 | 2019 Projection: 5 Wins
Win 35% of Neutral Field Simulations

While not completely impossible, their chances of winning the Super Bowl is under 0.1 percent. Current Odds are 300/1, 0.3%. They are projected to win 5 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 6.5. In simulations they finish last in the NFC based on projected wins. The odds gave the Buccaneers a 52% chance in their first game and they lost. Oddsmakers expected them to win 6.3 based on their money line game odds. Their 5-11 record last season was very disappointing.

32MIAMI DOLPHINS 0-1 | 2019 Projection: 4 Wins
Win 23% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are projected to win 4 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 4.5. In simulations they finish last in the AFC based on projected wins. Their playoff chances are under 1%. The Dolphins were underdogs in their first game and they lost as expected. Their 7-9 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their expected win percentage was just 37%.