NFL Power Rankings: Run First Baltimore Ravens (#11) and Seattle Seahawks (#9) are Underrated

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1KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 12-4 | 2019 Projection: 11 Wins
Win 69% of Neutral Field Simulations

With Tyreek Hill not suspended and the addition of even more speed in Darwin Thompson and Mecole Hardman the Chiefs, who were 1 possession away from the Super Bowl last season, look well positioned in 2019. They are a good bet to win the Super Bowl (17.8 percent chance). Current Odds are 6/1, 14.3%. The Chiefs are averaging 11 wins per sim which makes them a decent bet to win over 10.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the AFC. With a 12-4 record they managed to beat the high expectations that oddsmakers had of them (expected win percentage = 64%).

2NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 11-5 | 2019 Projection: 11 Wins
Win 66% of Neutral Field Simulations

Even with the juice, the Patriots are a good betting value. Their 16.6% chance to win the Super Bowl (based on simulations) is #2 in the league. Current Odds are 6/1, 14.3%. The Patriots are averaging 11.1 wins per sim which is essentially the same as their futures line of 11 wins. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the AFC. Their 11-5 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 11.5-4.5.

3LOS ANGELES RAMS 13-3 | 2019 Projection: 10 Wins
Win 63% of Neutral Field Simulations

Even if Todd Gurley is 80% the player he was a year ago, the return of Cooper Kupp keeps the Rams in solid contention. They are a good bet to win the Super Bowl (11.1 percent chance). Current Odds are 12/1, 7.7%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 10.5 games. The Rams are averaging 10.1 wins per sim. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the NFC. With a 13-3 record they managed to beat the high expectations that oddsmakers had of them (expected win percentage = 74%).

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4NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 13-3 | 2019 Projection: 11 Wins
Win 63% of Neutral Field Simulations

Even with the juice, the Saints are a good betting value. Their 13% chance to win the Super Bowl (based on simulations) is #3 in the league. Current Odds are 12/1, 7.7%. The Saints are averaging 10.8 wins per sim which makes them a decent bet to win over 10.5 games. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the NFC. They went 13-3 last season. They were very good against the spread going 10-6 for (+340 profit).

5LOS ANGELES CHARGERS 12-4 | 2019 Projection: 10 Wins
Win 62% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Chargers are behind the Chiefs and Patriots in the AFC projected standings but are stil a leading contender assuming Derwin James is healthy for at least half of the season and into the playoffs. They are a good bet to win the Super Bowl (6.3 percent chance). Current Odds are 18/1, 5.3%. The Chargers are averaging 9.8 wins per sim which makes them a decent bet to win over 9.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the AFC. With a 12-4 record they managed to beat the high expectations that oddsmakers had of them (expected win percentage = 64%).

6INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 10-6 | 2019 Projection: 9 Wins
Win 58% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 3.6% chance is #8 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 12/1, 7.7%. The Colts are averaging 9.2 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 10 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the AFC. Their 10-6 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 8.5-7.5.

7CHICAGO BEARS 12-4 | 2019 Projection: 9 Wins
Win 57% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 3.8% chance is #7 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 12/1, 7.7%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 9 games. The Bears are averaging 8.8 wins per sim. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the NFC. They went 12-4 last season. Their ATS record was the same as their win-loss record and they turned a strong +760 profit.

8PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 9-7 | 2019 Projection: 10 Wins
Win 57% of Neutral Field Simulations

Bet on the Eagles if you think Carson Wentz will return to 2017 form. But the sims still are going to rely heavily on 2018 stats where the Eagles were not nearly as good with Wentz. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 5.6% chance is #6 in the league. Current Odds are 12/1, 7.7%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 10 games. The Eagles are averaging 9.6 wins per sim. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the NFC. They went 9-7 last season. They were not good against the spread going 6-9-1 (-390 loss).

9SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 10-6 | 2019 Projection: 9 Wins
Win 57% of Neutral Field Simulations

They win the Super Bowl in 3.3% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. The Seahawks are averaging 9 wins per sim which makes them a decent bet to win over 8.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the NFC. They went 10-6 last season. They were very good against the spread going 9-5-2 for (+350 profit).

10CLEVELAND BROWNS 7-8 | 2019 Projection: 9 Wins
Win 56% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Browns should meet regular season expectations and make the playoffs. But once the playoffs come around they could struggle. They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 2.9% chance is #10 in the league. Current Odds are 18/1, 5.3%. The Browns are averaging 9.2 wins per sim which is essentially the same as their futures line of 9 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the AFC. They overachieved last season. Their game odds projected to 6.5 wins. Their 7-8-1 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them.

11BALTIMORE RAVENS 10-6 | 2019 Projection: 9 Wins
Win 56% of Neutral Field Simulations

Dominant time of possession and the best secondary will hold teams to under 18 ppg. Losing 35 year olds (Weddle, Suggs) is never going to be that big a loss. If the Ravens average 23 ppg they should be +85 to +90 in differential for the season which translates to a 10+ win team. Their simulation based win percentage (2.3%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. The Ravens are averaging 8.9 wins per sim which makes them a decent bet to win over 8.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the AFC. Their 10-6 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. Their expected win percentage was 58%.

12PITTSBURGH STEELERS 9-6 | 2019 Projection: 9 Wins
Win 54% of Neutral Field Simulations

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 2.2% chance is #12 in the league. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 9 games. The Steelers are averaging 8.8 wins per sim. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the AFC. They were expected to win 60% of their games last season so their 9-6-1 met expectations.

13DALLAS COWBOYS 10-6 | 2019 Projection: 8 Wins
Win 54% of Neutral Field Simulations

They face 3 of the Final 4 teams from last season, two on the road (@NO, @NE, LAR). This makes their schedule mcuh tougher. If all things were equal they would be real contenders, but with this strength of schedule and Zeke Elliott's Holdout, they could be in trouble. They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 2.2% chance is #13 in the league. Current Odds are 18/1, 5.3%. The Cowboys are averaging 8.5 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 9 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the NFC. They went 10-6 last season. They were very good against the spread going 9-6-1 for (+240 profit).

14MINNESOTA VIKINGS 8-7 | 2019 Projection: 8 Wins
Win 53% of Neutral Field Simulations

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1.8% chance is #15 in the league. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. The Vikings are averaging 8.2 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 9 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the NFC. Their 8-7-1 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their expected win percentage was 58%.

15GREEN BAY PACKERS 6-9 | 2019 Projection: 8 Wins
Win 53% of Neutral Field Simulations

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 2% chance is #14 in the league. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. The Packers are averaging 8.4 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 9 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the NFC. Their 6-9-1 record last season was very disappointing. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 9.1-6.9.

16HOUSTON TEXANS 11-5 | 2019 Projection: 8 Wins
Win 52% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 1.1% chance is #16 in the league. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 8.5 games. The Texans are averaging 8.1 wins per sim. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the AFC. Their 11-5 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their expected win percentage was just 60%.

17DETROIT LIONS 6-10 | 2019 Projection: 8 Wins
Win 51% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are a good bet to win the Super Bowl (1 percent chance). Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. The Lions are averaging 7.9 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 6.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the NFC. Their 6-10 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 6.6-9.4.

18ATLANTA FALCONS 7-9 | 2019 Projection: 8 Wins
Win 49% of Neutral Field Simulations

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.6% chance is #18 in the league. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. The Falcons are averaging 7.7 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 8.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the NFC. Their 7-9 record last season was very disappointing. Their expected win percentage was 55%.

19CAROLINA PANTHERS 7-9 | 2019 Projection: 7 Wins
Win 49% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 0.5% chance is #20 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 50/1, 2%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 7.5 games. The Panthers are averaging 7.2 wins per sim. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the NFC. They went 7-9 last season. They also went 7-9 against the spread for a loss (-290 units).

20SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 4-12 | 2019 Projection: 8 Wins
Win 47% of Neutral Field Simulations

Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to help the 49ers improve from 21 point per game to that 24.5 - 25 point range. Their emphasis on defense in the draft helps them improve to over 7 wins per sim, but not enough to win the division. Their 0.6% chance is #19 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 8 games. The 49ers are averaging 7.6 wins per sim. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the NFC. They went 4-12 last season. They were not good against the spread going 5-11 (-710 loss).

21TENNESSEE TITANS 9-7 | 2019 Projection: 7 Wins
Win 47% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 0.4% chance is #21 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 80/1, 1.2%. The Titans are averaging 7.3 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 8 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the AFC. Their 9-7 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 7.5-8.5.

22DENVER BRONCOS 6-10 | 2019 Projection: 7 Wins
Win 47% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 0.2% chance is #23 in the league. Current Odds are 80/1, 1.2%. Both the simulations and oddsmakers have them at 7 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the AFC. They went 6-10 last season. They were not good against the spread going 6-9-1 (-390 loss).

23JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 5-11 | 2019 Projection: 7 Wins
Win 46% of Neutral Field Simulations

Nick Foles improved the Jaguars' projected win total by 1.5 games per simulation which is good enough to get to 7+ winss, but not into contention. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.3% chance is #22 in the league. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. The Jaguars are averaging 7 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 8 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the AFC. They went 5-11 last season. They were not good against the spread going 5-9-2 (-490 loss).

24NEW YORK JETS 4-12 | 2019 Projection: 7 Wins
Win 42% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 0.2% chance is #25 in the league. Current Odds are 60/1, 1.6%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 7.5 games. The Jets are averaging 7.4 wins per sim. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the AFC. They went 4-12 last season. They were not good against the spread going 5-10-1 (-600 loss).

25NEW YORK GIANTS 5-11 | 2019 Projection: 7 Wins
Win 41% of Neutral Field Simulations

They have a soft schedule and despite their low power ranking could have a better than expected season. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.2% chance is #24 in the league. Current Odds are 200/1, 0.5%. The Giants are averaging 6.8 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 6 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the NFC. Oddsmakers expected them to win 6.8 based on their money line game odds. Their 5-11 record last season was very disappointing.

26TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 5-11 | 2019 Projection: 6 Wins
Win 40% of Neutral Field Simulations

While not completely impossible, their chances of winning the Super Bowl is under 0.1 percent. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 6.5 games. The Buccaneers are averaging 6.2 wins per sim. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #15 in the NFC. Their 5-11 record last season was very disappointing. Their expected win percentage was 39%.

27BUFFALO BILLS 6-10 | 2019 Projection: 7 Wins
Win 38% of Neutral Field Simulations

They win the Super Bowl in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 7 games. The Bills are averaging 6.6 wins per sim. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the AFC. They went 6-10 last season. They were not good against the spread going 7-9 (-290 loss).

28WASHINGTON REDSKINS 7-9 | 2019 Projection: 6 Wins
Win 38% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 0.1% chance is #26 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 300/1, 0.3%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 6.5 games. The Redskins are averaging 6.4 wins per sim. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the NFC. Based on last season's game odds they 'should have had' 6.3 wins. Their 7-9 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them.

29CINCINNATI BENGALS 6-10 | 2019 Projection: 6 Wins
Win 38% of Neutral Field Simulations

They do not have any real chance to win the Super Bowl. Current Odds are 200/1, 0.5%. The Bengals are averaging 6.5 wins per sim which makes them a decent bet to win over 6 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the AFC. Oddsmakers expected them to win 6.5 based on their money line game odds. Their 6-10 record last season failed to meet expectations.

30OAKLAND RAIDERS 4-12 | 2019 Projection: 5 Wins
Win 35% of Neutral Field Simulations

They win the Super Bowl in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. The Raiders are averaging 5.1 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 6 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #15 in the AFC. They went 4-12 last season. They were not good against the spread going 6-10 (-500 loss).

31ARIZONA CARDINALS 3-13 | 2019 Projection: 5 Wins
Win 33% of Neutral Field Simulations

With Kyler Murray the team will improve quite a bit and are projected to score at least 1 more TD per game vs last year, but that is not enough to win more than 6 games. They win the Super Bowl in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 200/1, 0.5%. The Cardinals are averaging 5.2 wins per sim which is essentially the same as their futures line of 5 wins. In simulations they finish last in the NFC based on projected wins. Oddsmakers had low expectations for them last season (expected win percentage = 30%) and they failed to live up to even these low expectations going 3-13.

32MIAMI DOLPHINS 7-9 | 2019 Projection: 5 Wins
Win 29% of Neutral Field Simulations

They do not win the Super Bowl in any simulations. Current Odds are 500/1, 0.2%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 5 games. The Dolphins are averaging 4.6 wins per sim. In simulations they finish last in the AFC based on projected wins. Their 7-9 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their expected win percentage was just 37%.