NFL Super Bowl and Conference Futures 2019

The difference at the top of the conference is at 5.7%. The Baltimore Ravens at 31.9% trails the Kansas City Chiefs at 37.6%. The gap seems to be widening. The Ravens chances are down from 34.2 percent. Expect the race for the final playoff spot to be tight. In simulations, the Steelers average the #6 most wins and the Colts average the #7 so the difference (0.25 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be small. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the conference with just 5 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

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AFC FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
Kansas City Chiefs11.989.0%96.1%5/2 (28.6%)37.6%
Baltimore Ravens11.581.4%93.9%4/1 (20%)31.9%
New England Patriots10.970.6%88.0%7/1 (12.5%)13.7%
Tennessee Titans9.148.8%60.6%20/1 (4.8%)4.9%
Buffalo Bills9.527.6%60.1%20/1 (4.8%)4.7%
Pittsburgh Steelers8.714.6%45.0%8/1 (11.1%)2.6%
Indianapolis Colts8.427.4%41.6%20/1 (4.8%)1.5%
Houston Texans7.816.6%28.0%20/1 (4.8%)1.1%
Los Angeles Chargers7.86.7%28.2%20/1 (4.8%)0.8%
Denver Broncos7.53.6%19.5%30/1 (3.2%)0.5%
Cleveland Browns7.13.6%14.8%15/1 (6.2%)0.3%
Jacksonville Jaguars6.67.2%12.6%50/1 (2%)0.2%
New York Jets5.81.7%5.3%40/1 (2.4%)--
Las Vegas Raiders5.60.7%4.0%20/1 (4.8%)--
Cincinnati Bengals5.00.3%1.7%50/1 (2%)--
Miami Dolphins4.20.1%0.6%50/1 (2%)--

There is a 5.7% difference between the 49ers and the Saints. The New Orleans Saints at 30.6% trails the San Francisco 49ers at 36.3%. The gap seems to be lessening. The 49ers chances are down from 44.9 percent. As far as teams fighting for the final playoff spots go, there is a very small difference in projected wins between the teams with the #5 best record and the team with the #7 best record. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the conference with just 5 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

NFC FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
San Francisco 49ers11.473.4%92.9%4/1 (20%)36.3%
New Orleans Saints11.691.6%95.8%5/1 (16.7%)30.6%
Minnesota Vikings9.855.5%70.5%12/1 (7.7%)8.7%
Dallas Cowboys10.062.6%75.9%6/1 (14.3%)8.6%
Los Angeles Rams9.018.1%52.1%12/1 (7.7%)5.0%
Green Bay Packers8.623.7%42.9%10/1 (9.1%)3.4%
Philadelphia Eagles8.730.9%46.6%10/1 (9.1%)2.2%
Chicago Bears8.217.4%34.7%12/1 (7.7%)2.1%
Seattle Seahawks7.76.7%26.3%10/1 (9.1%)1.7%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers7.04.4%15.3%30/1 (3.2%)0.5%
Atlanta Falcons7.03.5%14.2%25/1 (3.8%)0.4%
Arizona Cardinals6.71.8%10.3%40/1 (2.4%)0.3%
Detroit Lions6.23.4%8.3%40/1 (2.4%)0.2%
Washington Redskins5.52.4%4.5%100/1 (1%)--
New York Giants6.14.1%7.6%40/1 (2.4%)--
Carolina Panthers5.10.5%2.0%50/1 (2%)--

Below are the latest NFL Futures for winning the Super Bowl. At #2, the 49ers have a 19.6 percent chance of winning the championship, which is 2.5 percentage points behind the Chiefs. The separation between the team with the #5 highest chances vs the #7 highest is 3.1 percentage points.

SUPERBOWL CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
Kansas City Chiefs5/116.7%22.1%--
San Francisco 49ers8/111.1%19.6%--
Baltimore Ravens8/111.1%18.6%--
New Orleans Saints10/19.1%15.3%--
New England Patriots14/16.7%6.3%--
Minnesota Vikings25/13.8%3.4%--
Dallas Cowboys12/17.7%3.2%--
Los Angeles Rams25/13.8%1.9%--
Tennessee Titans40/12.4%1.9%--
Buffalo Bills40/12.4%1.8%--
Green Bay Packers20/14.8%1.1%--
Pittsburgh Steelers16/15.9%1.0%--