NFL Super Bowl and Conference Futures 2019

The difference at the top of the conference is at 3.3%. The Kansas City Chiefs at 26.1% trails the New England Patriots at 29.4%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Chiefs chances are down from 31 percent. Expect the playoff race to be tight. In simulations, the Browns average the #5 most wins and the Colts average the #7 most so the difference (0.89 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be small. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the conference with just 6 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

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AFC FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
New England Patriots11.379.0%90.2%3/1 (25%)29.4%
Kansas City Chiefs11.056.6%84.0%3/1 (25%)26.1%
Los Angeles Chargers10.237.8%71.7%8/1 (11.1%)14.0%
Baltimore Ravens9.328.8%50.3%20/1 (4.8%)8.2%
Cleveland Browns9.639.1%59.1%7/1 (12.5%)7.6%
Pittsburgh Steelers9.129.9%49.0%15/1 (6.2%)5.3%
Indianapolis Colts8.743.3%50.1%8/1 (11.1%)3.7%
New York Jets8.819.9%42.0%30/1 (3.2%)1.8%
Houston Texans7.721.1%27.2%12/1 (7.7%)1.4%
Tennessee Titans7.624.1%29.6%40/1 (2.4%)1.3%
Denver Broncos7.85.4%21.7%40/1 (2.4%)0.9%
Jacksonville Jaguars6.711.5%14.8%20/1 (4.8%)0.2%
Cincinnati Bengals6.22.3%5.5%50/1 (2%)0.1%
Buffalo Bills5.50.8%2.5%50/1 (2%)--
Oakland Raiders5.00.3%1.5%30/1 (3.2%)--
Miami Dolphins4.70.3%0.8%50/1 (2%)--

There is a large 7.5% difference between the Saints and the Rams. The Los Angeles Rams at 27.6% trails the New Orleans Saints at 35%. The gap seems to be widening. The Rams chances are down from 32.9 percent. The playoff race should be a tight one with only 0.67 wins separate the 3 teams projected for the #5, #6 and #7 best conference record. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the conference with just 5 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

NFC FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
New Orleans Saints11.589.2%95.0%4/1 (20%)35.0%
Los Angeles Rams10.767.5%87.0%4/1 (20%)27.6%
Seattle Seahawks9.224.3%58.3%12/1 (7.7%)8.8%
Philadelphia Eagles8.744.8%54.6%10/1 (9.1%)7.5%
Chicago Bears8.836.4%52.7%8/1 (11.1%)7.0%
Minnesota Vikings8.024.6%36.3%10/1 (9.1%)2.9%
Dallas Cowboys8.228.0%39.6%10/1 (9.1%)2.7%
Green Bay Packers8.023.2%35.9%7/1 (12.5%)1.8%
Detroit Lions7.615.8%27.4%40/1 (2.4%)1.8%
San Francisco 49ers7.88.0%29.8%15/1 (6.2%)1.6%
Atlanta Falcons7.34.9%19.5%15/1 (6.2%)1.0%
New York Giants7.416.9%25.2%40/1 (2.4%)1.0%
Carolina Panthers6.72.9%12.4%25/1 (3.8%)0.6%
Washington Redskins6.510.3%15.0%50/1 (2%)0.3%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6.52.9%10.8%40/1 (2.4%)0.3%
Arizona Cardinals4.00.1%0.6%50/1 (2%)--

There may be 12 playoff teams but there are only 11 true championship contenders (at least a 2% chance). At the top, the Saints have a 2 percentage point lead over the Patriots. The separation between the team with the #9 highest chances vs the #11 highest is 0.8 percentage points.

SUPERBOWL CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
New Orleans Saints8/111.1%18.9%--
New England Patriots6/114.3%17.3%--
Kansas City Chiefs6/114.3%15.7%--
Los Angeles Rams8/111.1%13.6%--
Los Angeles Chargers16/15.9%7.2%--
Baltimore Ravens40/12.4%3.8%--
Seattle Seahawks25/13.8%3.7%--
Cleveland Browns14/16.7%3.5%--
Philadelphia Eagles20/14.8%3.1%--
Chicago Bears16/15.9%3.1%--
Pittsburgh Steelers30/13.2%2.3%--
Indianapolis Colts16/15.9%1.6%--