NFL Super Bowl and Conference Futures 2020

There is a virtual tie at the top of the conference. The Baltimore Ravens lead with a 35.2 percent chance of winning the AFC and the Kansas City Chiefs are at 34.8%. The gap seems to be widening. The Chiefs chances are down from 37.6 percent. Expect the race for the final playoff spot to be tight. In simulations, the Steelers average the #6 most wins and the Colts average the #7 so the difference (0.44 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be small. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the conference with just 5 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

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AFC FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
Baltimore Ravens11.985.1%96.0%4/1 (20%)35.2%
Kansas City Chiefs11.989.2%96.4%5/2 (28.6%)34.8%
New England Patriots10.971.0%88.7%7/1 (12.5%)14.2%
Tennessee Titans9.252.0%62.9%20/1 (4.8%)5.0%
Buffalo Bills9.527.4%61.1%20/1 (4.8%)4.4%
Pittsburgh Steelers8.612.0%44.5%8/1 (11.1%)2.3%
Indianapolis Colts8.224.9%38.0%20/1 (4.8%)1.4%
Houston Texans7.818.4%29.8%20/1 (4.8%)1.0%
Los Angeles Chargers7.86.2%27.4%20/1 (4.8%)0.7%
Denver Broncos7.63.9%21.2%30/1 (3.2%)0.5%
Cleveland Browns7.02.6%13.8%15/1 (6.2%)0.3%
Jacksonville Jaguars6.04.7%8.3%50/1 (2%)--
Las Vegas Raiders5.80.7%4.6%20/1 (4.8%)--
New York Jets5.81.4%5.3%40/1 (2.4%)--
Cincinnati Bengals4.90.2%1.5%50/1 (2%)--
Miami Dolphins4.30.1%0.6%50/1 (2%)--

There is a large 8.3% difference between the 49ers and the Saints. The San Francisco 49ers lead with a 38.2 percent chance of winning the NFC and the New Orleans Saints are at 29.9%. The gap seems to be lessening. The 49ers chances are down from 44.9 percent. Expect the playoff race to be tight. In simulations, the Rams average the #5 most wins and the Bears average the #7 most so the difference (0.63 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be small. This is a top heavy conference with just 5 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

NFC FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
San Francisco 49ers11.575.0%93.8%4/1 (20%)38.2%
New Orleans Saints11.691.1%95.5%5/1 (16.7%)29.9%
Dallas Cowboys10.063.3%76.7%6/1 (14.3%)8.7%
Minnesota Vikings9.652.7%67.2%12/1 (7.7%)7.9%
Los Angeles Rams8.916.7%50.0%12/1 (7.7%)5.1%
Green Bay Packers8.525.0%43.0%10/1 (9.1%)2.9%
Chicago Bears8.219.1%35.8%12/1 (7.7%)2.4%
Philadelphia Eagles8.630.5%46.7%10/1 (9.1%)2.2%
Seattle Seahawks7.86.9%28.3%10/1 (9.1%)1.5%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers7.04.6%15.6%30/1 (3.2%)0.4%
Atlanta Falcons6.93.2%13.3%25/1 (3.8%)0.3%
Arizona Cardinals6.61.4%9.3%40/1 (2.4%)0.2%
New York Giants6.13.8%7.5%40/1 (2.4%)0.1%
Detroit Lions6.13.3%7.6%40/1 (2.4%)--
Carolina Panthers5.91.1%5.2%50/1 (2%)--
Washington Redskins5.52.4%4.5%100/1 (1%)--

Getting into the playoffs will be the peak of the season for 5 teams. There are only 7 winning it all in at least two percent of simulations. At #2, the Chiefs have a 20.1 percent chance of winning the championship, which is 1.3 percentage points behind the Ravens. The separation between the team with the #5 highest chances vs the #7 highest is 3.4 percentage points.

SUPERBOWL CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
Baltimore Ravens8/111.1%21.4%--
Kansas City Chiefs5/116.7%20.1%--
San Francisco 49ers8/111.1%20.0%--
New Orleans Saints10/19.1%15.0%--
New England Patriots14/16.7%6.5%--
Dallas Cowboys12/17.7%3.3%--
Minnesota Vikings25/13.8%3.2%--
Los Angeles Rams25/13.8%1.9%--
Tennessee Titans40/12.4%1.8%--
Buffalo Bills40/12.4%1.7%--
Green Bay Packers20/14.8%1.0%--