NFL Super Bowl and Conference Futures: 49ers Chances are Rising

There is a huge 31.7% difference between the Patriots and the Chiefs. The New England Patriots lead with a 49.6 percent chance of winning the AFC and the Kansas City Chiefs are at 17.9%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Chiefs chances are down from 27.5 percent. As far as teams fighting for the final playoff spots go, there is a small difference in projected wins between the teams with the #5 best record and the team with the #7 best record. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the conference with just 4 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

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AFC FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
New England Patriots13.398.0%99.0%4/5 (55.6%)49.6%
Kansas City Chiefs10.482.8%89.1%4/1 (20%)17.9%
Baltimore Ravens11.188.0%94.0%4/1 (20%)17.9%
Houston Texans9.956.3%82.6%12/1 (7.7%)6.3%
Indianapolis Colts9.136.7%51.7%20/1 (4.8%)2.4%
Buffalo Bills9.92.0%71.3%30/1 (3.2%)2.1%
Pittsburgh Steelers8.410.4%43.3%50/1 (2%)1.5%
Los Angeles Chargers7.710.5%17.2%40/1 (2.4%)1.3%
Jacksonville Jaguars7.63.8%16.0%150/1 (0.7%)0.4%
Oakland Raiders7.96.5%21.6%40/1 (2.4%)0.4%
Cleveland Browns6.61.6%6.4%100/1 (1%)0.2%
Tennessee Titans6.83.1%5.8%150/1 (0.7%)0.1%
Denver Broncos5.60.1%0.7%500/1 (0.2%)--
New York Jets3.40.0%0.0%5000/1--
Cincinnati Bengals3.00.0%0.0%25000/1--
Miami Dolphins2.90.0%0.0%25000/1--

The difference at the top of the conference is small at 2%. The San Francisco 49ers at 34.6% trails the New Orleans Saints at 36.6%. The difference between these teams is widening as the 49ers chances are down from 37.1 percent. There is a 0.67 difference in projected win total between the #6 best record and the #7 best record in the conference. This is a pretty significant difference even if it does not seem to be at first glance. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the conference, there are 7 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).

NFC FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
New Orleans Saints13.096.6%99.0%7/4 (36.4%)36.6%
San Francisco 49ers13.083.3%99.0%5/2 (28.6%)34.6%
Green Bay Packers10.864.2%78.9%7/1 (12.5%)5.8%
Los Angeles Rams9.74.3%49.4%15/1 (6.2%)5.0%
Seattle Seahawks10.312.5%63.2%12/1 (7.7%)4.9%
Minnesota Vikings9.931.3%61.6%12/1 (7.7%)4.6%
Dallas Cowboys9.253.0%59.2%10/1 (9.1%)4.3%
Philadelphia Eagles9.346.9%53.2%12/1 (7.7%)2.7%
Carolina Panthers9.03.4%22.0%30/1 (3.2%)1.0%
Detroit Lions7.33.7%8.7%250/1 (0.4%)0.4%
Chicago Bears7.00.8%4.1%100/1 (1%)0.2%
Arizona Cardinals5.60.0%0.3%1000/1 (0.1%)--
Tampa Bay Buccaneers5.40.0%0.1%1000/1 (0.1%)--
New York Giants5.00.1%0.1%1000/1 (0.1%)--
Atlanta Falcons3.50.0%0.0%5000/1--
Washington Redskins3.50.0%0.0%25000/1--

There may be 12 playoff teams but there are only 7 true championship contenders (at least a 2% chance). At the top, the Patriots have a 8.7 percentage point lead over the Saints. At the bottom of the contenders list, 5.7 percentage points separate the Ravens from the Rams.

SUPERBOWL CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
New England Patriots12/529.4%28.3%DOWN
New Orleans Saints4/120.0%19.5%--
San Francisco 49ers7/112.5%18.8%--
Kansas City Chiefs8/111.1%8.9%DOWN
Baltimore Ravens8/111.1%7.9%UP
Houston Texans25/13.8%2.3%DOWN
Los Angeles Rams30/13.2%2.3%DOWN
Minnesota Vikings25/13.8%2.0%DOWN
Seattle Seahawks25/13.8%2.0%DOWN
Green Bay Packers14/16.7%1.9%DOWN
Dallas Cowboys20/14.8%1.7%DOWN