NFL Super Bowl and Conference Futures: 49ers In Top 5

There is a huge 21% difference between the Ravens and the Patriots. The Baltimore Ravens lead with a 46.7 percent chance of winning the AFC and the New England Patriots are at 25.7%. The gap seems to be widening. The Patriots chances are down from 44.3 percent. Expect the race for the final playoff spot to be tight. In simulations, the Titans average the #6 most wins and the Steelers average the #7 so the difference (0.12 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be very small. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the conference with just 5 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

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Baltimore Ravens13.5100.0%100.0%2/3 (60%)46.7%
New England Patriots12.9100.0%100.0%7/2 (22.2%)25.7%
Kansas City Chiefs11.7100.0%100.0%7/2 (22.2%)17.4%
Houston Texans10.4100.0%100.0%15/1 (6.2%)4.2%
Buffalo Bills10.60.0%100.0%20/1 (4.8%)4.2%
Tennessee Titans8.60.0%67.1%50/1 (2%)1.5%
Pittsburgh Steelers8.50.0%28.2%150/1 (0.7%)0.3%
Oakland Raiders7.40.0%4.7%500/1 (0.2%)--
Indianapolis Colts7.60.0%0.0%----
Cleveland Browns6.60.0%0.0%----
Denver Broncos6.60.0%0.0%----
New York Jets6.40.0%0.0%----
Jacksonville Jaguars5.40.0%0.0%----
Los Angeles Chargers5.30.0%0.0%----
Miami Dolphins4.10.0%0.0%----
Cincinnati Bengals1.40.0%0.0%----

There is a small 1.1% difference between conference leaders. The New Orleans Saints lead with a 33.8 percent chance of winning the NFC and the San Francisco 49ers are at 32.7%. The gap seems to be widening. The 49ers chances are down from 35.2 percent. There is a 0.87 difference in projected win total between the #6 best record and the #7 best record in the conference. This is a pretty significant difference even if it does not seem to be at first glance. This is a top heavy conference with just 5 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

New Orleans Saints12.8100.0%100.0%5/2 (28.6%)33.8%
San Francisco 49ers12.658.3%100.0%9/5 (35.7%)32.7%
Green Bay Packers12.7100.0%100.0%4/1 (20%)13.6%
Minnesota Vikings10.60.0%100.0%9/1 (10%)8.1%
Seattle Seahawks11.441.7%100.0%6/1 (14.3%)7.0%
Philadelphia Eagles8.674.3%74.3%15/1 (6.2%)3.8%
Dallas Cowboys7.825.7%25.7%25/1 (3.8%)1.1%
Los Angeles Rams8.70.0%0.0%----
Tampa Bay Buccaneers7.50.0%0.0%----
Chicago Bears7.40.0%0.0%----
Atlanta Falcons6.50.0%0.0%----
Arizona Cardinals5.30.0%0.0%----
Carolina Panthers5.20.0%0.0%----
New York Giants4.40.0%0.0%----
Detroit Lions3.30.0%0.0%----
Washington Redskins3.20.0%0.0%----

There may be 12 playoff teams but there are only 8 true championship contenders (at least a 2% chance). At the top, the Ravens have a significant 13.6 percentage point lead over the Saints. The separation between the team with the #6 highest chances vs the #8 highest is 2.6 percentage points.

Baltimore Ravens9/430.8%29.0%--
New Orleans Saints6/114.3%15.4%DOWN
San Francisco 49ers4/120.0%15.2%--
New England Patriots8/111.1%13.7%DOWN
Kansas City Chiefs8/111.1%10.4%UP
Green Bay Packers10/19.1%4.9%UP
Minnesota Vikings20/14.8%3.5%DOWN
Seattle Seahawks14/16.7%2.3%DOWN
Buffalo Bills40/12.4%1.8%--
Houston Texans30/13.2%1.6%UP