NFL Super Bowl and Conference Futures: Chiefs and Patriots in Virtual Tie

There is a small 2.3% difference between the Patriots and the Chiefs. The Kansas City Chiefs at 26% trails the New England Patriots at 28.3%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Chiefs chances are down from 31 percent. As far as teams fighting for the final playoff spots go, there is a small difference in projected wins between the teams with the #6 best record and the team with the #7 best record. There are 7 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the conference.

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New England Patriots10.677.4%89.3%3/1 (25%)28.3%
Kansas City Chiefs10.258.1%80.1%3/1 (25%)26.0%
Los Angeles Chargers8.834.4%67.9%8/1 (11.1%)11.4%
Baltimore Ravens9.129.9%49.6%20/1 (4.8%)9.4%
Cleveland Browns9.643.7%61.1%7/1 (12.5%)8.0%
Indianapolis Colts8.542.0%52.4%8/1 (11.1%)5.0%
Pittsburgh Steelers8.223.5%41.0%15/1 (6.2%)4.3%
New York Jets8.321.1%43.4%30/1 (3.2%)2.3%
Houston Texans8.124.8%33.1%12/1 (7.7%)2.3%
Tennessee Titans6.423.7%31.7%40/1 (2.4%)1.3%
Denver Broncos7.76.9%22.0%40/1 (2.4%)1.2%
Jacksonville Jaguars6.49.4%14.6%20/1 (4.8%)0.2%
Cincinnati Bengals5.83.0%6.9%50/1 (2%)0.1%
Buffalo Bills5.61.2%3.2%50/1 (2%)--
Oakland Raiders5.10.6%2.8%30/1 (3.2%)--
Miami Dolphins4.40.3%1.1%60/1 (1.6%)--

There is a small 1.7% difference between conference leaders. The New Orleans Saints lead with a 25 percent chance of winning the NFC and the Los Angeles Rams are at 23.3%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Rams chances are down from 32.9 percent. Expect the playoff race to be tight. In simulations, the Bears average the #5 most wins and the Vikings average the #7 most so the difference (0.92 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be small. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the conference, there are 7 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).

New Orleans Saints9.681.7%89.3%4/1 (20%)25.0%
Los Angeles Rams9.259.1%82.1%4/1 (20%)23.3%
Philadelphia Eagles8.945.4%56.1%10/1 (9.1%)10.8%
Seattle Seahawks9.327.6%60.0%12/1 (7.7%)10.4%
Chicago Bears8.936.2%52.3%7/1 (12.5%)10.0%
Dallas Cowboys8.126.1%37.3%12/1 (7.7%)4.4%
Minnesota Vikings8.023.8%35.3%10/1 (9.1%)4.3%
Green Bay Packers8.123.8%36.6%7/1 (12.5%)2.6%
Detroit Lions7.716.2%28.2%40/1 (2.4%)2.3%
San Francisco 49ers7.613.1%34.7%15/1 (6.2%)2.0%
Atlanta Falcons7.69.4%23.9%15/1 (6.2%)1.9%
Carolina Panthers6.78.1%18.7%25/1 (3.8%)1.1%
New York Giants6.714.5%21.9%40/1 (2.4%)1.0%
Washington Redskins6.014.0%20.4%50/1 (2%)0.7%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers3.90.9%2.6%40/1 (2.4%)0.1%
Arizona Cardinals4.10.2%0.7%50/1 (2%)--

Using a level of having at least a two percent chance, there are 12 'contending' teams. This is the number you would expect in a typical season. At #2, the Patriots have a 16 percent chance of winning the championship, which is 0 percentage points behind the Chiefs. The separation between the team with the #10 highest chances vs the #12 highest is 2.1 percentage points.

Kansas City Chiefs6/114.3%16.2%--
New England Patriots6/114.3%16.0%--
New Orleans Saints8/111.1%12.9%--
Los Angeles Rams8/111.1%11.9%--
Los Angeles Chargers16/15.9%6.2%--
Baltimore Ravens40/12.4%5.0%--
Seattle Seahawks25/13.8%5.0%--
Philadelphia Eagles20/14.8%4.6%--
Chicago Bears14/16.7%4.3%--
Cleveland Browns14/16.7%4.1%--
Indianapolis Colts16/15.9%2.4%--
Pittsburgh Steelers30/13.2%2.0%--
Dallas Cowboys25/13.8%1.5%--
Minnesota Vikings20/14.8%1.5%--