NFL Super Bowl and Conference Futures: Chiefs Are a Strong #3

The relative difference at the top of the conference is at 26%. The Kansas City Chiefs at 30% trails the New England Patriots at 37.8%. The gap seems to be widening. The Chiefs chances are down from 31.7 percent. Expect the race for the final playoff spot to be tight. In simulations, the Bengals average the #6 most wins and the Titans average the #7 so the difference (0.35 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be small. This is a top heavy conference with just 5 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

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New England Patriots12.498.0%99.0%5/2 (28.6%)37.8%
Kansas City Chiefs13.184.7%99.0%7/4 (36.4%)30.0%
Los Angeles Chargers11.215.3%95.4%6/1 (14.3%)12.3%
Pittsburgh Steelers9.672.8%83.9%7/2 (22.2%)8.2%
Houston Texans10.065.2%81.7%11/1 (8.3%)5.6%
Cincinnati Bengals8.621.2%41.1%25/1 (3.8%)2.4%
Tennessee Titans8.324.1%31.8%25/1 (3.8%)1.4%
Baltimore Ravens8.06.0%21.7%45/1 (2.2%)1.2%
Indianapolis Colts7.58.0%13.9%45/1 (2.2%)0.6%
Jacksonville Jaguars6.72.7%7.2%45/1 (2.2%)0.2%
Miami Dolphins8.00.3%16.3%90/1 (1.1%)0.2%
New York Jets5.80.1%0.7%900/1 (0.1%)--
Denver Broncos6.50.1%2.1%1000/1 (0.1%)--
Cleveland Browns4.80.1%0.4%4000/1--
Buffalo Bills4.00.1%0.1%4000/1--
Oakland Raiders2.70.1%0.1%4000/1--

There is a small 13% relative difference between conference leaders. The New Orleans Saints at 31.1% trails the Los Angeles Rams at 35.2%. The gap seems to be lessening. The Rams chances are down from 42.9 percent. The playoff race should be a tight one with only 0.6 wins separate the 3 teams projected for the #5, #6 and #7 best conference record. This is a top heavy conference with just 5 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

Los Angeles Rams12.898.0%99.0%5/4 (44.4%)35.2%
New Orleans Saints12.184.4%99.0%7/4 (36.4%)31.1%
Carolina Panthers9.814.1%68.0%12/1 (7.7%)7.4%
Chicago Bears9.554.2%68.6%20/1 (4.8%)6.5%
Seattle Seahawks8.80.9%45.1%100/1 (1%)4.5%
Minnesota Vikings8.330.4%45.4%8/1 (11.1%)4.0%
Philadelphia Eagles8.232.0%36.3%10/1 (9.1%)3.9%
Washington Redskins9.060.0%65.7%40/1 (2.4%)3.3%
Atlanta Falcons8.21.2%28.1%40/1 (2.4%)2.0%
Green Bay Packers7.310.5%20.2%20/1 (4.8%)1.1%
Dallas Cowboys7.17.9%11.1%100/1 (1%)0.8%
Detroit Lions6.95.0%6.9%250/1 (0.4%)0.3%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6.40.2%3.4%250/1 (0.4%)0.1%
New York Giants3.60.1%0.1%1000/1 (0.1%)--
San Francisco 49ers4.60.1%0.1%5000/1--
Arizona Cardinals4.40.1%0.1%5000/1--

There may be 12 playoff teams but there are only 9 true championship contenders (at least a 2% chance). At the top, the Patriots have a 6 percentage point lead over the Rams. The separation between the team with the #7 highest chances vs the #9 highest is 0.7 percentage points.

New England Patriots6/114.3%23%.0--
Los Angeles Rams5/228.6%17.1%DOWN
Kansas City Chiefs9/218.2%16.8%--
New Orleans Saints7/222.2%15.4%UP
Los Angeles Chargers14/16.7%5.9%UP
Pittsburgh Steelers8/111.1%4%.0UP
Carolina Panthers25/13.8%3.1%UP
Chicago Bears40/12.4%2.5%DOWN
Houston Texans25/13.8%2.4%UP
Seattle Seahawks200/10.5%1.9%DOWN
Minnesota Vikings16/15.9%1.6%DOWN
Philadelphia Eagles20/14.8%1.5%DOWN
Washington Redskins80/11.2%1.2%DOWN
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