NFL Super Bowl and Conference Futures: Ravens In Top 5

The difference at the top of the conference is very large at 28.2%. The Baltimore Ravens at 21.3% trails the New England Patriots at 49.5%. The gap seems to be lessening. The Patriots chances are down from 55.9 percent. As far as teams fighting for the final playoff spots go, there is a small difference in projected wins between the teams with the #5 best record and the team with the #7 best record. This is a very top heavy conference with just 4 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

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AFC FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
New England Patriots13.397.9%99.0%4/5 (55.6%)49.5%
Baltimore Ravens11.390.8%95.6%4/1 (20%)21.3%
Kansas City Chiefs10.381.3%87.6%4/1 (20%)15.8%
Houston Texans9.854.9%80.9%12/1 (7.7%)6.2%
Indianapolis Colts9.137.3%51.8%20/1 (4.8%)2.1%
Buffalo Bills9.92.1%70.7%30/1 (3.2%)1.9%
Pittsburgh Steelers8.38.1%41.0%50/1 (2%)1.2%
Oakland Raiders8.513.4%35.3%40/1 (2.4%)0.6%
Los Angeles Chargers7.15.2%7.4%40/1 (2.4%)0.6%
Jacksonville Jaguars7.74.3%16.7%150/1 (0.7%)0.4%
Cleveland Browns6.61.1%5.7%100/1 (1%)0.2%
Tennessee Titans6.93.5%6.6%150/1 (0.7%)0.2%
Denver Broncos5.60.1%0.7%500/1 (0.2%)--
New York Jets3.30.0%0.0%5000/1--
Cincinnati Bengals3.00.0%0.0%25000/1--
Miami Dolphins2.90.0%0.0%25000/1--

There is a small 2.5% difference between the Saints and the 49ers. The San Francisco 49ers at 34.2% trails the New Orleans Saints at 36.7%. The difference between these teams is widening as the 49ers chances are down from 37.1 percent. The playoff race should be a tight one with only 0.72 wins separate the 3 teams projected for the #5, #6 and #7 best conference record. There are 7 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the conference.

NFC FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
New Orleans Saints12.996.5%99.0%7/4 (36.4%)36.7%
San Francisco 49ers12.982.1%99.0%5/2 (28.6%)34.2%
Los Angeles Rams9.74.4%49.1%15/1 (6.2%)5.4%
Green Bay Packers10.763.6%78.3%7/1 (12.5%)5.4%
Minnesota Vikings9.931.9%62.6%12/1 (7.7%)5.1%
Seattle Seahawks10.313.5%63.4%12/1 (7.7%)5.0%
Dallas Cowboys9.252.3%58.4%10/1 (9.1%)4.3%
Philadelphia Eagles9.347.6%53.6%12/1 (7.7%)2.4%
Carolina Panthers9.03.5%22.2%30/1 (3.2%)1.1%
Detroit Lions7.33.7%8.8%250/1 (0.4%)0.4%
Chicago Bears7.00.8%4.1%100/1 (1%)0.1%
New York Giants5.00.1%0.1%1000/1 (0.1%)--
Tampa Bay Buccaneers5.40.0%0.1%1000/1 (0.1%)--
Arizona Cardinals5.60.0%0.3%1000/1 (0.1%)--
Atlanta Falcons3.50.0%0.0%5000/1--
Washington Redskins3.50.0%0.0%25000/1--

There may be 12 playoff teams but there are only 8 true championship contenders (at least a 2% chance). At the top, the Patriots have a 9.6 percentage point lead over the Saints. Teams are bunched together at the bottom of the contenders list with just 0.2 percentage points separating the #6 ranked team from the #8 ranked team.

SUPERBOWL CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
New England Patriots12/529.4%28.5%DOWN
New Orleans Saints4/120.0%18.9%--
San Francisco 49ers7/112.5%17.7%--
Baltimore Ravens8/111.1%10.7%UP
Kansas City Chiefs8/111.1%7.9%DOWN
Los Angeles Rams30/13.2%2.5%DOWN
Minnesota Vikings25/13.8%2.3%DOWN
Houston Texans25/13.8%2.2%DOWN
Seattle Seahawks25/13.8%2.0%DOWN
Green Bay Packers14/16.7%1.9%DOWN
Dallas Cowboys20/14.8%1.8%--