NFL Super Bowl and Conference Futures: Seahawks In Top 10

The relative difference at the top of the conference is small at 22%. The Kansas City Chiefs at 30.4% trails the New England Patriots at 37.1%. The gap seems to be lessening. The Patriots chances are down from 40.4 percent. Expect the race for the final playoff spot to be tight. In simulations, the Bengals average the #6 most wins and the Titans average the #7 so the difference (0.33 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be small. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the conference with just 5 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

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New England Patriots12.498.0%99.0%5/2 (28.6%)37.1%
Kansas City Chiefs13.185.1%99.0%7/4 (36.4%)30.4%
Los Angeles Chargers11.214.9%95.3%6/1 (14.3%)11.9%
Pittsburgh Steelers10.182.4%91.9%7/2 (22.2%)9.9%
Houston Texans10.065.4%81.5%11/1 (8.3%)5.2%
Cincinnati Bengals8.614.0%38.2%25/1 (3.8%)2.1%
Tennessee Titans8.324.0%30.9%25/1 (3.8%)1.3%
Baltimore Ravens8.03.6%20.6%45/1 (2.2%)1.2%
Indianapolis Colts7.47.7%12.8%45/1 (2.2%)0.5%
Jacksonville Jaguars6.72.9%7.1%45/1 (2.2%)0.2%
Miami Dolphins8.00.4%14.8%90/1 (1.1%)0.1%
New York Jets5.90.1%0.7%900/1 (0.1%)--
Denver Broncos6.50.1%1.9%1000/1 (0.1%)--
Cleveland Browns4.80.1%0.4%4000/1--
Buffalo Bills3.90.1%0.1%4000/1--
Oakland Raiders2.60.1%0.1%4000/1--

There is a small 11% relative difference between the Rams and the Saints. The New Orleans Saints at 31.8% trails the Los Angeles Rams at 35.4%. The difference between these teams seems to be shrinking. The Rams chances are down from 42.9 percent. The playoff race should be a tight one with only 0.73 wins separate the 3 teams projected for the #5, #6 and #7 best conference record. This is a top heavy conference with just 5 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

Los Angeles Rams12.898.0%99.0%5/4 (44.4%)35.4%
New Orleans Saints12.292.0%99.0%7/4 (36.4%)31.8%
Chicago Bears9.654.2%70.8%20/1 (4.8%)7.2%
Seattle Seahawks8.81.0%49.0%100/1 (1%)5.0%
Carolina Panthers9.16.6%48.5%12/1 (7.7%)4.8%
Philadelphia Eagles8.233.1%38.3%10/1 (9.1%)4.0%
Minnesota Vikings8.329.8%47.6%8/1 (11.1%)3.8%
Washington Redskins9.059.5%66.5%40/1 (2.4%)3.3%
Atlanta Falcons8.31.2%32.3%40/1 (2.4%)2.4%
Green Bay Packers7.310.3%21.5%20/1 (4.8%)1.2%
Dallas Cowboys7.17.3%10.9%100/1 (1%)0.6%
Detroit Lions7.05.7%8.6%250/1 (0.4%)0.3%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6.40.2%3.9%250/1 (0.4%)0.1%
San Francisco 49ers4.60.1%0.1%5000/1--
New York Giants3.60.1%0.1%1000/1 (0.1%)--
Arizona Cardinals4.30.1%0.1%5000/1--

All playoff teams may think they have a shot at winning the championship, but only 8 really do with at least a two percent chance. At #2, the Rams have a 17 percent chance of winning the championship, which is 5 percentage points behind the Patriots. The separation between the team with the #6 highest chances vs the #8 highest is 2.7 percentage points.

New England Patriots6/114.3%22.3%--
Los Angeles Rams5/228.6%17.4%DOWN
Kansas City Chiefs9/218.2%17.3%--
New Orleans Saints7/222.2%15.6%UP
Los Angeles Chargers14/16.7%5.9%UP
Pittsburgh Steelers8/111.1%4.9%UP
Chicago Bears40/12.4%2.8%DOWN
Houston Texans25/13.8%2.2%--
Seattle Seahawks200/10.5%1.9%DOWN
Carolina Panthers25/13.8%1.9%DOWN
Philadelphia Eagles20/14.8%1.6%DOWN
Minnesota Vikings16/15.9%1.4%DOWN
Washington Redskins80/11.2%1%.0DOWN
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