NFL Super Bowl and Conference Futures: Steelers Chances are Falling

The relative difference at the top of the conference is small at 12%. The Kansas City Chiefs at 31.7% trails the New England Patriots at 35.5%. The gap seems to be widening. The Chiefs chances are down from 36.4 percent. Expect the playoff race to be tight. In simulations, the Steelers average the #5 most wins and the Broncos average the #7 most so the difference (0.83 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be small. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the conference with just 6 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

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AFC FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
New England Patriots12.0100.0%100.0%9/4 (30.8%)35.5%
Kansas City Chiefs12.787.2%100.0%2/1 (33.3%)31.7%
Los Angeles Chargers11.212.8%98.6%4/1 (20%)11.9%
Houston Texans11.392.8%97.7%6/1 (14.3%)7.7%
Pittsburgh Steelers9.362.5%82.9%5/1 (16.7%)6.0%
Baltimore Ravens9.437.1%69.3%18/1 (5.3%)5.8%
Denver Broncos8.50.0%15.5%45/1 (2.2%)0.5%
Tennessee Titans8.33.0%12.3%90/1 (1.1%)0.4%
Indianapolis Colts8.24.2%15.1%90/1 (1.1%)0.4%
Miami Dolphins7.70.0%7.5%200/1 (0.5%)--
Cleveland Browns5.90.0%0.4%800/1 (0.1%)--
Cincinnati Bengals6.40.3%0.6%800/1 (0.1%)--
Jacksonville Jaguars5.70.0%0.1%900/1 (0.1%)--
Buffalo Bills5.50.0%0.0%4000/1--
New York Jets4.50.0%0.0%----
Oakland Raiders3.00.0%0.0%----

There is a small 17% relative difference between the Saints and the Rams. The New Orleans Saints lead with a 41.5 percent chance of winning the NFC and the Los Angeles Rams are at 35.5%. The gap seems to be lessening. The Saints chances are down from 45.8 percent. Expect the race for the final playoff spot to be tight. In simulations, the Vikings average the #6 most wins and the Eagles average the #7 so the difference (0.4 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be small. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the conference with just 5 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

NFC FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
New Orleans Saints12.999.9%100.0%5/4 (44.4%)41.5%
Los Angeles Rams14.0100.0%100.0%1/1 (50%)35.5%
Seattle Seahawks9.50.0%90.2%20/1 (4.8%)7.0%
Chicago Bears9.876.7%92.8%10/1 (9.1%)5.4%
Dallas Cowboys9.372.9%84.3%15/1 (6.2%)5.0%
Minnesota Vikings8.123.2%63.2%20/1 (4.8%)3.3%
Philadelphia Eagles7.717.1%24.5%30/1 (3.2%)1.4%
Carolina Panthers7.60.1%14.2%100/1 (1%)0.4%
Washington Redskins7.610.0%25.6%500/1 (0.2%)0.3%
Green Bay Packers6.10.2%2.8%100/1 (1%)0.1%
Atlanta Falcons6.10.0%1.0%500/1 (0.2%)--
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6.10.0%1.0%500/1 (0.2%)--
Detroit Lions6.10.0%0.3%500/1 (0.2%)--
New York Giants5.80.0%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--
Arizona Cardinals4.10.0%0.0%----
San Francisco 49ers3.50.0%0.0%----

Getting into the playoffs will be the peak of the season one playoff team. There are 11 winning it all in at least two percent of simulations. At the top, the Saints have a 4 percentage point lead over the Patriots. The separation between the team with the #9 highest chances vs the #11 highest is 0.6 percentage points.

SUPERBOWL CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
New Orleans Saints3/125.0%22.7%--
New England Patriots5/116.7%19.1%--
Los Angeles Rams5/228.6%18%.0UP
Kansas City Chiefs9/218.2%16.9%--
Los Angeles Chargers9/110.0%5.8%DOWN
Seattle Seahawks40/12.4%3%.0UP
Houston Texans14/16.7%2.8%--
Pittsburgh Steelers12/17.7%2.7%DOWN
Baltimore Ravens40/12.4%2.6%UP
Chicago Bears20/14.8%2.1%DOWN
Dallas Cowboys30/13.2%2%.0--
Minnesota Vikings40/12.4%1.2%DOWN
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