NFL Super Bowl Futures: Chiefs Move Up After Loss

The relative difference at the top of the conference is small at 6%. The New England Patriots at 31.3% trails the Kansas City Chiefs at 33%. The gap seems to be widening. The Patriots chances are down from 40.4 percent. Expect the race for the final playoff spot to be tight. In simulations, the Ravens average the #6 most wins and the Colts average the #7 so the difference (-0.24 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be very small. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the conference with just 5 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

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Kansas City Chiefs12.790.8%100.0%6/5 (45.5%)33.0%
New England Patriots11.499.0%99.0%3/1 (25%)31.3%
Pittsburgh Steelers10.592.7%96.0%5/2 (28.6%)14.4%
Los Angeles Chargers10.79.2%91.6%8/1 (11.1%)10.3%
Houston Texans10.468.6%85.6%11/1 (8.3%)6.1%
Baltimore Ravens8.44.2%29.6%40/1 (2.4%)1.9%
Indianapolis Colts8.617.0%35.2%40/1 (2.4%)1.6%
Tennessee Titans8.414.2%23.2%80/1 (1.2%)0.8%
Cincinnati Bengals7.73.0%14.7%200/1 (0.5%)0.4%
Miami Dolphins7.70.7%10.4%200/1 (0.5%)--
Denver Broncos7.20.0%4.0%200/1 (0.5%)--
Jacksonville Jaguars5.90.2%0.9%400/1 (0.2%)--
Cleveland Browns5.70.1%1.2%900/1 (0.1%)--
New York Jets5.20.1%0.2%4000/1--
Buffalo Bills5.00.0%0.0%4000/1--
Oakland Raiders3.20.0%0.0%4000/1--

There is a 35% relative difference between the Saints and the Rams. The Los Angeles Rams at 32.1% trails the New Orleans Saints at 43.5%. The gap seems to be widening. The Rams chances are down from 42.8 percent. As far as teams fighting for the final playoff spots go, there is a very small difference in projected wins between the teams with the #5 best record and the team with the #7 best record. This is a very top heavy conference with just 4 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

New Orleans Saints13.699.2%100.0%10/11 (52.4%)43.5%
Los Angeles Rams13.7100.0%100.0%3/2 (40%)32.1%
Chicago Bears10.784.7%96.9%7/1 (12.5%)7.8%
Dallas Cowboys8.753.8%61.2%30/1 (3.2%)4.5%
Minnesota Vikings8.09.9%47.1%25/1 (3.8%)3.1%
Seattle Seahawks8.60.0%50.3%40/1 (2.4%)2.9%
Carolina Panthers8.60.8%48.2%40/1 (2.4%)2.3%
Green Bay Packers7.65.4%32.0%25/1 (3.8%)1.3%
Washington Redskins8.030.6%41.8%100/1 (1%)1.1%
Philadelphia Eagles7.115.3%16.8%50/1 (2%)1.0%
Atlanta Falcons6.60.0%3.6%150/1 (0.7%)0.2%
Detroit Lions6.40.0%1.3%500/1 (0.2%)--
New York Giants5.20.3%0.4%250/1 (0.4%)--
Tampa Bay Buccaneers5.10.0%0.2%1000/1 (0.1%)--
San Francisco 49ers4.10.0%0.0%5000/1--
Arizona Cardinals3.50.0%0.0%5000/1--

Getting into the playoffs will be the peak of the season for 4 teams. There are only 8 winning it all in at least two percent of simulations. At #2, the Chiefs have a 17 percent chance of winning the championship, which is 8 percentage points behind the Saints. The separation between the team with the #6 highest chances vs the #8 highest is 2.4 percentage points.

New Orleans Saints2/133.3%25%.0UP
Kansas City Chiefs3/125.0%17.3%--
New England Patriots8/111.1%17.2%DOWN
Los Angeles Rams3/125.0%16.1%DOWN
Pittsburgh Steelers7/112.5%6.9%--
Los Angeles Chargers20/14.8%4.7%DOWN
Chicago Bears16/15.9%3.1%--
Houston Texans25/13.8%2.3%UP
Dallas Cowboys60/11.6%1.7%UP
Minnesota Vikings50/12.0%1.2%DOWN
Seattle Seahawks80/11.2%1.1%DOWN