NFL Super Bowl Futures: Cleveland Not Worth the Price… Stick With Proven Patriots

There is a large 7.7% difference between the Patriots and the Chiefs. The Kansas City Chiefs at 24.1% trails the New England Patriots at 31.8%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Chiefs chances are down from 31 percent. Expect the race for the final playoff spot to be tight. In simulations, the Steelers average the #6 most wins and the Colts average the #7 so the difference (0.16 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be very small. This is a top heavy conference with just 6 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.  The Browns are favored to win the AFC North and capitalize on an easier schedule than Baltimore, but Ravens fans should like the fact that Baltimore has the higher chance of winning the conference despite having a lower chance of making the playoffs.  

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AFC FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
New England Patriots11.480.2%91.3%3/1 (25%)31.8%
Kansas City Chiefs10.953.6%83.2%3/1 (25%)24.1%
Los Angeles Chargers10.441.0%74.8%8/1 (11.1%)14.4%
Baltimore Ravens9.428.6%51.8%20/1 (4.8%)8.1%
Cleveland Browns9.943.3%64.3%7/1 (12.5%)7.4%
Pittsburgh Steelers9.026.4%45.4%15/1 (6.2%)5.1%
Indianapolis Colts8.850.0%55.4%8/1 (11.1%)3.2%
New York Jets8.919.0%42.4%30/1 (3.2%)2.2%
Houston Texans8.028.0%34.1%12/1 (7.7%)1.5%
Denver Broncos7.85.1%20.7%40/1 (2.4%)0.9%
Tennessee Titans6.28.5%10.5%40/1 (2.4%)0.6%
Jacksonville Jaguars6.713.5%16.4%20/1 (4.8%)0.5%
Cincinnati Bengals6.11.7%4.6%50/1 (2%)0.1%
Oakland Raiders5.30.3%1.7%30/1 (3.2%)--
Buffalo Bills5.70.6%2.7%50/1 (2%)--
Miami Dolphins4.60.2%0.7%50/1 (2%)--

There is a 4.8% difference between conference leaders. The New Orleans Saints lead with a 33.7 percent chance of winning the NFC and the Los Angeles Rams are at 28.9%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Rams chances are down from 32.9 percent. The playoff race should be a tight one with only 0.78 wins separate the 3 teams projected for the #5, #6 and #7 best conference record. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the conference with just 5 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

NFC FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
New Orleans Saints11.588.4%95.1%4/1 (20%)33.7%
Los Angeles Rams10.972.7%90.5%4/1 (20%)28.9%
Seattle Seahawks9.223.0%60.6%12/1 (7.7%)8.4%
Philadelphia Eagles8.644.8%54.0%10/1 (9.1%)7.5%
Chicago Bears8.836.6%52.4%8/1 (11.1%)6.3%
Minnesota Vikings8.024.9%36.7%10/1 (9.1%)3.5%
Dallas Cowboys8.026.5%37.5%10/1 (9.1%)3.0%
Detroit Lions7.616.4%28.6%40/1 (2.4%)2.0%
Green Bay Packers8.022.2%34.7%7/1 (12.5%)1.6%
Atlanta Falcons7.65.8%23.0%15/1 (6.2%)1.5%
New York Giants7.416.8%24.9%40/1 (2.4%)1.0%
Carolina Panthers6.92.9%12.9%25/1 (3.8%)0.8%
Washington Redskins6.611.9%17.0%50/1 (2%)0.7%
San Francisco 49ers7.24.2%19.6%15/1 (6.2%)0.6%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6.62.9%12.0%40/1 (2.4%)0.4%
Arizona Cardinals4.00.1%0.4%50/1 (2%)--

Getting into the playoffs will be the peak of the season one playoff team. There are 11 winning it all in at least two percent of simulations. At #2, the Saints have an 18 percent chance of winning the championship, which is 1 percentage points behind the Patriots. At the bottom of the contenders list, 0.8 percentage points separate the Browns from the Steelers.

SUPERBOWL CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
New England Patriots6/114.3%18.5%--
New Orleans Saints8/111.1%17.8%--
Los Angeles Rams8/111.1%14.5%--
Kansas City Chiefs6/114.3%13.9%--
Los Angeles Chargers16/15.9%7.5%--
Baltimore Ravens40/12.4%4.0%--
Seattle Seahawks25/13.8%3.6%--
Philadelphia Eagles20/14.8%3.3%--
Cleveland Browns14/16.7%3.2%--
Chicago Bears16/15.9%2.5%--
Pittsburgh Steelers30/13.2%2.4%--
Minnesota Vikings20/14.8%1.4%--
Indianapolis Colts16/15.9%1.4%--
Dallas Cowboys20/14.8%1.2%--