NFL Super Bowl Futures: New England #1, But Ravens Best Value

The difference at the top of the conference is very large at 18.2%. The Kansas City Chiefs at 22.4% trails the New England Patriots at 40.5%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Chiefs chances are down from 33 percent. The playoff race should be a tight one with only 0.26 wins separate the 3 teams projected for the #5, #6 and #7 best conference record. This is a top heavy conference with just 5 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

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New England Patriots12.397.4%99.0%7/5 (41.7%)40.5%
Kansas City Chiefs10.957.1%89.0%12/5 (29.4%)22.4%
Baltimore Ravens10.567.0%82.7%15/1 (6.2%)13.5%
Los Angeles Chargers10.239.8%80.1%10/1 (9.1%)10.9%
Tennessee Titans9.050.4%62.7%25/1 (3.8%)4.1%
Houston Texans8.126.8%39.7%15/1 (6.2%)2.7%
Cleveland Browns7.913.6%28.9%15/1 (6.2%)2.1%
Pittsburgh Steelers8.015.8%34.8%15/1 (6.2%)1.6%
Indianapolis Colts7.618.1%27.3%100/1 (1%)1.1%
Buffalo Bills7.11.8%13.8%30/1 (3.2%)0.4%
Denver Broncos6.41.3%8.8%50/1 (2%)0.2%
Oakland Raiders6.51.8%9.8%40/1 (2.4%)0.2%
Cincinnati Bengals6.53.5%10.1%150/1 (0.7%)0.1%
Jacksonville Jaguars5.94.6%7.4%100/1 (1%)0.1%
New York Jets6.00.8%5.7%50/1 (2%)--
Miami Dolphins3.70.1%0.2%5000/1--

There is a small 2.5% difference between conference leaders. The New Orleans Saints lead with a 27.7 percent chance of winning the NFC and the Los Angeles Rams are at 25.2%. The gap seems to be widening. The Rams chances are down from 32.9 percent. Expect the playoff race to be tight. In simulations, the Seahawks average the #5 most wins and the Packers average the #7 most so the difference (0.09 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be very small. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the conference, there are 7 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).

New Orleans Saints11.492.0%95.1%4/1 (20%)27.7%
Los Angeles Rams10.866.0%86.2%9/2 (18.2%)25.2%
Philadelphia Eagles9.956.1%71.5%9/2 (18.2%)10.4%
Dallas Cowboys9.437.9%59.9%7/1 (12.5%)8.4%
Seattle Seahawks9.223.2%54.8%12/1 (7.7%)8.2%
Minnesota Vikings9.035.6%51.2%8/1 (11.1%)6.1%
Green Bay Packers9.236.7%54.3%8/1 (11.1%)6.0%
Chicago Bears7.710.6%22.7%12/1 (7.7%)2.5%
Detroit Lions7.417.0%29.6%50/1 (2%)2.1%
San Francisco 49ers8.29.3%32.3%20/1 (4.8%)1.9%
Carolina Panthers7.25.2%15.3%30/1 (3.2%)1.0%
Washington Redskins6.33.6%7.9%250/1 (0.4%)0.2%
New York Giants6.12.5%5.8%150/1 (0.7%)0.2%
Atlanta Falcons6.21.9%6.3%25/1 (3.8%)0.2%
Arizona Cardinals5.41.5%4.9%150/1 (0.7%)--
Tampa Bay Buccaneers5.20.9%2.2%150/1 (0.7%)--

Getting into the playoffs will be the peak of the season one playoff team. There are 11 winning it all in at least two percent of simulations. At #2, the Saints have a 12.8 percent chance of winning the championship, which is 13.1 percentage points behind the Patriots. The separation between the team with the #9 highest chances vs the #11 highest is 1.2 percentage points.

New England Patriots3/125.0%25.9%UP
New Orleans Saints10/19.1%12.8%DOWN
Kansas City Chiefs5/116.7%12.8%DOWN
Los Angeles Rams12/17.7%12.3%DOWN
Baltimore Ravens30/13.2%7.0%--
Los Angeles Chargers20/14.8%5.5%DOWN
Philadelphia Eagles12/17.7%4.4%DOWN
Dallas Cowboys14/16.7%3.5%--
Seattle Seahawks25/13.8%3.5%DOWN
Minnesota Vikings16/15.9%2.4%DOWN
Green Bay Packers16/15.9%2.3%DOWN
Tennessee Titans50/12.0%1.6%UP
Houston Texans30/13.2%1.1%DOWN
Cleveland Browns30/13.2%1.0%DOWN