NFL Super Bowl Futures: Patriots at the Top of the AFC

There is a huge 15% difference between conference leaders. The New England Patriots lead with a 45.1 percent chance of winning the AFC and the Kansas City Chiefs are at 30%. The difference between these teams seems to be shrinking. The Patriots chances are down from 50.4 percent. The playoff race should be a tight one with only 0.43 wins separate the 3 teams projected for the #5, #6 and #7 best conference record. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the conference with just 5 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

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AFC FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
New England Patriots13.197.7%99.0%6/5 (45.5%)45.1%
Kansas City Chiefs12.082.5%97.9%3/2 (40%)30.0%
Los Angeles Chargers9.417.4%64.2%15/1 (6.2%)7.7%
Cleveland Browns9.143.6%57.7%15/1 (6.2%)4.6%
Baltimore Ravens9.136.0%53.8%20/1 (4.8%)4.1%
Tennessee Titans8.225.9%38.7%50/1 (2%)1.8%
Pittsburgh Steelers7.820.1%32.3%40/1 (2.4%)1.7%
Jacksonville Jaguars8.532.5%44.5%50/1 (2%)1.6%
Houston Texans7.920.0%33.1%20/1 (4.8%)1.4%
Indianapolis Colts7.821.6%28.7%50/1 (2%)1.1%
Buffalo Bills9.02.3%44.7%25/1 (3.8%)0.9%
Oakland Raiders5.60.1%2.6%100/1 (1%)--
Denver Broncos4.40.1%0.6%500/1 (0.2%)--
New York Jets4.60.1%0.5%500/1 (0.2%)--
Cincinnati Bengals4.50.4%0.6%1000/1 (0.1%)--
Miami Dolphins2.50.1%0.1%25000/1--

There is a large 7.8% difference between the Saints and the Bears. The New Orleans Saints lead with a 26.1 percent chance of winning the NFC and the Chicago Bears are at 18.3%. The difference between these teams seems to be shrinking. The Saints chances are down from 27.9 percent. As far as teams fighting for the final playoff spots go, there is a small difference in projected wins between the teams with the #5 best record and the team with the #7 best record. This is a top heavy conference with just 6 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

NFC FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
New Orleans Saints10.882.5%87.3%5/1 (16.7%)26.1%
Chicago Bears10.552.3%73.2%6/1 (14.3%)18.3%
Los Angeles Rams10.241.5%72.9%7/4 (36.4%)16.6%
Seattle Seahawks10.240.9%69.7%10/1 (9.1%)10.8%
Dallas Cowboys9.656.2%64.7%9/2 (18.2%)9.2%
Detroit Lions8.419.4%38.7%40/1 (2.4%)4.4%
Philadelphia Eagles8.733.8%42.3%7/1 (12.5%)3.7%
San Francisco 49ers9.317.5%45.6%12/1 (7.7%)3.7%
Green Bay Packers8.919.8%36.8%7/1 (12.5%)3.1%
Minnesota Vikings8.18.4%21.4%12/1 (7.7%)2.1%
Carolina Panthers7.66.7%13.0%30/1 (3.2%)0.9%
New York Giants7.59.9%16.3%50/1 (2%)0.5%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers7.39.3%14.1%50/1 (2%)0.5%
Atlanta Falcons6.11.5%3.5%100/1 (1%)0.1%
Arizona Cardinals4.10.1%0.3%1000/1 (0.1%)--
Washington Redskins4.40.2%0.3%2500/1--

All playoff teams may think they have a shot at winning the championship, but only 9 really do with at least a two percent chance. At #2, the Chiefs have an 18.5 percent chance of winning the championship, which is 10.5 percentage points behind the Patriots. The separation between the team with the #7 highest chances vs the #9 highest is 1.6 percentage points.

SUPERBOWL CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
New England Patriots5/228.6%29.0%--
Kansas City Chiefs7/222.2%18.5%UP
New Orleans Saints12/17.7%12.4%--
Chicago Bears14/16.7%7.9%UP
Los Angeles Rams16/15.9%6.9%DOWN
Los Angeles Chargers30/13.2%4.1%DOWN
Seattle Seahawks20/14.8%3.9%--
Dallas Cowboys10/19.1%3.3%DOWN
Cleveland Browns40/12.4%2.3%DOWN
Baltimore Ravens40/12.4%1.9%DOWN
Detroit Lions80/11.2%1.7%UP
Philadelphia Eagles16/15.9%1.2%DOWN
San Francisco 49ers25/13.8%1.1%DOWN
Green Bay Packers16/15.9%1.1%DOWN