NFL Super Bowl Futures: Patriots, Chiefs and Chargers are All Good Values

The difference at the top of the conference is small at 2.4%. The Kansas City Chiefs at 25.8% trails the New England Patriots at 28.2%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Chiefs chances are down from 33 percent. As far as teams fighting for the final playoff spots go, there is a very small difference in projected wins between the teams with the #5 best record and the team with the #7 best record. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the conference, there are 7 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).

Visit Sportsline to get the latest game forecasts, picks against the spread, totals and moneylines by the computer and top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

New England Patriots11.184.6%91.1%3/1 (25%)28.2%
Kansas City Chiefs10.753.4%83.0%3/1 (25%)25.8%
Los Angeles Chargers10.242.8%76.1%8/1 (11.1%)16.0%
Indianapolis Colts9.250.0%60.8%5/1 (16.7%)6.9%
Baltimore Ravens9.130.6%50.8%20/1 (4.8%)5.9%
Cleveland Browns9.336.9%55.5%8/1 (11.1%)5.8%
Pittsburgh Steelers8.729.1%46.8%10/1 (9.1%)4.6%
Houston Texans8.021.5%32.6%15/1 (6.2%)2.5%
Tennessee Titans7.214.9%21.8%50/1 (2%)1.1%
New York Jets7.711.4%25.0%40/1 (2.4%)1.1%
Jacksonville Jaguars7.213.6%20.6%30/1 (3.2%)0.9%
Denver Broncos7.13.3%14.8%40/1 (2.4%)0.7%
Buffalo Bills6.73.8%10.7%50/1 (2%)0.3%
Cincinnati Bengals6.33.3%7.5%50/1 (2%)0.2%
Oakland Raiders5.20.4%2.3%40/1 (2.4%)--
Miami Dolphins4.10.2%0.5%100/1 (1%)--

There is a 4.8% difference between conference leaders. The New Orleans Saints lead with a 26.4 percent chance of winning the NFC and the Los Angeles Rams are at 21.5%. The gap seems to be widening. The Rams chances are down from 32.9 percent. The playoff race should be a tight one with only 0.49 wins separate the 3 teams projected for the #5, #6 and #7 best conference record. There are 7 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the conference.

New Orleans Saints10.777.5%87.1%4/1 (20%)26.4%
Los Angeles Rams10.059.8%76.6%4/1 (20%)21.5%
Philadelphia Eagles9.557.2%68.8%7/1 (12.5%)11.2%
Seattle Seahawks9.029.1%54.4%15/1 (6.2%)9.0%
Chicago Bears8.934.6%51.9%7/1 (12.5%)8.5%
Green Bay Packers8.427.9%42.5%7/1 (12.5%)5.2%
Dallas Cowboys8.425.6%41.4%12/1 (7.7%)4.8%
Minnesota Vikings7.920.8%32.4%12/1 (7.7%)3.5%
Detroit Lions7.816.7%29.5%50/1 (2%)2.7%
Atlanta Falcons7.710.5%26.3%15/1 (6.2%)2.3%
San Francisco 49ers7.59.6%25.0%12/1 (7.7%)1.7%
Carolina Panthers7.38.2%20.5%30/1 (3.2%)1.5%
New York Giants7.09.5%17.1%50/1 (2%)0.8%
Washington Redskins6.57.7%13.0%50/1 (2%)0.5%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6.23.8%9.3%50/1 (2%)0.4%
Arizona Cardinals5.51.6%4.3%50/1 (2%)0.1%

There are a lot of fanbases who should think that they have a shot at the championship. There are 13 teams winning the championship in at least two percent of simulations. At the top, the Patriots have a 0.8 percentage point lead over the Chiefs. The separation between the team with the #11 highest chances vs the #13 highest is 0.8 percentage points.

New England Patriots6/114.3%16.7%--
Kansas City Chiefs6/114.3%15.8%--
New Orleans Saints8/111.1%13.7%--
Los Angeles Rams8/111.1%10.4%--
Los Angeles Chargers16/15.9%9.2%--
Philadelphia Eagles14/16.7%4.6%--
Chicago Bears14/16.7%3.8%--
Seattle Seahawks30/13.2%3.6%--
Indianapolis Colts10/19.1%3.1%--
Cleveland Browns16/15.9%2.9%--
Baltimore Ravens40/12.4%2.9%--
Green Bay Packers14/16.7%2.1%--
Pittsburgh Steelers20/14.8%2.1%--
Dallas Cowboys25/13.8%1.9%--
Minnesota Vikings25/13.8%1.2%--
Houston Texans30/13.2%1.2%--