NFL Super Bowl LIV Computer Simulation Picks

Sunday, February 02, 2020

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs

The odds favor the Chiefs, and the sims are solidly on the Chiefs as well. The projected score is Chiefs 28 and 49ers 26, with Kansas City winning 54% of the time. At -122 on the moneyline, the Chiefs implied probability to win is 55 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Kansas City won their lone matchup in recent seasons 38 to 27. The computer would set the spread at KC -2. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -1.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Chiefs are 10-4-1. As an underdog, the 49ers are 10-7-0. In their last match-up (KC won by 11) Kansas City covered the spread. The Chiefs were -6 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Francisco 49ers5426.225.747%46%27.0 (0 Wins)
Kansas City Chiefs-1.527.827.953%54%38.0 (1 Win)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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