NFL Week 1 Picks: Bet on the Ravens to Cover at Miami and the Over… Parlay With Cleveland?

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Thursday, September 05, 2019

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears

The odds and our simulations favor the Bears over the Packers, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is Bears 24 and Packers 20, and Chicago is winning 58% of the sims. The Bears are -176 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 64 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. They both have one win head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Bears averaged 47 points per game and the Packers 27. The projection based point spread is CHI -3.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -3.5. The Bears have a record of 9-4-0 as a favorite. The Packers have a record of 2-4-1 as an underdog. The Bears are 2-0-0 against the spread vs the Packers. The average point spread in these games was Packers -0.3 but the Bears won by an average of 19.7 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Green Bay Packers4621.220.138%41%27.3 (1 Win)
Chicago Bears-3.524.823.762%58%47.0 (1 Win)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Sunday, September 08, 2019

Los Angeles Rams vs Carolina Panthers

The odds favor the Rams, and the sims are solidly on the Rams as well. The projected score is Rams 30 and Panthers 24, with Los Angeles being given a 63% chance of winning. The Rams are -155 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 61 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at LAR -6.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening CAR +3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Rams are 8-7-2. As an underdog, the Panthers are 4-3-0. The Rams are 5-5-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Panthers were 5-3-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Rams5127.030.559%63%--
Carolina Panthers+3.024.024.141%37%--

Washington Redskins vs Philadelphia Eagles

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Eagles to win the game. The projected score is Eagles 28 and Redskins 18, with Philadelphia winning 71% of the time. At -393 on the moneyline, the Eagles implied probability to win is 80 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Eagles have the recent head-to-head edge going 2-0. In these games the Eagles averaged 52 points per game and the Redskins 13. The computer would set the spread at PHI -10. Bettors seem to be favoring the Eagles as the Vegas line has moved from -8.5 to -9. The Eagles have a record of 4-7-1 as a favorite. The Redskins have a record of 8-5-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Eagles are 2-0-0 against the spread vs the Redskins. The Eagles were favored by an average of -5.8 points in these games and they won by an average of 39 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Redskins46.518.818.123%28%13.0 (0 Wins)
Philadelphia Eagles-9.027.728.177%71%52.0 (2 Wins)

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

The odds and our simulations favor the Jets over the Bills. The projected score is Jets 25 and Bills 20, and New York is winning 61% of simulations. At -168 on the moneyline, the Jets implied probability to win is 63 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. They both have one win head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Bills averaged 43 and the Jets 37 ppg. The projection based point spread is NYJ -5.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Jets are 1-2-0. As an underdog, the Bills are 6-7-0. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. Both have covered the spread once head-to-head. The Jets were favored by an average of -1.2 points in these games but the Bills won by an average of 5.7 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Buffalo Bills38.517.819.739%38%42.7 (1 Win)
New York Jets-3.020.725.261%61%37.0 (1 Win)

Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is Vikings 24 and Falcons 21, with Minnesota winning 56% of the time. At -191 on the moneyline, the Vikings implied probability to win is 66 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is MIN -3. More of the action seems to be on the Vikings with the Vegas line moving from -3.5 to -4. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Vikings are 6-3-1. As an underdog, the Falcons are 1-3-0. The Falcons are 2-6-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Vikings were 4-3-1 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Atlanta Falcons47.521.821.037%43%--
Minnesota Vikings-4.025.723.963%56%--

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Ravens to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Ravens 26 and Dolphins 19, with Baltimore winning 68% of the latest sims. At -213 on the moneyline, the Ravens implied probability to win is 68 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at BAL -8. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening MIA +4.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Ravens are 4-9-0. As an underdog, the Dolphins are 4-7-0. The Ravens are 5-3-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Dolphins were 6-2-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Baltimore Ravens37.521.026.565%68%--
Miami Dolphins+4.516.518.635%31%--

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars

The odds and our simulations favor the Chiefs over the Jaguars despite being on the road. The projected score is Chiefs 27 and Jaguars 21, with Kansas City winning 62% of the latest sims. At -193 on the moneyline, the Chiefs implied probability to win is 66 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Head-to-head, the Chiefs are 1-0. In these games, the Chiefs averaged 30 and the Jaguars 28 ppg. The computer would set the spread at KC -6. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening JAC +4. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Chiefs are 7-6-0. As an underdog, the Jaguars are 3-4-2. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Chiefs have the ATS edge head to head going 1-0-0 vs the Jaguars. The average point spread in these games was Chiefs -1.5 and they won by an average of 2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Kansas City Chiefs52.528.226.664%62%30.0 (1 Win)
Jacksonville Jaguars+4.024.320.836%37%28.0 (0 Wins)

Tennessee Titans vs Cleveland Browns

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Browns over the Titans. The projected score is Browns 25 and Titans 18, with Cleveland winning 66% of the time. The Browns are -244 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 71 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at CLE -7. More of the action seems to be on the Browns with the Vegas line moving from -5 to -5.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Browns are 1-2-0. As an underdog, the Titans are 6-4-0. The Titans are 4-4-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Browns were 5-3-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Tennessee Titans45.520.017.632%33%--
Cleveland Browns-5.525.524.868%66%--

Cincinnati Bengals vs Seattle Seahawks

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Seahawks to win the game. The projected score is Seahawks 29 and Bengals 19, and Seattle is winning 74% of the sims. The moneyline for the Seahawks is -446 which translates to 82 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at SEA -10. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -9.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Seahawks are 4-3-1. As an underdog, the Bengals are 6-4-0. The Bengals are 6-2-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Seahawks were 5-2-1 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cincinnati Bengals43.517.018.922%25%--
Seattle Seahawks-9.526.528.978%74%--

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Chargers

The odds favor the Chargers, and the sims are solidly on the Chargers as well. The projected score is Chargers 25 and Colts 22, with Los Angeles winning 57% of the time. The Chargers are -160 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 62 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at LAC -3.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -3. The Chargers have a record of 5-6-0 as a favorite. The Colts have a record of 4-5-0 as an underdog. The Colts are 6-4-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Chargers were 2-5-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Indianapolis Colts4822.521.741%42%--
Los Angeles Chargers-3.025.525.059%57%--

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds favor the Buccaneers. The projected score is Buccaneers 28 and 49ers 25, and Tampa Bay is winning 54% of simulations. The Buccaneers are -113 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 53 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Tampa Bay won their lone matchup in recent seasons 54 to 18. The projection based point spread is TB -2.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -1. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Buccaneers are 1-3-0. As an underdog, the 49ers are 5-7-0. In their last match-up (TB won by 36) Tampa Bay covered the spread. The Buccaneers were -2 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Francisco 49ers4924.025.249%46%18.0 (0 Wins)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-1.025.027.551%54%54.0 (1 Win)

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Cowboys 26 and Giants 18, and Dallas is winning 67% of the sims. At -344 on the moneyline, the Cowboys implied probability to win is 77 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Cowboys are up in this matchup recently going 2-0. In these games the Cowboys averaged 56 points per game and the Giants 48. The computer would set the spread at DAL -8.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -7.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Cowboys are 3-3-2. As an underdog, the Giants are 7-6-0. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Cowboys have the ATS edge head to head going 2-0-0 vs the Giants. The average point spread in these games was Giants -2.2 but the Cowboys won by an average of 8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Giants46.519.517.726%32%48.0 (0 Wins)
Dallas Cowboys-7.527.026.074%67%56.0 (2 Wins)

Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals

The odds favor the Lions, and the sims are solidly on the Lions as well. The projected score is Lions 25 and Cardinals 20, with Detroit being given a 61% chance of winning. The Lions are -137 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 58 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In their last 2 matchups the Lions are 1-0. In these games, the Lions averaged 17 and the Cardinals 6 ppg. The computer would set the spread at DET -5. More of the action seems to be on the Lions as the Vegas line has moved from +1.5 to 2.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Lions are 3-2-0. As an underdog, the Cardinals are 7-6-1. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Lions are 1-0-0 against the spread vs the Cardinals. The average point spread in these games was Lions -1.2 and they won by an average of 11 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Lions47.525.025.256%61%17.0 (1 Win)
Arizona Cardinals+2.522.520.344%38%6.0 (0 Wins)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Patriots over the Steelers. The projected score is Patriots 27 and Steelers 20, and New England is winning 67% of simulations. At -261 on the moneyline, the Patriots implied probability to win is 72 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. Head-to-head, the Steelers are 1-0. In these games the Patriots averaged 20 points per game and the Steelers 17. The projection based point spread is NE -7.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -6. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Patriots are 11-7-0. As an underdog, the Steelers are 5-0-0. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Steelers have the ATS edge head to head going 1-0-0 vs the Patriots. The Patriots were favored by -2.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Steelers51.522.819.531%33%17.0 (1 Win)
New England Patriots-6.028.726.969%67%20.0 (0 Wins)

Monday, September 09, 2019

Houston Texans vs New Orleans Saints

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Saints to win the game. The projected score is Saints 30 and Texans 20, and New Orleans is winning 71% of simulations. The moneyline for the Saints is -306 which translates to 75 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is NO -10. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -7. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Saints are 7-8-0. As an underdog, the Texans are 2-1-1. The Texans are 3-3-2 ATS on the road since last season. The Saints were 4-6-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Texans53.523.220.128%28%--
New Orleans Saints-7.030.329.972%71%--

Denver Broncos vs Oakland Raiders

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds favor the Raiders. The projected score is Broncos 24 and Raiders 23, and Denver is winning 50% of simulations. At -133 on the moneyline, the Raiders implied probability to win is 57 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. They both have one win head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Raiders averaged 46 points per game and the Broncos 23. The computer would set this game as a pick 'em. With more action on the Broncos, oddsmakers have moved the line from +2.5 to +2. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Raiders are 1-1-0. As an underdog, the Broncos are 4-3-0. The Raiders are 2-0-0 against the spread vs the Broncos. The average point spread in these games was Broncos -2.8 but the Raiders won by an average of 23.3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Denver Broncos43.520.823.745%50%22.7 (1 Win)
Oakland Raiders-2.022.723.655%49%46.0 (1 Win)