NFL Week 1 Picks: Lean on Patriots vs Steelers, Browns vs Titans, and Lions at Arizona

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Thursday, September 05, 2019

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears

The Bears are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is Bears 24 and Packers 20, and Chicago is winning 58% of simulations. The moneyline for the Bears is -174 which translates to 64 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. They both have one win head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Bears averaged 47 points per game and the Packers 27. The projection based point spread is CHI -3.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Packers with the Vegas moving from +3.5 to +3. The Bears have a record of 9-4-0 as a favorite. The Packers have a record of 2-4-1 as an underdog. The Bears have the ATS edge head to head going 2-0-0 vs the Packers. The average point spread in these games was Packers -0.3 but the Bears won by an average of 19.7 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Green Bay Packers4621.520.139%41%27.3 (1 Win)
Chicago Bears-3.024.523.761%58%47.0 (1 Win)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Sunday, September 08, 2019

Los Angeles Rams vs Carolina Panthers

The odds favor the Rams, and the sims are solidly on the Rams as well. The projected score is Rams 30 and Panthers 24, and Los Angeles is winning 63% of simulations. The Rams are -152 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 60 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at LAR -6.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening CAR +3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Rams are 8-7-2. As an underdog, the Panthers are 4-3-0. The Rams are 5-5-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Panthers were 5-3-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Rams5127.030.558%63%--
Carolina Panthers+3.024.024.142%37%--

Washington Redskins vs Philadelphia Eagles

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Eagles over the Redskins. The projected score is Eagles 28 and Redskins 18, and Philadelphia is winning 71% of the sims. The Eagles are -393 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 80 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Eagles are up in this matchup recently going 2-0. In these games the Eagles averaged 52 points per game and the Redskins 13. The projection based point spread is PHI -10. Bettors seem to be favoring the Eagles as the Vegas line has moved from -8.5 to -9. The Eagles have a record of 4-7-1 as a favorite. The Redskins have a record of 8-5-0 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Eagles have the ATS edge head to head going 2-0-0 vs the Redskins. The Eagles were favored by an average of -5.8 points in these games and they won by an average of 39 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Redskins46.518.818.123%28%13.0 (0 Wins)
Philadelphia Eagles-9.027.728.177%71%52.0 (2 Wins)

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

The Jets are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Jets 25 and Bills 20, and New York is winning 62% of the sims. The Jets are -167 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 63 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. They both have one win head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Bills averaged 43 and the Jets 37 ppg. The projection based point spread is NYJ -5.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -3. The Jets have a record of 1-2-0 as a favorite. The Bills have a record of 6-7-0 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. Both have covered the spread once head-to-head. The Jets were favored by an average of -1.2 points in these games but the Bills won by an average of 5.7 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Buffalo Bills38.517.819.639%38%42.7 (1 Win)
New York Jets-3.020.725.161%62%37.0 (1 Win)

Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings

The odds and our simulations favor the Vikings over the Falcons, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is Vikings 24 and Falcons 21, and Minnesota is winning 58% of the sims. The moneyline for the Vikings is -193 which translates to 66 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at MIN -3.5. With more action on the Falcons, oddsmakers have moved the line from +4.5 to +4. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Vikings are 6-3-1. As an underdog, the Falcons are 1-3-0. The Falcons are 2-6-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Vikings were 4-3-1 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Atlanta Falcons47.521.820.836%41%--
Minnesota Vikings-4.025.724.364%58%--

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins

The Ravens are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Ravens 27 and Dolphins 18, and Baltimore is winning 70% of simulations. The moneyline for the Ravens is -213 which translates to 68 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at BAL -9. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening MIA +4.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Ravens are 4-9-0. As an underdog, the Dolphins are 4-7-0. The Ravens are 5-3-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Dolphins were 6-2-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Baltimore Ravens37.521.026.865%70%--
Miami Dolphins+4.516.518.035%30%--

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Chiefs to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Chiefs 28 and Jaguars 21, with Kansas City being given a 65% chance of winning. The Chiefs are -193 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 66 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In their last 2 matchups the Chiefs are 1-0. In these games, the Chiefs averaged 30 and the Jaguars 28 ppg. The computer would set the spread at KC -7. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening JAC +4. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Chiefs are 7-6-0. As an underdog, the Jaguars are 3-4-2. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Chiefs are 1-0-0 against the spread vs the Jaguars. The average point spread in these games was Chiefs -1.5 and they won by an average of 2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Kansas City Chiefs52.528.227.764%65%30.0 (1 Win)
Jacksonville Jaguars+4.024.320.736%35%28.0 (0 Wins)

Tennessee Titans vs Cleveland Browns

The Browns are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Browns 25 and Titans 18, with Cleveland winning 64% of the time. The Browns are -244 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 71 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at CLE -7. More of the action seems to be on the Browns with the Vegas line moving from -5 to -5.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Browns are 1-2-0. As an underdog, the Titans are 6-4-0. The Titans are 4-4-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Browns were 5-3-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Tennessee Titans45.520.017.732%36%--
Cleveland Browns-5.525.524.768%64%--

Cincinnati Bengals vs Seattle Seahawks

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Seahawks over the Bengals. The projected score is Seahawks 29 and Bengals 19, with Seattle winning 72% of the time. The moneyline for the Seahawks is -446 which translates to 82 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at SEA -10. More of the action seems to be on the Seahawks with the Vegas line moving from -7.5 to -9.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Seahawks are 4-3-1. As an underdog, the Bengals are 6-4-0. The Bengals are 6-2-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Seahawks were 5-2-1 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cincinnati Bengals43.517.018.822%27%--
Seattle Seahawks-9.526.528.778%72%--

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Chargers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Chargers to win the game. The projected score is Chargers 25 and Colts 20, and Los Angeles is winning 63% of simulations. At -196 on the moneyline, the Chargers implied probability to win is 66 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Chargers since the moneyline is moving that way. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is LAC -5. The Colts are 6-4-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Chargers were 2-5-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Indianapolis Colts47.523.820.236%37%--
Los Angeles ChargersPK23.725.464%63%--

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds favor the Buccaneers. The projected score is Buccaneers 27 and 49ers 26, with Tampa Bay winning 50% of the time. At -112 on the moneyline, the Buccaneers implied probability to win is 53 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. Tampa Bay won their lone matchup in recent seasons 54 to 18. The computer would set the spread at TB -1. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -1. The Buccaneers have a record of 1-3-0 as a favorite. The 49ers have a record of 5-7-0 as an underdog. In their last match-up (TB won by 36) Tampa Bay covered the spread. The Buccaneers were -2 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Francisco 49ers4924.026.449%49%18.0 (0 Wins)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-1.025.027.051%50%54.0 (1 Win)

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Cowboys to win the game. The projected score is Cowboys 26 and Giants 18, and Dallas is winning 68% of simulations. The Cowboys are -346 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 78 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Cowboys are up in this matchup recently going 2-0. In these games the Cowboys averaged 56 points per game and the Giants 48. The computer would set the spread at DAL -8. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -7.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Cowboys are 3-3-2. As an underdog, the Giants are 7-6-0. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Cowboys have the ATS edge head to head going 2-0-0 vs the Giants. The average point spread in these games was Giants -2.2 but the Cowboys won by an average of 8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Giants4619.217.926%32%48.0 (0 Wins)
Dallas Cowboys-7.526.826.074%68%56.0 (2 Wins)

Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals

The odds favor the Lions, and the sims are solidly on the Lions as well. The projected score is Lions 24 and Cardinals 20, and Detroit is winning 61% of simulations. At -136 on the moneyline, the Lions implied probability to win is 58 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Head-to-head, the Lions are 1-0. In these games, the Lions averaged 17 and the Cardinals 6 ppg. The projection based point spread is DET -4.5. More of the action seems to be on the Lions as the Vegas line has moved from +1.5 to 2.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Lions are 3-2-0. As an underdog, the Cardinals are 7-6-1. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Lions have the ATS edge head to head going 1-0-0 vs the Cardinals. The average point spread in these games was Lions -1.2 and they won by an average of 11 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Lions47.525.024.455%61%17.0 (1 Win)
Arizona Cardinals+2.522.520.045%38%6.0 (0 Wins)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Patriots to win the game. The projected score is Patriots 27 and Steelers 19, and New England is winning 67% of the sims. At -261 on the moneyline, the Patriots implied probability to win is 72 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In their last 2 matchups the Steelers are 1-0. In these games the Patriots averaged 20 points per game and the Steelers 17. The projection based point spread is NE -8. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -6. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Patriots are 11-7-0. As an underdog, the Steelers are 5-0-0. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Steelers are 1-0-0 against the spread vs the Patriots. The Patriots were favored by -2.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Steelers51.522.819.031%33%17.0 (1 Win)
New England Patriots-6.028.727.169%67%20.0 (0 Wins)

Monday, September 09, 2019

Houston Texans vs New Orleans Saints

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Saints to win the game. The projected score is Saints 29 and Texans 21, and New Orleans is winning 67% of simulations. The Saints are -306 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 75 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at NO -8. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -7. The Saints have a record of 7-8-0 as a favorite. The Texans have a record of 2-1-1 as an underdog. The Texans are 3-3-2 ATS on the road since last season. The Saints were 4-6-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Texans53.523.220.828%32%--
New Orleans Saints-7.030.329.072%67%--

Denver Broncos vs Oakland Raiders

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds favor the Raiders. The projected score is Raiders 24 and Broncos 23, and Oakland is winning 51% of simulations. At -132 on the moneyline, the Raiders implied probability to win is 57 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. They both have one win head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Raiders averaged 46 points per game and the Broncos 23. The projection based point spread is OAK -1. Bettors seem to be favoring the Broncos with the Vegas moving from +2.5 to +1.5. The Raiders have a record of 1-1-0 as a favorite. The Broncos have a record of 4-3-0 as an underdog. The Raiders are 2-0-0 against the spread vs the Broncos. The average point spread in these games was Broncos -2.8 but the Raiders won by an average of 23.3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Denver Broncos43.521.022.845%49%22.7 (1 Win)
Oakland Raiders-1.522.523.755%51%46.0 (1 Win)