NFL Week 1 Picks: Lock in Baltimore to Cover the Spread vs Miami Dolphins

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Thursday, September 05, 2019

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears

The Bears are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Bears 25 and Packers 20, and Chicago is winning 61% of simulations. At -185 on the moneyline, the Bears implied probability to win is 65 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. They both have one win head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Bears averaged 47 points per game and the Packers 27. The computer would set the spread at CHI -4.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -3.5. The Bears have a record of 9-4-0 as a favorite. The Packers have a record of 2-4-1 as an underdog. The Bears are 2-0-0 against the spread vs the Packers. The average point spread in these games was Packers -0.3 but the Bears won by an average of 19.7 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Green Bay Packers4621.220.337%39%27.3 (1 Win)
Chicago Bears-3.524.824.963%61%47.0 (1 Win)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Sunday, September 08, 2019

Los Angeles Rams vs Carolina Panthers

The odds favor the Rams, and the sims are solidly on the Rams as well. The projected score is Rams 30 and Panthers 24, and Los Angeles is winning 61% of simulations. The Rams are -153 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 60 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at LAR -5.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening CAR +3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Rams are 8-7-2. As an underdog, the Panthers are 4-3-0. The Rams are 5-5-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Panthers were 5-3-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Rams5127.029.858%61%--
Carolina Panthers+3.024.024.542%39%--

Washington Redskins vs Philadelphia Eagles

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Eagles over the Redskins. The projected score is Eagles 27 and Redskins 18, and Philadelphia is winning 71% of the sims. The Eagles are -395 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 80 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Eagles have the recent head-to-head edge going 2-0. In these games the Eagles averaged 52 points per game and the Redskins 13. The projection based point spread is PHI -9. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -8.5. The Eagles have a record of 4-7-1 as a favorite. The Redskins have a record of 8-5-0 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Eagles are 2-0-0 against the spread vs the Redskins. The Eagles were favored by an average of -5.8 points in these games and they won by an average of 39 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Redskins46.519.018.323%29%13.0 (0 Wins)
Philadelphia Eagles-8.527.527.477%71%52.0 (2 Wins)

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

The odds and our simulations favor the Jets over the Bills, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is Jets 23 and Bills 18, and New York is winning 59% of the sims. The moneyline for the Jets is -177 which translates to 64 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. They both have one win head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Bills averaged 43 and the Jets 37 ppg. The projection based point spread is NYJ -4.5. With more action on the Bills, oddsmakers have moved the line from +3.5 to +3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Jets are 1-2-0. As an underdog, the Bills are 6-7-0. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. They have both covered the spread once in their last few matchups. The Jets were favored by an average of -1.2 points in these games but the Bills won by an average of 5.7 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Buffalo Bills38.517.818.339%40%42.7 (1 Win)
New York Jets-3.020.722.861%59%37.0 (1 Win)

Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Vikings to win the game, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is Vikings 24 and Falcons 21, with Minnesota winning 57% of the time. The Vikings are -192 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 66 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at MIN -3. More of the action seems to be on the Vikings with the Vegas line moving from -3.5 to -4. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Vikings are 6-3-1. As an underdog, the Falcons are 1-3-0. The Falcons are 2-6-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Vikings were 4-3-1 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Atlanta Falcons47.521.821.337%42%--
Minnesota Vikings-4.025.724.563%57%--

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins

The Ravens are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Ravens 25 and Dolphins 15, and Baltimore is winning 72% of simulations. The moneyline for the Ravens is -206 which translates to 67 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at BAL -9.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Ravens as the Vegas line has moved from +4 to 4.5. The Ravens have a record of 4-9-0 as a favorite. The Dolphins have a record of 4-7-0 as an underdog. The Ravens are 5-3-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Dolphins were 6-2-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Baltimore Ravens3720.824.665%72%--
Miami Dolphins+4.516.215.235%27%--

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars

The odds and our simulations favor the Chiefs over the Jaguars despite being on the road. The projected score is Chiefs 28 and Jaguars 23, and Kansas City is winning 61% of simulations. The Chiefs are -185 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 65 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Head-to-head, the Chiefs are 1-0. In these games, the Chiefs averaged 30 and the Jaguars 28 ppg. The projection based point spread is KC -6. Bettors seem to be favoring the Jaguars with the Vegas moving from +5 to +3.5. The Chiefs have a record of 7-6-0 as a favorite. The Jaguars have a record of 3-4-2 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Chiefs have the ATS edge head to head going 1-0-0 vs the Jaguars. The average point spread in these games was Chiefs -1.5 and they won by an average of 2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Kansas City Chiefs51.527.528.563%61%30.0 (1 Win)
Jacksonville Jaguars+3.524.022.637%38%28.0 (0 Wins)

Tennessee Titans vs Cleveland Browns

The Browns are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Browns 25 and Titans 18, and Cleveland is winning 66% of simulations. The Browns are -235 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 70 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at CLE -7.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Browns as the Vegas line has moved from -5 to -5.5. The Browns have a record of 1-2-0 as a favorite. The Titans have a record of 6-4-0 as an underdog. The Titans are 4-4-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Browns were 5-3-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Tennessee Titans45.520.017.533%33%--
Cleveland Browns-5.525.524.867%66%--

Cincinnati Bengals vs Seattle Seahawks

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Seahawks to win the game. The projected score is Seahawks 29 and Bengals 19, and Seattle is winning 74% of simulations. The moneyline for the Seahawks is -403 which translates to 80 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at SEA -10. More of the action seems to be on the Seahawks with the Vegas line moving from -7.5 to -8.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Seahawks are 4-3-1. As an underdog, the Bengals are 6-4-0. The Bengals are 6-2-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Seahawks were 5-2-1 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cincinnati Bengals43.517.519.323%26%--
Seattle Seahawks-8.526.029.377%74%--

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Chargers

The odds favor the Chargers, and the sims are solidly on the Chargers as well. The projected score is Chargers 26 and Colts 21, with Los Angeles winning 60% of the time. The Chargers are -160 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 62 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at LAC -4.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -3. The Chargers have a record of 5-6-0 as a favorite. The Colts have a record of 4-5-0 as an underdog. The Colts are 6-4-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Chargers were 2-5-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Indianapolis Colts47.522.221.141%39%--
Los Angeles Chargers-3.025.325.759%60%--

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds favor the Buccaneers. The projected score is Buccaneers 27 and 49ers 26, and Tampa Bay is winning 52% of the sims. At -113 on the moneyline, the Buccaneers implied probability to win is 53 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Tampa Bay won their lone matchup in recent seasons 54 to 18. The projection based point spread is TB -1. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -1. The Buccaneers have a record of 1-3-0 as a favorite. The 49ers have a record of 5-7-0 as an underdog. In their last match-up (TB won by 36) Tampa Bay covered the spread. The Buccaneers were -2 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Francisco 49ers4924.026.049%48%18.0 (0 Wins)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-1.025.027.151%52%54.0 (1 Win)

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Cowboys to win the game. The projected score is Cowboys 26 and Giants 18, with Dallas winning 67% of the time. At -335 on the moneyline, the Cowboys implied probability to win is 77 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Cowboys are up in this matchup recently going 2-0. In these games the Cowboys averaged 56 points per game and the Giants 48. The computer would set the spread at DAL -7.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -7.5. The Cowboys have a record of 3-3-2 as a favorite. The Giants have a record of 7-6-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Cowboys have the ATS edge head to head going 2-0-0 vs the Giants. The average point spread in these games was Giants -2.2 but the Cowboys won by an average of 8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Giants46.519.518.426%32%48.0 (0 Wins)
Dallas Cowboys-7.527.026.074%67%56.0 (2 Wins)

Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals

The odds favor the Lions, and the sims are solidly on the Lions as well. The projected score is Lions 25 and Cardinals 22, with Detroit being given a 56% chance of winning. The Lions are -129 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 56 percent. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Lions to win. Head-to-head, the Lions are 1-0. In these games, the Lions averaged 17 and the Cardinals 6 ppg. The computer would set the spread at DET -2.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Lions as the Vegas line has moved from +1.5 to 2.5. The Lions have a record of 3-2-0 as a favorite. The Cardinals have a record of 7-6-1 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Lions have the ATS edge head to head going 1-0-0 vs the Cardinals. The average point spread in these games was Lions -1.2 and they won by an average of 11 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Lions48.525.524.654%56%17.0 (1 Win)
Arizona Cardinals+2.523.022.046%44%6.0 (0 Wins)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Patriots over the Steelers. The projected score is Patriots 29 and Steelers 19, and New England is winning 72% of the sims. The Patriots are -261 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 72 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Head-to-head, the Steelers are 1-0. In these games the Patriots averaged 20 points per game and the Steelers 17. The computer would set the spread at NE -10. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -6. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Patriots are 11-7-0. As an underdog, the Steelers are 5-0-0. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Steelers have the ATS edge head to head going 1-0-0 vs the Patriots. The Patriots were favored by -2.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Steelers5223.018.831%27%17.0 (1 Win)
New England Patriots-6.029.028.669%72%20.0 (0 Wins)

Monday, September 09, 2019

Houston Texans vs New Orleans Saints

The Saints are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Saints 29 and Texans 20, with New Orleans winning 67% of the time. At -302 on the moneyline, the Saints implied probability to win is 75 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is NO -8.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Texans with the Vegas moving from +7.5 to +6.5. The Saints have a record of 7-8-0 as a favorite. The Texans have a record of 2-1-1 as an underdog. The Texans are 3-3-2 ATS on the road since last season. The Saints were 4-6-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Texans53.523.520.528%32%--
New Orleans Saints-6.530.028.972%67%--

Denver Broncos vs Oakland Raiders

The simulations disagree with the Vegas odds who have the Broncos as betting underdogs. They are slight favorites in simulations. The projected score is Broncos 24 and Raiders 23, with Denver winning 51% of the latest sims. At -137 on the moneyline, the Raiders implied probability to win is 58 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. They both have one win head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Raiders averaged 46 points per game and the Broncos 23. The computer would set the spread at DEN 0. With more action on the Broncos, oddsmakers have moved the line from +3 to +2.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Raiders are 1-1-0. As an underdog, the Broncos are 4-3-0. The Raiders are 2-0-0 against the spread vs the Broncos. The average point spread in these games was Broncos -2.8 but the Raiders won by an average of 23.3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Denver Broncos4320.223.644%51%22.7 (1 Win)
Oakland Raiders-2.522.823.456%49%46.0 (1 Win)