NFL Week 1 Picks: Take Patriots to Cover at Home vs Steelers

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Thursday, September 05, 2019

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears

The odds and our simulations favor the Bears over the Packers, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is Bears 24 and Packers 20, with Chicago winning 60% of the time. The moneyline for the Bears is -171 which translates to 63 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. They both have one win head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Bears averaged 47 points per game and the Packers 27. The computer would set the spread at CHI -4. Bettors seem to be favoring the Packers with the Vegas moving from +3.5 to +3. The Bears have a record of 9-4-0 as a favorite. The Packers have a record of 2-4-1 as an underdog. The Bears are 2-0-0 against the spread vs the Packers. The average point spread in these games was Packers -0.3 but the Bears won by an average of 19.7 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Green Bay Packers4621.520.339%40%27.3 (1 Win)
Chicago Bears-3.024.524.461%60%47.0 (1 Win)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Sunday, September 08, 2019

Los Angeles Rams vs Carolina Panthers

The odds favor the Rams, and the sims are solidly on the Rams as well. The projected score is Rams 30 and Panthers 24, with Los Angeles being given a 62% chance of winning. At -152 on the moneyline, the Rams implied probability to win is 60 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is LAR -6. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening CAR +3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Rams are 8-7-2. As an underdog, the Panthers are 4-3-0. The Rams are 5-5-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Panthers were 5-3-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Rams5127.030.058%62%--
Carolina Panthers+3.024.024.242%38%--

Washington Redskins vs Philadelphia Eagles

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Eagles over the Redskins. The projected score is Eagles 28 and Redskins 18, and Philadelphia is winning 71% of the sims. The Eagles are -401 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 80 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Eagles have the recent head-to-head edge going 2-0. In these games the Eagles averaged 52 points per game and the Redskins 13. The projection based point spread is PHI -9.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -8.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Eagles are 4-7-1. As an underdog, the Redskins are 8-5-0. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Eagles are 2-0-0 against the spread vs the Redskins. The Eagles were favored by an average of -5.8 points in these games and they won by an average of 39 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Redskins46.519.018.323%28%13.0 (0 Wins)
Philadelphia Eagles-8.527.527.877%71%52.0 (2 Wins)

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

The odds and our simulations favor the Jets over the Bills. The projected score is Jets 25 and Bills 20, with New York winning 61% of the time. The moneyline for the Jets is -167 which translates to 63 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. They both have one win head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Bills averaged 43 and the Jets 37 ppg. The projection based point spread is NYJ -5.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -3. The Jets have a record of 1-2-0 as a favorite. The Bills have a record of 6-7-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. Both have covered the spread once head-to-head. The Jets were favored by an average of -1.2 points in these games but the Bills won by an average of 5.7 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Buffalo Bills39.518.219.540%38%42.7 (1 Win)
New York Jets-3.021.325.160%61%37.0 (1 Win)

Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings

The odds and our simulations favor the Vikings over the Falcons, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is Vikings 24 and Falcons 21, and Minnesota is winning 56% of simulations. At -198 on the moneyline, the Vikings implied probability to win is 66 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is MIN -3.5. With more action on the Falcons, oddsmakers have moved the line from +4.5 to +4. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Vikings are 6-3-1. As an underdog, the Falcons are 1-3-0. The Falcons are 2-6-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Vikings were 4-3-1 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Atlanta Falcons47.521.821.236%43%--
Minnesota Vikings-4.025.724.564%56%--

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Ravens over the Dolphins despite being on the road. The projected score is Ravens 27 and Dolphins 18, with Baltimore winning 70% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the Ravens is -224 which translates to 69 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at BAL -8.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening MIA +4.5. The Ravens have a record of 4-9-0 as a favorite. The Dolphins have a record of 4-7-0 as an underdog. The Ravens are 5-3-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Dolphins were 6-2-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Baltimore Ravens37.521.026.766%70%--
Miami Dolphins+4.516.518.034%30%--

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Chiefs to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Chiefs 27 and Jaguars 21, with Kansas City winning 64% of the latest sims. At -202 on the moneyline, the Chiefs implied probability to win is 67 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In their last 2 matchups the Chiefs are 1-0. In these games, the Chiefs averaged 30 and the Jaguars 28 ppg. The projection based point spread is KC -6.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening JAC +4. The Chiefs have a record of 7-6-0 as a favorite. The Jaguars have a record of 3-4-2 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Chiefs are 1-0-0 against the spread vs the Jaguars. The average point spread in these games was Chiefs -1.5 and they won by an average of 2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Kansas City Chiefs52.528.227.365%64%30.0 (1 Win)
Jacksonville Jaguars+4.024.320.735%35%28.0 (0 Wins)

Tennessee Titans vs Cleveland Browns

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Browns over the Titans. The projected score is Browns 25 and Titans 18, and Cleveland is winning 66% of the sims. At -246 on the moneyline, the Browns implied probability to win is 71 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at CLE -7. Bettors seem to be favoring the Browns as the Vegas line has moved from -5 to -5.5. The Browns have a record of 1-2-0 as a favorite. The Titans have a record of 6-4-0 as an underdog. The Titans are 4-4-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Browns were 5-3-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Tennessee Titans45.520.017.632%34%--
Cleveland Browns-5.525.524.768%66%--

Cincinnati Bengals vs Seattle Seahawks

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Seahawks to win the game. The projected score is Seahawks 29 and Bengals 19, and Seattle is winning 74% of simulations. The moneyline for the Seahawks is -446 which translates to 82 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is SEA -10. Bettors seem to be favoring the Seahawks as the Vegas line has moved from -7.5 to -9.5. The Seahawks have a record of 4-3-1 as a favorite. The Bengals have a record of 6-4-0 as an underdog. The Bengals are 6-2-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Seahawks were 5-2-1 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cincinnati Bengals43.517.019.122%26%--
Seattle Seahawks-9.526.529.178%74%--

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Chargers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Chargers to win the game, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is Chargers 25 and Colts 21, and Los Angeles is winning 59% of simulations. At -193 on the moneyline, the Chargers implied probability to win is 66 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Chargers based on how the moneyline is moving. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is LAC -4.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Chargers as the Vegas line has moved from -3 to -3.5. The Chargers have a record of 5-6-0 as a favorite. The Colts have a record of 4-5-0 as an underdog. The Colts are 6-4-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Chargers were 2-5-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Indianapolis Colts47.522.020.636%40%--
Los Angeles Chargers-3.525.525.064%59%--

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The odds favor the Buccaneers, and the sims are solidly on the Buccaneers as well. The projected score is Buccaneers 27 and 49ers 25, with Tampa Bay winning 54% of the time. The moneyline for the Buccaneers is -112 which translates to 53 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Tampa Bay won their lone matchup in recent seasons 54 to 18. The projection based point spread is TB -1.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -1. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Buccaneers are 1-3-0. As an underdog, the 49ers are 5-7-0. In their last match-up (TB won by 36) Tampa Bay covered the spread. The Buccaneers were -2 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Francisco 49ers49.524.225.349%46%18.0 (0 Wins)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-1.025.327.051%54%54.0 (1 Win)

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Cowboys to win the game. The projected score is Cowboys 26 and Giants 17, and Dallas is winning 69% of simulations. The Cowboys are -346 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 78 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Cowboys are up in this matchup recently going 2-0. In these games the Cowboys averaged 56 points per game and the Giants 48. The projection based point spread is DAL -8.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -7.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Cowboys are 3-3-2. As an underdog, the Giants are 7-6-0. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Cowboys have the ATS edge head to head going 2-0-0 vs the Giants. The average point spread in these games was Giants -2.2 but the Cowboys won by an average of 8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Giants45.519.017.426%30%48.0 (0 Wins)
Dallas Cowboys-7.526.526.074%69%56.0 (2 Wins)

Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals

The odds favor the Lions, and the sims are solidly on the Lions as well. The projected score is Lions 25 and Cardinals 20, and Detroit is winning 60% of simulations. At -136 on the moneyline, the Lions implied probability to win is 58 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In their last 2 matchups the Lions are 1-0. In these games, the Lions averaged 17 and the Cardinals 6 ppg. The projection based point spread is DET -5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Lions as the Vegas line has moved from +1.5 to 2.5. The Lions have a record of 3-2-0 as a favorite. The Cardinals have a record of 7-6-1 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Lions are 1-0-0 against the spread vs the Cardinals. The average point spread in these games was Lions -1.2 and they won by an average of 11 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Lions47.525.024.855%60%17.0 (1 Win)
Arizona Cardinals+2.522.519.845%39%6.0 (0 Wins)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Patriots to win the game. The projected score is Patriots 28 and Steelers 19, and New England is winning 70% of the sims. The moneyline for the Patriots is -263 which translates to 72 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Head-to-head, the Steelers are 1-0. In these games the Patriots averaged 20 points per game and the Steelers 17. The computer would set the spread at NE -9. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -6. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Patriots are 11-7-0. As an underdog, the Steelers are 5-0-0. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Steelers have the ATS edge head to head going 1-0-0 vs the Patriots. The Patriots were favored by -2.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Steelers5223.019.230%30%17.0 (1 Win)
New England Patriots-6.029.028.470%70%20.0 (0 Wins)

Monday, September 09, 2019

Houston Texans vs New Orleans Saints

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Saints to win the game. The projected score is Saints 30 and Texans 20, with New Orleans winning 69% of the time. The moneyline for the Saints is -310 which translates to 76 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is NO -9. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -7. The Saints have a record of 7-8-0 as a favorite. The Texans have a record of 2-1-1 as an underdog. The Texans are 3-3-2 ATS on the road since last season. The Saints were 4-6-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Texans53.523.220.327%31%--
New Orleans Saints-7.030.329.573%69%--

Denver Broncos vs Oakland Raiders

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds favor the Raiders. The projected score is Broncos 23 and Raiders 22, with Denver winning 50% of the latest sims. The Raiders are -129 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 56 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. They both have one win head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Raiders averaged 46 points per game and the Broncos 23. The projection based point spread is OAK -1. With more action on the Broncos, oddsmakers have moved the line from +2.5 to +1.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Raiders are 1-1-0. As an underdog, the Broncos are 4-3-0. The Raiders are 2-0-0 against the spread vs the Broncos. The average point spread in these games was Broncos -2.8 but the Raiders won by an average of 23.3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Denver Broncos43.521.023.246%50%22.7 (1 Win)
Oakland Raiders-1.522.523.554%50%46.0 (1 Win)