NFL Week 10 Picks: Browns Slight Favorites vs Buffalo Bills

Sunday, November 10, 2019

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Ravens to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Ravens 32 and Bengals 18, with Baltimore winning 77% of the latest sims. At -564 on the moneyline, the Ravens implied probability to win is 85 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Baltimore won their lone matchup in recent seasons 23 to 17. The computer would set the spread at BAL -14. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening CIN +10. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Ravens are 1-3-1. As an underdog, the Bengals are 3-3-0. In their last match-up (BAL won by 6) Cincinnati covered the spread. The Ravens were -10.5 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Baltimore Ravens44.527.231.982%77%23.0 (1 Win)
Cincinnati Bengals+10.017.318.118%22%17.0 (0 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

The odds favor the Bears, and the sims are solidly on the Bears as well. The projected score is Bears 22 and Lions 17, and Chicago is winning 60% of simulations. The moneyline for the Bears is -140 which translates to 58 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is CHI -4.5. With more action on the Lions, oddsmakers have moved the line from +3 to +2.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Bears are 1-5-0. As an underdog, the Lions are 4-2-0. The Lions are 2-2-0 ATS on the road this season. The Bears are 1-3-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Lions41.519.517.444%39%--
Chicago Bears-2.522.021.856%60%--

Buffalo Bills vs Cleveland Browns

The odds favor the Browns, and the sims are solidly on the Browns as well. The projected score is Browns 21 and Bills 19, and Cleveland is winning 55% of simulations. The moneyline for the Browns is -150 which translates to 60 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at CLE -2. Bettors seem to be favoring the Browns as the Vegas line has moved from -2.5 to -3. The Browns have a record of 1-3-0 as a favorite. The Bills have a record of 3-0-0 as an underdog. The Bills went 0-0-0 ATS on the road last season. The Browns are 0-3-0 ATS at home since last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Buffalo Bills4018.518.642%44%--
Cleveland Browns-3.021.520.658%55%--

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Chiefs over the Titans despite being on the road. The projected score is Chiefs 27 and Titans 20, with Kansas City being given a 66% chance of winning. At -272 on the moneyline, the Chiefs implied probability to win is 73 percent. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Chiefs to win. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is KC -7. Bettors seem to be favoring the Chiefs as the Vegas line has moved from +5.5 to 6. The Chiefs have a record of 4-3-0 as a favorite. The Titans have a record of 2-2-0 as an underdog. The Chiefs are 3-1-0 ATS on the road this season. The Titans are 1-2-1 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Kansas City Chiefs49.527.827.170%66%--
Tennessee Titans+6.021.720.030%34%--

Arizona Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is Buccaneers 26 and Cardinals 24, with Tampa Bay winning 54% of the time. The moneyline for the Buccaneers is -230 which translates to 70 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at TB -1.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Cardinals with the Vegas moving from +5.5 to +4.5. The Buccaneers have a record of 0-2-0 as a favorite. The Cardinals have a record of 6-2-0 as an underdog. The Cardinals are 3-1-0 ATS on the road this season. The Buccaneers are 0-2-0 ATS at home since last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Arizona Cardinals5223.824.433%46%--
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-4.528.226.167%54%--

New York Giants vs New York Jets

The odds favor the Giants, and the sims are solidly on the Giants as well. The projected score is Giants 22 and Jets 19, with the Jets winning 42% of the time. The moneyline for the Giants is -154 which translates to 61 percent (chance of winning). People are betting more heavily on the Giants based on how the moneyline is moving. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is NYG -3. More of the action seems to be on the Giants as the Vegas line has moved from +2.5 to 3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Giants are 1-1-0. As an underdog, the Jets are 2-4-0. The Giants are 2-2-0 ATS on the road this season. The Jets are 1-3-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Giants44.523.822.559%58%--
New York Jets+3.020.719.341%42%--

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

The Saints are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Saints 36 and Falcons 20, and New Orleans is winning 86% of simulations. The moneyline for the Saints is -777 which translates to 89 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at NO -16. More of the action seems to be on the Saints with the Vegas line moving from -13 to -13.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Saints are 2-1-0. As an underdog, the Falcons are 2-4-0. The Falcons are 0-4-0 ATS on the road this season. The Saints are 3-1-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Atlanta Falcons51.519.020.315%14%--
New Orleans Saints-13.532.536.385%86%--

Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Colts 32 and Dolphins 18, and Indianapolis is winning 81% of simulations. The moneyline for the Colts is -626 which translates to 86 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is IND -13.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Colts as the Vegas line has moved from -10.5 to -11. The Colts have a record of 2-2-0 as a favorite. The Dolphins have a record of 4-4-0 as an underdog. The Dolphins went 0-0-0 ATS on the road last season. The Colts are 2-2-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Miami Dolphins4416.518.017%18%--
Indianapolis Colts-11.027.531.583%81%--

Carolina Panthers vs Green Bay Packers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Packers to win the game. The projected score is Packers 28 and Panthers 23, and Green Bay is winning 60% of the sims. The Packers are -235 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 70 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is GB -5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Panthers with the Vegas moving from +6 to +5.5. The Packers have a record of 4-3-0 as a favorite. The Panthers have a record of 2-2-0 as an underdog. The Panthers are 3-1-0 ATS on the road this season. The Packers are 3-2-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Carolina Panthers4720.823.133%39%--
Green Bay Packers-5.526.228.067%60%--

Los Angeles Rams vs Pittsburgh Steelers

The odds and our simulations favor the Rams over the Steelers despite being on the road. The projected score is Rams 25 and Steelers 22, with Los Angeles winning 57% of the latest sims. The Rams are -199 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 67 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is LAR -3. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening PIT +3.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Rams are 5-2-0. As an underdog, the Steelers are 2-1-1. The Rams are 5-0-0 ATS on the road this season. The Steelers are 2-2-1 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Rams4423.824.664%57%--
Pittsburgh Steelers+3.520.221.536%43%--

Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys

The odds and our simulations favor the Cowboys over the Vikings, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is Cowboys 24 and Vikings 21, and Dallas is winning 58% of simulations. The Cowboys are -166 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 62 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is DAL -3.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Cowboys are 5-3-0. The Vikings are 2-3-0 ATS on the road this season. The Cowboys are 3-1-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Minnesota Vikings4822.520.640%41%--
Dallas Cowboys-3.025.524.360%58%--

Monday, November 11, 2019

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the 49ers to win the game. The projected score is 49ers 29 and Seahawks 19, and San Francisco is winning 70% of simulations. At -267 on the moneyline, the 49ers implied probability to win is 73 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is SF -9.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Seahawks with the Vegas moving from +6.5 to +6. The 49ers have a record of 2-3-0 as a favorite. The Seahawks have a record of 2-0-0 as an underdog. The Seahawks are 3-1-0 ATS on the road this season. The 49ers are 2-1-0 ATS at home since last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Seattle Seahawks4720.519.330%30%--
San Francisco 49ers-6.026.528.870%70%--