NFL Week 10 Picks: Rams Win, Seahawks Cover

Sunday, November 11, 2018

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Falcons to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Falcons 27 and Browns 22, with Atlanta winning 61% of the latest sims. The Falcons are -286 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 74 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Falcons based on how the moneyline is moving. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at ATL -5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Falcons as the Vegas line has moved from +2.5 to 6. The Falcons have a record of 9-11-0 as a favorite. The Browns have a record of 8-14-0 as an underdog. The Falcons are 4-9-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Browns are 3-2-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Atlanta Falcons50.528.227.470%61%--
Cleveland Browns+6.022.322.330%38%--

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New Orleans Saints vs Cincinnati Bengals

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Saints over the Bengals despite being on the road. The projected score is Saints 34 and Bengals 24, with New Orleans being given a 69% chance of winning. The Saints are -260 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 72 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Saints since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at NO -10. Bettors seem to be favoring the Saints as the Vegas line has moved from +3.5 to 5.5. The Saints have a record of 11-6-0 as a favorite. The Bengals have a record of 8-5-0 as an underdog. The Saints are 4-0-0 ATS on the road this season. The Bengals are 2-2-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New Orleans Saints5429.833.569%69%--
Cincinnati Bengals+5.524.223.631%31%--

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Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Bears to win the game. The projected score is Bears 27 and Lions 21, and Chicago is winning 63% of the sims. The Bears are -320 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 76 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Bears since the moneyline is moving that way. The Lions have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. In these games, the Lions averaged 20 and the Bears 17 ppg. The computer would set the spread at CHI -6. Bettors seem to be favoring the Bears as the Vegas line has moved from -3.5 to -6.5. The Bears have a record of 5-7-0 as a favorite. The Lions have a record of 6-6-0 as an underdog. The Bears have been better against the spread than straight up in previous matchups. The Bears are 2-1-1 against the spread vs the Lions. The average point spread in these games was Lions -4.8 and they won by an average of 3.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Lions4418.821.127%36%20.2 (3 Wins)
Chicago Bears-6.525.227.173%63%17.0 (1 Win)

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New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Patriots over the Titans despite being on the road. The projected score is Patriots 28 and Titans 18, with New England being given a 71% chance of winning. At -294 on the moneyline, the Patriots implied probability to win is 75 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Titans since the moneyline is moving that way. New England won their lone matchup in recent seasons 35 to 14. The projection based point spread is NE -9.5. More of the action seems to be on the Patriots as the Vegas line has moved from +6 to 6.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Patriots are 18-10-0. As an underdog, the Titans are 8-4-0. In their last match-up (NE won by 21) , New England covered the spread. The Patriots were -13.5 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New England Patriots46.526.528.071%71%35.0 (1 Win)
Tennessee Titans+6.520.018.529%28%14.0 (0 Wins)

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Washington Redskins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds favor the Buccaneers. The projected score is Buccaneers 23 and Redskins 22, and Tampa Bay is winning 51% of simulations. At -154 on the moneyline, the Buccaneers implied proability to win is 61 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Buccaneers based on how the moneyline is moving. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at TB -1. More of the action seems to be on the Buccaneers with the Vegas line moving from -1 to -3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Buccaneers are 4-7-0. As an underdog, the Redskins are 8-7-0. The Redskins are 5-6-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Buccaneers are 5-6-0 ATS at home since last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Redskins5124.022.841%49%--
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-3.027.023.359%51%--

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Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

The Jets are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Jets 28 and Bills 18, and New York is winning 75% of simulations. The moneyline for the Jets is -312 which translates to 76 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Jets are up in this matchup recently going 3-1. In these games the Jets averaged 28 points per game and the Bills 21. The computer would set the spread at NYJ -10.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -7. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Jets are 4-3-0. As an underdog, the Bills are 8-11-0. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Jets have the ATS edge head to head going 3-1-0 vs the Bills. The average point spread in these games was Bills -3.9 but the Jets won by an average of 7.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Buffalo Bills36.514.817.828%25%20.8 (1 Win)
New York Jets-7.021.728.372%75%28.2 (3 Wins)

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Arizona Cardinals vs Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Chiefs 33 and Cardinals 18, and Kansas City is winning 84% of simulations. The moneyline for the Chiefs is -1667 which translates to 94 percent (chance of winning). Bettors seem to be favoring the Chiefs since the moneyline is moving that way. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is KC -15.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Chiefs as the Vegas line has moved from -14 to -16.5. The Chiefs have a record of 12-7-0 as a favorite. The Cardinals have a record of 8-8-2 as an underdog. The Cardinals are 3-7-1 ATS on the road since last season. The Chiefs are 3-1-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Arizona Cardinals49.516.518.09%16%--
Kansas City Chiefs-16.533.033.491%84%--

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts

The odds favor the Colts, and the sims are solidly on the Colts as well. The projected score is Colts 27 and Jaguars 23, with Indianapolis winning 60% of the time. The Colts are -141 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 59 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Jaguars have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. In these games, the Jaguars averaged 27 and the Colts 15 ppg. The computer would set the spread at IND -4.5. More of the action seems to be on the Colts with the Vegas line moving from -1 to -3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Colts are 7-4-0. As an underdog, the Jaguars are 6-4-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Jaguars are 4-0-0 against the spread vs the Colts. The average point spread in these games was Jaguars -1.6 and they won by an average of 11.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Jacksonville Jaguars46.521.822.844%40%26.8 (3 Wins)
Indianapolis Colts-3.024.727.156%60%15.2 (1 Win)

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Los Angeles Chargers vs Oakland Raiders

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Chargers over the Raiders despite being on the road. The projected score is Chargers 34 and Raiders 16, and Los Angeles is winning 83% of simulations. At -526 on the moneyline, the Chargers implied probability to win is 84 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Chargers since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. In their last 5 matchups the Chargers are 3-2. In these games, the Chargers averaged 24 and the Raiders 18 ppg. The computer would set the spread at LAC -17.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Chargers as the Vegas line has moved from +7.5 to 10. The Chargers have a record of 6-7-1 as a favorite. The Raiders have a record of 4-10-1 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Chargers are 4-1-0 against the spread vs the Raiders. The average point spread in these games was Chargers -0.6 and they won by an average of 6.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Chargers5030.033.880%83%24.0 (3 Wins)
Oakland Raiders+10.020.016.420%17%17.8 (2 Wins)

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Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Packers over the Dolphins. The projected score is Packers 32 and Dolphins 19, and Green Bay is winning 79% of simulations. The moneyline for the Packers is -500 which translates to 83 percent (chance of winning). Bettors seem to be favoring the Packers since the moneyline is moving that way. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is GB -12.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Packers as the Vegas line has moved from -7 to -10. The Packers have a record of 5-5-0 as a favorite. The Dolphins have a record of 6-12-1 as an underdog. The Dolphins are 1-3-0 ATS on the road this season. The Packers are 2-2-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Miami Dolphins47.518.819.220%20%--
Green Bay Packers-10.028.731.880%79%--

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Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams

The odds and our simulations favor the Rams over the Seahawks, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is Rams 27 and Seahawks 23, and Los Angeles is winning 59% of the sims. The moneyline for the Rams is -500 which translates to 83 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Head-to-head, the Rams are 3-2. In these games the Rams averaged 19 points per game and the Seahawks 16. The computer would set the spread at LAR -4. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -9.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Rams are 10-9-1. As an underdog, the Seahawks are 5-5-1. The Seahawks have been better against the spread than straight up vs the Rams. The Seahawks have the ATS edge head to head going 3-2-0 vs the Rams. The average point spread in these games was Seahawks -2.5 but the Rams won by an average of 3.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Seattle Seahawks5020.222.620%40%16.2 (2 Wins)
Los Angeles Rams-9.529.826.880%59%19.4 (3 Wins)

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Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles

The odds and our simulations favor the Eagles over the Cowboys. The projected score is Eagles 25 and Cowboys 20, and Philadelphia is winning 62% of simulations. The moneyline for the Eagles is -323 which translates to 76 percent (chance of winning). People are betting more heavily on the Eagles based on how the moneyline is moving. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Eagles averaged 22 points per game and the Cowboys 14. The projection based point spread is PHI -5.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Eagles as the Vegas line has moved from -5.5 to -7. The Eagles have a record of 10-9-0 as a favorite. The Cowboys have a record of 7-6-1 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. Both have covered 2 times head-to-head. The Eagles were favored by an average of -0.9 points in these games and they won by an average of 7.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Dallas Cowboys4318.019.527%37%14.2 (2 Wins)
Philadelphia Eagles-7.025.024.873%62%21.8 (2 Wins)

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Monday, November 12, 2018

New York Giants vs San Francisco 49ers

The odds and our simulations favor the 49ers over the Giants, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is 49ers 26 and Giants 23, and San Francisco is winning 57% of simulations. The 49ers are -185 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 65 percent. People are betting more heavily on the 49ers based on how the moneyline is moving. San Francisco won their lone matchup in recent seasons 31 to 21. The projection based point spread is SF -3. Bettors seem to be favoring the 49ers as the Vegas line has moved from -1.5 to -3.5. The 49ers have a record of 1-7-0 as a favorite. The Giants have a record of 10-11-0 as an underdog. In their last match-up (SF won by 10) San Francisco covered the spread. The Giants were -3 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Giants4420.222.938%43%21.0 (0 Wins)
San Francisco 49ers-3.523.826.162%57%31.0 (1 Win)

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