NFL Week 11 Picks: Will Lamar Jackson Top DeShaun Watson Again?

Thursday, November 14, 2019

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Steelers are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is Steelers 19 and Browns 18, and Pittsburgh is winning 51% of simulations. At -152 on the moneyline, the Browns implied probability to win is 60 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Steelers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 3-0 record with one tie. In these games, the Steelers averaged 34 and the Browns 27 ppg. The computer would set the spread at PIT -1. Bettors seem to be favoring the Browns as the Vegas line has moved from -2.5 to -3. The Browns have a record of 2-6-1 as a favorite. The Steelers have a record of 8-1-1 as an underdog. The Browns have been better against the spread than straight up in previous matchups. The Browns have the ATS edge head to head going 3-1-0 vs the Steelers. The average point spread in these games was Steelers -9 and they won by an average of 7.3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Steelers40.518.819.442%51%34.3 (3 Wins)
Cleveland Browns-3.021.718.858%49%27.0 (0 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Sunday, November 17, 2019

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts

The odds favor the Colts, and the sims are solidly on the Colts as well. The projected score is Colts 23 and Jaguars 20, and Indianapolis is winning 56% of simulations. The moneyline for the Colts is -147 which translates to 60 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Jaguars are up in this matchup recently going 3-1. In these games, the Jaguars averaged 22 and the Colts 10 ppg. The computer would set the spread at IND -3.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Jaguars with the Vegas moving from +3.5 to +3. The Colts have a record of 7-6-1 as a favorite. The Jaguars have a record of 6-6-2 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Jaguars have the ATS edge head to head going 3-0-1 vs the Colts. The average point spread in these games was Jaguars -1.5 and they won by an average of 12.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Jacksonville Jaguars43.520.219.643%43%22.2 (3 Wins)
Indianapolis Colts-3.023.322.957%56%9.8 (1 Win)

Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Cowboys to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Cowboys 24 and Lions 21, with Dallas winning 58% of the latest sims. At -217 on the moneyline, the Cowboys implied probability to win is 68 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Cowboys based on how the moneyline is moving. Dallas won their lone matchup in recent seasons 26 to 24. The computer would set the spread at DAL -3.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening DET +3.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Cowboys are 8-7-2. As an underdog, the Lions are 10-8-0. In their last match-up (DAL won by 2) Detroit covered the spread. The Cowboys were -2.5 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Dallas Cowboys48.526.024.465%58%26.0 (1 Win)
Detroit Lions+3.522.520.735%41%24.0 (0 Wins)

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Panthers 32 and Falcons 23, with Carolina winning 69% of the time. At -249 on the moneyline, the Panthers implied probability to win is 71 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Falcons have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. In these games, the Falcons averaged 24 and the Panthers 16 ppg. The projection based point spread is CAR -9.5. With more action on the Falcons, oddsmakers have moved the line from +6 to +5.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Panthers are 6-7-0. As an underdog, the Falcons are 4-7-0. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Falcons are 3-1-0 against the spread vs the Panthers. The average point spread in these games was Falcons -4 and they won by an average of 7.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Atlanta Falcons49.522.022.631%31%23.5 (3 Wins)
Carolina Panthers-5.527.532.169%69%16.0 (1 Win)

Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Ravens 27 and Texans 21, with Baltimore winning 63% of the time. At -210 on the moneyline, the Ravens implied probability to win is 68 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Baltimore won their lone matchup in recent seasons 23 to 16. The computer would set the spread at BAL -6.5. With more action on the Texans, oddsmakers have moved the line from +4.5 to +4. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Ravens are 6-12-1. As an underdog, the Texans are 11-8-1. In their last match-up (BAL won by 7) , Houston covered the spread. The Ravens were -7.5 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Texans49.522.821.035%36%16.0 (0 Wins)
Baltimore Ravens-4.026.727.365%63%23.0 (1 Win)

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Bills to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Bills 23 and Dolphins 16, and Buffalo is winning 67% of simulations. The moneyline for the Bills is -260 which translates to 72 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Bills going 4-1. In these games, the Bills averaged 27 and the Dolphins 18 ppg. The computer would set the spread at BUF -7. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening MIA +6. The Bills have a record of 8-6-1 as a favorite. The Dolphins have a record of 9-11-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Bills are 3-2-0 against the spread vs the Dolphins. The average point spread in these games was Bills -5 and they won by an average of 9 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Buffalo Bills40.523.222.869%67%27.2 (4 Wins)
Miami Dolphins+6.017.315.731%32%18.2 (1 Win)

New York Jets vs Washington Redskins

The odds favor the Redskins, and the sims are solidly on the Redskins as well. The projected score is Redskins 19 and Jets 17, with Washington winning 54% of the time. The moneyline for the Redskins is -123 which translates to 55 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at WAS -2. With more action on the Jets, oddsmakers have moved the line from +1.5 to +1. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Redskins are 4-6-0. As an underdog, the Jets are 7-12-1. The Jets are 1-3-0 ATS on the road this season. The Redskins are 1-3-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Jets38.518.817.047%45%--
Washington Redskins-1.019.719.153%54%--

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Saints over the Buccaneers despite being on the road. The projected score is Saints 34 and Buccaneers 21, and New Orleans is winning 76% of simulations. The moneyline for the Saints is -248 which translates to 71 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In their last 5 matchups the Saints are 3-2. In these games, the Saints averaged 31 and the Buccaneers 25 ppg. The computer would set the spread at NO -13. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening TB +5.5. The Saints have a record of 9-10-0 as a favorite. The Buccaneers have a record of 8-8-2 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Saints are 3-2-0 against the spread vs the Buccaneers. The average point spread in these games was Saints -7.1 and they won by an average of 5.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New Orleans Saints50.528.033.668%76%30.6 (3 Wins)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+5.522.520.632%24%25.4 (2 Wins)

Denver Broncos vs Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Vikings 26 and Broncos 16, with Minnesota winning 73% of the time. At -587 on the moneyline, the Vikings implied probability to win is 85 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at MIN -10. Bettors seem to be favoring the Vikings as the Vegas line has moved from -10 to -10.5. The Vikings have a record of 11-5-1 as a favorite. The Broncos have a record of 8-5-0 as an underdog. The Broncos are 2-2-0 ATS on the road this season. The Vikings are 3-1-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Denver Broncos40.515.016.118%26%--
Minnesota Vikings-10.525.526.282%73%--

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the 49ers over the Cardinals. The projected score is 49ers 28 and Cardinals 18, and San Francisco is winning 75% of the sims. At -630 on the moneyline, the 49ers implied probability to win is 86 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Cardinals since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. The Cardinals have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record. In these games, the Cardinals averaged 22 and the 49ers 17 ppg. The computer would set the spread at SF -10. With more action on the Cardinals, oddsmakers have moved the line from +13.5 to +11.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the 49ers are 2-8-0. As an underdog, the Cardinals are 14-8-1. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Cardinals have the ATS edge head to head going 4-1-0 vs the 49ers. The 49ers were favored by an average of -1.3 points in these games but the Cardinals won by an average of 4.6 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Arizona Cardinals4516.818.417%24%21.8 (4 Wins)
San Francisco 49ers-11.528.228.483%75%17.2 (1 Win)

New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles

The Patriots are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Patriots 24 and Eagles 17, and New England is winning 64% of simulations. The Patriots are -188 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 65 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. Philadelphia won their lone matchup in recent seasons 41 to 33. The computer would set the spread at NE -6.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening PHI +3.5. The Patriots have a record of 17-10-0 as a favorite. The Eagles have a record of 10-6-0 as an underdog. In their last match-up (PHI won by 8) Philadelphia covered the spread. The Patriots were -4.5 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New England Patriots44.524.023.663%64%33.0 (0 Wins)
Philadelphia Eagles+3.520.517.237%35%41.0 (1 Win)

Cincinnati Bengals vs Oakland Raiders

The Raiders are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Raiders 30 and Bengals 20, with Oakland winning 73% of the time. At -538 on the moneyline, the Raiders implied probability to win is 84 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Cincinnati won their lone matchup in recent seasons 30 to 16. The projection based point spread is OAK -10. Bettors seem to be favoring the Raiders as the Vegas line has moved from -10 to -10.5. The Raiders have a record of 4-5-1 as a favorite. The Bengals have a record of 9-8-0 as an underdog. In their last match-up (CIN won by 14) , Cincinnati covered the spread. The Bengals were -3 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cincinnati Bengals48.519.019.919%26%30.0 (1 Win)
Oakland Raiders-10.529.529.981%73%16.0 (0 Wins)

Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Rams 22 and Bears 17, and Los Angeles is winning 63% of the sims. The Rams are -303 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 75 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Chicago won their lone matchup in recent seasons 15 to 6. The projection based point spread is LAR -5.5. With more action on the Bears, oddsmakers have moved the line from +7 to +6.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Rams are 13-10-2. As an underdog, the Bears are 9-7-2. In their last match-up (CHI won by 9) , Chicago covered the spread. The Rams were -3 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Chicago Bears40.517.016.828%36%15.0 (1 Win)
Los Angeles Rams-6.523.522.272%63%6.0 (0 Wins)

Monday, November 18, 2019

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

The Chiefs are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Chiefs 27 and Chargers 23, with Kansas City winning 59% of the latest sims. At -199 on the moneyline, the Chiefs implied probability to win is 67 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Chiefs have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. In these games, the Chiefs averaged 30 and the Chargers 20 ppg. The computer would set the spread at KC -4. Bettors seem to be favoring the Chargers with the Vegas moving from +4 to +3.5. The Chiefs have a record of 11-10-0 as a favorite. The Chargers have a record of 10-4-2 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Chiefs are 3-1-0 against the spread vs the Chargers. The average point spread in these games was Chiefs -0.5 and they won by an average of 10 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Kansas City Chiefs5227.827.464%59%30.0 (3 Wins)
Los Angeles Chargers+3.524.223.436%40%20.0 (1 Win)