NFL Week 12 Picks: Look for Lamar and Ravens to Pull Away From Rams

Sunday, November 24, 2019

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals

The Steelers are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Steelers 22 and Bengals 16, with Pittsburgh being given a 66% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Steelers is -294 which translates to 75 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Steelers going 5-0. In these games, the Steelers averaged 25 and the Bengals 14 ppg. The computer would set the spread at PIT -6.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening CIN +6.5. The Steelers have a record of 5-9-1 as a favorite. The Bengals have a record of 10-8-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Steelers are 3-2-0 against the spread vs the Bengals. The average point spread in these games was Steelers -4.9 and they won by an average of 10.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Steelers3822.222.372%66%24.6 (5 Wins)
Cincinnati Bengals+6.515.815.828%33%14.2 (0 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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New York Giants vs Chicago Bears

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Bears to win the game. The projected score is Bears 25 and Giants 15, with Chicago winning 73% of the time. The moneyline for the Bears is -275 which translates to 73 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. New York won their lone matchup in recent seasons 30 to 27. The computer would set the spread at CHI -10. With more action on the Giants, oddsmakers have moved the line from +6.5 to +6. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Bears are 11-9-0. As an underdog, the Giants are 9-11-0. In their last match-up (NYG won by 3) , New York covered the spread. The Bears were -3.5 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Giants40.517.214.830%27%30.0 (1 Win)
Chicago Bears-6.023.324.870%73%27.0 (0 Wins)

Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Bills to win the game. The projected score is Bills 22 and Broncos 17, and Buffalo is winning 62% of the sims. The moneyline for the Bills is -210 which translates to 68 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Buffalo won their lone matchup in recent seasons 26 to 16. The projection based point spread is BUF -5. With more action on the Broncos, oddsmakers have moved the line from +5 to +4. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Bills are 9-6-1. As an underdog, the Broncos are 9-5-0. In their last match-up (BUF won by 10) Buffalo covered the spread. The Broncos were -3.5 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Denver Broncos3716.517.035%37%16.0 (0 Wins)
Buffalo Bills-4.020.522.165%62%26.0 (1 Win)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Falcons to win the game. The projected score is Falcons 31 and Buccaneers 26, with Atlanta winning 61% of the time. The Falcons are -192 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 66 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Falcons going 4-0. In these games the Falcons averaged 32 points per game and the Buccaneers 26. The computer would set the spread at ATL -5.5. With more action on the Buccaneers, oddsmakers have moved the line from +4 to +3.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Falcons are 4-9-0. As an underdog, the Buccaneers are 8-9-2. They both covered the spread 2 times in their last few matchups. The Falcons were favored by an average of -5.6 points in these games and they won by an average of 6 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Tampa Bay Buccaneers51.524.025.737%38%25.5 (0 Wins)
Atlanta Falcons-3.527.531.463%61%31.5 (4 Wins)

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Browns over the Dolphins. The projected score is Browns 30 and Dolphins 18, and Cleveland is winning 78% of the sims. The Browns are -565 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 85 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is CLE -12. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -10.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Browns are 3-6-1. As an underdog, the Dolphins are 5-5-0. The Dolphins are 3-1-0 ATS on the road this season. The Browns are 1-3-1 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Miami Dolphins4617.818.318%21%--
Cleveland Browns-10.528.230.482%78%--

Detroit Lions vs Washington Redskins

The odds and our simulations favor the Lions over the Redskins despite being on the road. The projected score is Lions 21 and Redskins 16, with Detroit winning 63% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the Lions is -197 which translates to 66 percent (chance of winning). Bettors seem to be favoring the Lions since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is DET -5.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening WAS +3.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Lions are 7-6-1. As an underdog, the Redskins are 11-10-0. The Lions are 2-3-0 ATS on the road this season. The Redskins are 1-4-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Lions4021.821.064%63%--
Washington Redskins+3.518.215.736%36%--

Oakland Raiders vs New York Jets

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Raiders to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Raiders 25 and Jets 20, and Oakland is winning 62% of simulations. The moneyline for the Raiders is -176 which translates to 64 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Oakland won their lone matchup in recent seasons 45 to 20. The computer would set the spread at OAK -5. With more action on the Jets side, the line has adjusted from +3.5 to +3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Raiders are 4-6-1. As an underdog, the Jets are 8-12-1. In their last match-up (OAK won by 25) , Oakland covered the spread. The Raiders were -13.5 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Oakland Raiders46.524.824.762%62%45.0 (1 Win)
New York Jets+3.021.719.538%38%20.0 (0 Wins)

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints

The Saints are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Saints 33 and Panthers 21, with New Orleans winning 79% of the time. At -488 on the moneyline, the Saints implied probability to win is 83 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Saints have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record. In these games the Saints averaged 24 points per game and the Panthers 20. The projection based point spread is NO -12. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -9.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Saints are 10-10-0. As an underdog, the Panthers are 6-6-0. While they may be 1-4 straight up vs the Saints, the Panthers have been better against the spread. The Panthers have the ATS edge head to head going 3-2-0 vs the Saints. The Saints were favored by an average of -4.2 points in these games and they won by an average of 4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Carolina Panthers4618.220.720%21%20.4 (1 Win)
New Orleans Saints-9.527.832.980%79%24.4 (4 Wins)

Seattle Seahawks vs Philadelphia Eagles

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds favor the Eagles. The projected score is Eagles 24 and Seahawks 23, and Philadelphia is winning 52% of the sims. At -117 on the moneyline, the Eagles implied probability to win is 54 percent. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Seahawks to win. Seattle won their lone matchup in recent seasons 24 to 10. The projection based point spread is PHI -1. Bettors seem to be favoring the Seahawks with the Vegas moving from +2.5 to +1. The Eagles have a record of 6-10-1 as a favorite. The Seahawks have a record of 7-1-2 as an underdog. In their last match-up (SEA won by 14) , Seattle covered the spread. The Eagles were -3.5 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Seattle Seahawks4723.023.748%48%24.0 (1 Win)
Philadelphia Eagles-1.024.024.452%52%10.0 (0 Wins)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Titans to win the game, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is Titans 19 and Jaguars 16, and Tennessee is winning 58% of the sims. At -193 on the moneyline, the Titans implied probability to win is 66 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Titans based on how the moneyline is moving. The Titans have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record. In these games the Titans averaged 20 points per game and the Jaguars 12. The projection based point spread is TEN -3.5. More of the action seems to be on the Titans with the Vegas line moving from -3 to -3.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Titans are 3-6-1. As an underdog, the Jaguars are 6-7-2. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Titans have the ATS edge head to head going 4-1-0 vs the Jaguars. The Titans were favored by an average of -0.1 points in these games and they won by an average of 7.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Jacksonville Jaguars41.519.015.836%41%12.2 (1 Win)
Tennessee Titans-3.522.519.264%58%19.6 (4 Wins)

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Patriots over the Cowboys. The projected score is Patriots 25 and Cowboys 16, and New England is winning 69% of the sims. At -254 on the moneyline, the Patriots implied probability to win is 72 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is NE -8.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Cowboys with the Vegas moving from +6.5 to +5.5. The Patriots have a record of 7-3-0 as a favorite. The Cowboys have a record of 6-4-0 as an underdog. The Cowboys are 3-2-0 ATS on the road this season. The Patriots are 3-1-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Dallas Cowboys44.519.516.331%30%--
New England Patriots-5.525.024.869%69%--

Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the 49ers to win the game. The projected score is 49ers 26 and Packers 20, and San Francisco is winning 64% of simulations. The moneyline for the 49ers is -173 which translates to 63 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Green Bay won their lone matchup in recent seasons 33 to 30. The projection based point spread is SF -6.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -3. The 49ers have a record of 2-8-1 as a favorite. The Packers have a record of 7-11-1 as an underdog. In their last match-up (GB won by 3) San Francisco covered the spread. The Packers were -9 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Green Bay Packers47.522.219.639%36%33.0 (1 Win)
San Francisco 49ers-3.025.326.161%64%30.0 (0 Wins)

Monday, November 25, 2019

Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Rams

The odds and our simulations favor the Ravens over the Rams despite being on the road. The projected score is Ravens 25 and Rams 22, with Baltimore winning 59% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the Ravens is -170 which translates to 63 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is BAL -4. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening LAR +3. The Ravens have a record of 7-12-1 as a favorite. The Rams have a record of 5-4-0 as an underdog. The Ravens are 3-1-1 ATS on the road this season. The Rams are 2-2-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Baltimore Ravens46.524.825.461%59%--
Los Angeles Rams+3.021.721.639%41%--