NFL Week 14 Picks: Lean on Bears ATS at Home vs Struggling Cowboys

Thursday, December 05, 2019

Dallas Cowboys vs Chicago Bears

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Bears are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is Bears 20 and Cowboys 18, and Chicago is winning 53% of the sims. The moneyline for the Cowboys is -162 which translates to 62 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at CHI -1.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening CHI +3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Cowboys are 6-5-0. As an underdog, the Bears are 9-8-2. The Cowboys are 4-2-0 ATS on the road this season. The Bears are 2-4-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Dallas Cowboys4323.018.260%46%--
Chicago Bears+3.020.019.740%53%--

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Sunday, December 08, 2019

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds favor the Falcons. The projected score is Falcons 28 and Panthers 27, with Atlanta winning 53% of the time. The moneyline for the Falcons is -163 which translates to 62 percent (chance of winning). Bettors seem to be favoring the Falcons since the moneyline is moving that way. The Falcons have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record. In these games the Falcons averaged 25 points per game and the Panthers 13. The projection based point spread is ATL -1.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Falcons as the Vegas line has moved from -2 to -3. The Falcons have a record of 4-10-0 as a favorite. The Panthers have a record of 7-6-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Falcons have the ATS edge head to head going 4-1-0 vs the Panthers. The Falcons were favored by an average of -2.5 points in these games and they won by an average of 11.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Carolina Panthers4722.026.640%47%13.4 (1 Win)
Atlanta Falcons-3.025.028.360%53%24.6 (4 Wins)

Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds favor the Buccaneers. The projected score is Buccaneers 26 and Colts 24, and Tampa Bay is winning 53% of the sims. The moneyline for the Buccaneers is -162 which translates to 62 percent (chance of winning). The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at TB -2. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -3. The Buccaneers have a record of 5-9-0 as a favorite. The Colts have a record of 7-7-1 as an underdog. The Colts are 3-1-1 ATS on the road this season. The Buccaneers are 0-4-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Indianapolis Colts4722.024.140%46%--
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-3.025.026.060%53%--

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Jets to win the game. The projected score is Jets 26 and Dolphins 19, and New York is winning 65% of simulations. At -244 on the moneyline, the Jets implied probability to win is 71 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Dolphins have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record. In these games, the Dolphins averaged 19 and the Jets 17 ppg. The computer would set the spread at NYJ -7. With more action on the Dolphins, oddsmakers have moved the line from +6 to +5.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Jets are 2-6-0. As an underdog, the Dolphins are 6-6-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Dolphins have the ATS edge head to head going 3-1-1 vs the Jets. The average point spread in these games was Dolphins -1 and they won by an average of 2.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Miami Dolphins45.520.018.732%35%19.2 (4 Wins)
New York Jets-5.525.525.768%65%16.8 (1 Win)

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints

The odds favor the Saints, and the sims are solidly on the Saints as well. The projected score is Saints 25 and 49ers 21, and New Orleans is winning 60% of the sims. The moneyline for the Saints is -142 which translates to 59 percent (chance of winning). People are betting more heavily on the 49ers based on how the moneyline is moving. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is NO -4.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the 49ers with the Vegas moving from +3.5 to +2.5. The Saints have a record of 11-11-0 as a favorite. The 49ers have a record of 9-7-0 as an underdog. The 49ers are 4-2-0 ATS on the road this season. The Saints are 3-3-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Francisco 49ers44.521.020.944%40%--
New Orleans Saints-2.523.525.356%60%--

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Vikings 28 and Lions 18, and Minnesota is winning 71% of the sims. The moneyline for the Vikings is -795 which translates to 89 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Vikings going 4-1. In these games the Vikings averaged 26 points per game and the Lions 17. The projection based point spread is MIN -10. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -13. The Vikings have a record of 11-6-1 as a favorite. The Lions have a record of 11-9-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Vikings are 4-1-0 against the spread vs the Lions. The Vikings were favored by an average of -3.7 points in these games and they won by an average of 9 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Lions4315.018.215%28%17.0 (1 Win)
Minnesota Vikings-13.028.028.185%71%26.0 (4 Wins)

Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans

The Texans are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Texans 24 and Broncos 17, and Houston is winning 66% of simulations. The Texans are -450 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 82 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Houston won their lone matchup in recent seasons 19 to 17. The projection based point spread is HOU -7. More of the action seems to be on the Texans with the Vegas line moving from -8 to -9. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Texans are 6-11-1. As an underdog, the Broncos are 10-6-0. In their last match-up (HOU won by 2) Houston covered the spread. The Broncos were -1 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Denver Broncos42.516.816.722%33%17.0 (0 Wins)
Houston Texans-9.025.723.578%66%19.0 (1 Win)

Washington Redskins vs Green Bay Packers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Packers to win the game. The projected score is Packers 28 and Redskins 17, and Green Bay is winning 76% of simulations. The moneyline for the Packers is -804 which translates to 89 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. Washington won their lone matchup in recent seasons 31 to 17. The projection based point spread is GB -10.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Redskins with the Vegas moving from +13.5 to +12.5. The Packers have a record of 10-8-0 as a favorite. The Redskins have a record of 5-5-0 as an underdog. In their last match-up (WAS won by 14) , Washington covered the spread. The Packers were -2.5 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Redskins41.514.516.915%23%31.0 (1 Win)
Green Bay Packers-12.527.027.685%76%17.0 (0 Wins)

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Ravens to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Ravens 26 and Bills 18, with Baltimore being given a 69% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Ravens is -255 which translates to 72 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Baltimore won their lone matchup in recent seasons 47 to 3. The computer would set the spread at BAL -8. Bettors seem to be favoring the Bills with the Vegas moving from +6.5 to +5.5. The Ravens have a record of 8-13-1 as a favorite. The Bills have a record of 10-7-1 as an underdog. In their last match-up (BAL won by 44) , Baltimore covered the spread. The Ravens were -7.5 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Baltimore Ravens43.524.526.169%69%47.0 (1 Win)
Buffalo Bills+5.519.018.131%30%3.0 (0 Wins)

Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Browns over the Bengals. The projected score is Browns 28 and Bengals 18, and Cleveland is winning 72% of the sims. At -358 on the moneyline, the Browns implied probability to win is 78 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Bengals since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Bengals averaged 25 and the Browns 21 ppg. The computer would set the spread at CLE -10. Bettors seem to be favoring the Bengals with the Vegas moving from +8.5 to +7.5. The Browns have a record of 4-6-1 as a favorite. The Bengals have a record of 5-4-1 as an underdog. The Bengals have the ATS edge head to head going 3-1-0 vs the Browns. The average point spread in these games was Bengals -0.2 and they won by an average of 3.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cincinnati Bengals41.517.017.725%27%24.8 (2 Wins)
Cleveland Browns-7.524.527.675%72%21.0 (2 Wins)

Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

The Chargers are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Chargers 24 and Jaguars 18, and Los Angeles is winning 61% of simulations. The Chargers are -174 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 64 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Chargers based on how the moneyline is moving. Jacksonville won their lone matchup in recent seasons 20 to 17. The computer would set the spread at LAC -5. More of the action seems to be on the Chargers as the Vegas line has moved from +2.5 to 3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Chargers are 6-12-1. As an underdog, the Jaguars are 6-9-2. In their last match-up (JAC won by 3) , Los Angeles covered the spread. The Jaguars were -5 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Chargers4323.023.561%61%17.0 (0 Wins)
Jacksonville Jaguars+3.020.018.339%38%20.0 (1 Win)

Tennessee Titans vs Oakland Raiders

The odds favor the Titans, and the sims are solidly on the Titans as well. The projected score is Titans 23 and Raiders 19, with Tennessee being given a 58% chance of winning. At -144 on the moneyline, the Titans implied probability to win is 59 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Oakland won their lone matchup in recent seasons 26 to 16. The computer would set the spread at TEN -3.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Raiders with the Vegas moving from +3 to +2.5. The Titans have a record of 5-6-1 as a favorite. The Raiders have a record of 10-13-0 as an underdog. In their last match-up (OAK won by 10) Oakland covered the spread. The Titans were -2.5 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Tennessee Titans47.525.022.657%58%16.0 (0 Wins)
Oakland Raiders+2.522.519.043%41%26.0 (1 Win)

Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots

The Patriots are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is Patriots 25 and Chiefs 22, and New England is winning 56% of the sims. At -170 on the moneyline, the Patriots implied probability to win is 63 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Head-to-head, the Patriots are 2-1. In these games, the Chiefs averaged 38 and the Patriots 36 ppg. The computer would set the spread at NE -3. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Patriots are 7-5-0. As an underdog, the Chiefs are 7-2-1. While they may be 1-2 straight up vs the Patriots, the Chiefs have been better against the spread. The Chiefs have the ATS edge head to head going 2-1-0 vs the Patriots. The Patriots were favored by an average of -2.8 points in these games but the Chiefs won by an average of 2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Kansas City Chiefs48.522.821.939%43%37.7 (1 Win)
New England Patriots-3.025.724.761%56%35.7 (2 Wins)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Arizona Cardinals

The odds favor the Steelers, and the sims are solidly on the Steelers as well. The projected score is Steelers 20 and Cardinals 17, with Pittsburgh winning 56% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the Steelers is -147 which translates to 60 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at PIT -2.5. More of the action seems to be on the Steelers as the Vegas line has moved from +1.5 to 2.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Steelers are 5-9-2. As an underdog, the Cardinals are 7-3-1. The Steelers are 2-2-1 ATS on the road this season. The Cardinals are 3-3-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Steelers43.523.020.057%56%--
Arizona Cardinals+2.520.517.443%43%--

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Rams are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Rams 24 and Seahawks 22, and Los Angeles is winning 54% of the sims. The moneylines for the game are Seahawks -108 and Rams -112. These lines, if you adjust for the juice, translates to 50% to 50%. Bettors seem to be favoring the Rams since the moneyline is moving that way. Head-to-head, the Rams are 3-2. In these games the Rams averaged 30 points per game and the Seahawks 23. The projection based point spread is LAR -2. The Seahawks have been better against the spread than straight up vs the Rams. The Seahawks have the ATS edge head to head going 3-2-0 vs the Rams. The Rams were favored by an average of -3.3 points in these games and they won by an average of 7 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Seattle Seahawks4723.522.050%45%23.0 (2 Wins)
Los Angeles RamsPK23.524.050%54%30.0 (3 Wins)

Monday, December 09, 2019

New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Eagles 30 and Giants 20, with Philadelphia winning 73% of the time. The moneyline for the Eagles is -450 which translates to 82 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Eagles have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-0 record. In these games the Eagles averaged 30 points per game and the Giants 22. The projection based point spread is PHI -10. More of the action seems to be on the Eagles with the Vegas line moving from -8.5 to -9.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Eagles are 6-11-1. As an underdog, the Giants are 10-12-0. While they may be 0-4 straight up vs the Eagles, the Giants have been better against the spread. The Giants have the ATS edge head to head going 3-1-0 vs the Eagles. The Eagles were favored by an average of -4.6 points in these games and they won by an average of 8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Giants4618.219.822%27%22.0 (0 Wins)
Philadelphia Eagles-9.527.829.878%73%30.0 (4 Wins)