NFL Week 2 Picks: Computer Likes Philadelphia Eagles ATS vs Atlanta Falcons

Thursday, September 12, 2019

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Panthers to win the game. The projected score is Panthers 33 and Buccaneers 23, with Carolina winning 70% of the time. The moneyline for the Panthers is -304 which translates to 75 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. They both have one win head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Panthers averaged 59 points per game and the Buccaneers 35. The computer would set the spread at CAR -10. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -6.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Panthers are 3-6-0. As an underdog, the Buccaneers are 6-4-2. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. Both have covered the spread once head-to-head. The Panthers were favored by an average of -4.8 points in these games and they won by an average of 24.3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Tampa Bay Buccaneers4921.223.328%29%34.7 (1 Win)
Carolina Panthers-6.527.833.372%70%59.0 (1 Win)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Sunday, September 15, 2019

Arizona Cardinals vs Baltimore Ravens

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Ravens over the Cardinals. The projected score is Ravens 30 and Cardinals 16, and Baltimore is winning 84% of the sims. At -799 on the moneyline, the Ravens implied probability to win is 89 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is BAL -14.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -13.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Ravens are 5-9-0. As an underdog, the Cardinals are 8-6-1. The Cardinals are 4-3-1 ATS on the road since last season. The Ravens were 3-6-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Arizona Cardinals46.516.515.715%16%--
Baltimore Ravens-13.530.030.285%84%--

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Redskins

The odds and our simulations favor the Cowboys over the Redskins despite being on the road. The projected score is Cowboys 24 and Redskins 20, with Dallas winning 59% of the latest sims. The Cowboys are -243 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 71 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. They both have one win head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Redskins averaged 43 points per game and the Cowboys 32. The projection based point spread is DAL -4. Bettors seem to be favoring the Cowboys as the Vegas line has moved from +4.5 to 5. The Cowboys have a record of 4-3-2 as a favorite. The Redskins have a record of 9-5-0 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. They have both covered the spread once in their last few matchups. The average point spread in these games was Cowboys -3 but the Redskins won by an average of 11 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Dallas Cowboys46.525.823.768%59%32.0 (1 Win)
Washington Redskins+5.020.719.632%40%43.0 (1 Win)

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

The Titans are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Titans 21 and Colts 16, and Tennessee is winning 62% of simulations. The moneyline for the Titans is -177 which translates to 64 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Colts are up in this matchup recently going 2-0. In these games, the Colts averaged 36 and the Titans 27 ppg. The projection based point spread is TEN -5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Titans are 2-3-0. As an underdog, the Colts are 4-5-1. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Colts have the ATS edge head to head going 2-0-0 vs the Titans. The average point spread in these games was Colts -1.4 and they won by an average of 8.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Indianapolis Colts44.520.816.438%37%35.5 (2 Wins)
Tennessee Titans-3.023.721.462%62%27.0 (0 Wins)

Seattle Seahawks vs Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is Steelers 23 and Seahawks 22, and Pittsburgh is winning 54% of simulations. At -196 on the moneyline, the Steelers implied probability to win is 66 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at PIT -2. More of the action seems to be on the Steelers with the Vegas line moving from -3.5 to -4. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Steelers are 3-7-1. As an underdog, the Seahawks are 4-1-2. The Seahawks are 4-3-2 ATS on the road since last season. The Steelers were 4-4-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Seattle Seahawks46.521.221.536%45%--
Pittsburgh Steelers-4.025.323.464%54%--

San Francisco 49ers vs Cincinnati Bengals

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds favor the Bengals. The projected score is 49ers 25 and Bengals 24, with San Francisco being given a 50% chance of winning. At -128 on the moneyline, the Bengals implied probability to win is 56 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Bengals based on how the moneyline is moving. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. If you used the computer projected score to set the line, this would be a pick 'em. The Bengals opened as +2 underdogs and are now -2 favorites so more bettors seem to be on them to cover. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Bengals are 3-2-0. As an underdog, the 49ers are 6-7-0. The 49ers are 3-6-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Bengals were 3-5-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Francisco 49ers4521.525.046%50%--
Cincinnati Bengals-2.023.524.954%49%--

Los Angeles Chargers vs Detroit Lions

The odds favor the Chargers, and the sims are solidly on the Chargers as well. The projected score is Chargers 25 and Lions 21, and Los Angeles is winning 59% of simulations. The Chargers are -144 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 59 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is LAC -4.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Lions with the Vegas moving from +3 to +2.5. The Chargers have a record of 5-6-1 as a favorite. The Lions have a record of 6-5-0 as an underdog. The Chargers are 8-3-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Lions were 3-5-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Chargers47.525.024.957%59%--
Detroit Lions+2.522.520.643%40%--

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds favor the Packers. The projected score is Packers 22 and Vikings 20, with Green Bay winning 53% of the time. The moneyline for the Packers is -160 which translates to 62 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In their last 3 matchups the Vikings are 1-0 with one tie.In these games the Packers averaged 46 points per game and the Vikings 35. The projection based point spread is GB -1.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -3. The Packers have a record of 4-5-0 as a favorite. The Vikings have a record of 1-4-1 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. They have both covered the spread once in their last few matchups. The average point spread in these games was Vikings -1.8 but the Packers won by an average of 10.7 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Minnesota Vikings4420.520.241%46%35.3 (1 Win)
Green Bay Packers-3.023.521.759%53%46.0 (0 Wins)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Texans over the Jaguars. The projected score is Texans 25 and Jaguars 15, and Houston is winning 73% of the sims. The moneyline for the Texans is -469 which translates to 82 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Texans have the recent head-to-head edge going 2-0. In these games the Texans averaged 40 points per game and the Jaguars 10. The computer would set the spread at HOU -10. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -8.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Texans are 5-7-1. As an underdog, the Jaguars are 3-5-2. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Texans are 2-0-0 against the spread vs the Jaguars. The Texans were favored by an average of -1.8 points in these games and they won by an average of 30 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Jacksonville Jaguars43.517.514.821%27%10.0 (0 Wins)
Houston Texans-8.526.024.879%73%40.0 (2 Wins)

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Patriots to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Patriots 35 and Dolphins 14, with New England winning 88% of the latest sims. The Patriots are -2283 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 96 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. They both have one win head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Patriots averaged 47 and the Dolphins 41 ppg. The projection based point spread is NE -21. More of the action seems to be on the Patriots as the Vegas line has moved from +16.5 to 19. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Patriots are 12-7-0. As an underdog, the Dolphins are 4-8-0. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. They have both covered the spread once in their last few matchups. The average point spread in these games was Patriots -5.2 and they won by an average of 6.3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New England Patriots4833.534.992%88%47.3 (1 Win)
Miami Dolphins+19.014.513.88%11%41.0 (1 Win)

Buffalo Bills vs New York Giants

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Giants are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is Giants 20 and Bills 17, and New York is winning 57% of the sims. At -126 on the moneyline, the Bills implied probability to win is 56 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Giants since the moneyline is moving that way. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at NYG -3. Bettors seem to be favoring the Giants with the Vegas moving from +2.5 to +1.5. The Bills have a record of 1-2-0 as a favorite. The Giants have a record of 7-7-0 as an underdog. The Bills are 5-4-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Giants were 1-6-1 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Buffalo Bills43.522.516.853%42%--
New York Giants+1.521.019.647%57%--

Kansas City Chiefs vs Oakland Raiders

The Chiefs are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Chiefs 36 and Raiders 26, and Kansas City is winning 69% of simulations. The moneyline for the Chiefs is -367 which translates to 79 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Chiefs have the recent head-to-head edge going 2-0. In these games, the Chiefs averaged 38 and the Raiders 36 ppg. The computer would set the spread at KC -10.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Raiders with the Vegas moving from +8 to +7.5. The Chiefs have a record of 8-6-0 as a favorite. The Raiders have a record of 6-9-0 as an underdog. They have both covered the spread once in their last few matchups. The average point spread in these games was Chiefs -7.1 and they won by an average of 1.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Kansas City Chiefs53.530.536.275%69%37.5 (2 Wins)
Oakland Raiders+7.523.025.825%31%36.0 (0 Wins)

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds favor the Rams. The projected score is Rams 28 and Saints 27, and Los Angeles is winning 52% of simulations. The Rams are -140 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 58 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Saints based on how the moneyline is moving. They both have one win head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Rams averaged 61 points per game and the Saints 45. The projection based point spread is LAR -1. Bettors seem to be favoring the Saints with the Vegas moving from +3 to +2.5. The Rams have a record of 9-7-2 as a favorite. The Saints have a record of 3-0-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. They have both covered the spread once in their last few matchups. The average point spread in these games was Saints -0.3 but the Rams won by an average of 15.7 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New Orleans Saints5224.827.144%48%45.3 (1 Win)
Los Angeles Rams-2.527.228.256%52%61.0 (1 Win)

Chicago Bears vs Denver Broncos

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds favor the Bears. The projected score is Bears 20 and Broncos 18, with Chicago being given a 53% chance of winning. The Bears are -146 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 59 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Bears since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is CHI -1.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Bears as the Vegas line has moved from +1 to 2.5. The Bears have a record of 9-5-0 as a favorite. The Broncos have a record of 4-3-0 as an underdog. The Bears are 5-3-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Broncos were 2-5-1 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Chicago Bears40.521.520.057%53%--
Denver Broncos+2.519.018.443%46%--

Philadelphia Eagles vs Atlanta Falcons

The odds favor the Eagles, and the sims are solidly on the Eagles as well. The projected score is Eagles 28 and Falcons 23, with Philadelphia being given a 61% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Eagles is -126 which translates to 56 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In their last 2 matchups the Eagles are 1-0. In these games the Falcons averaged 24 points per game and the Eagles 18. The projection based point spread is PHI -5.5. More of the action seems to be on the Eagles as the Vegas line has moved from +1 to 1.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Eagles are 4-8-1. As an underdog, the Falcons are 1-4-0. The spread in the game was a pick 'em (zero points).

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Philadelphia Eagles5126.228.353%61%18.0 (1 Win)
Atlanta Falcons+1.524.822.847%39%24.0 (0 Wins)

Monday, September 16, 2019

Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets

The odds favor the Browns, and the sims are solidly on the Browns as well. The projected score is Browns 29 and Jets 24, and Cleveland is winning 59% of simulations. At -144 on the moneyline, the Browns implied probability to win is 59 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Head-to-head, the Browns are 1-0. In these games the Jets averaged 34 points per game and the Browns 21. The computer would set the spread at CLE -4. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening NYJ +2.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Browns are 1-3-0. As an underdog, the Jets are 4-8-1. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Browns have the ATS edge head to head going 1-0-0 vs the Jets. The average point spread in these games was Browns -1.5 but the Jets won by an average of 13 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cleveland Browns4624.228.657%59%21.0 (1 Win)
New York Jets+2.521.824.543%40%34.0 (0 Wins)