NFL Week 6 Picks: Rams and 49ers Projected to Go Over…Seattle Should Be Slightly Favored vs Browns

Thursday, October 10, 2019

New York Giants vs New England Patriots

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Patriots to win the game. The projected score is Patriots 32 and Giants 12, and New England is winning 91% of the sims. At -1227 on the moneyline, the Patriots implied probability to win is 92 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at NE -19. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -16.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Patriots are 14-9-0. As an underdog, the Giants are 8-9-0. The Giants are 8-2-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Patriots are 8-3-0 ATS at home since last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Giants4112.212.511%9%--
New England Patriots-16.528.831.589%91%--

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

Sunday, October 13, 2019

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds favor the Panthers. The projected score is Panthers 27 and Buccaneers 26, with Carolina being given a 51% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Panthers is -131 which translates to 57 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Head-to-head, the Buccaneers are 2-1. Both teams have averaged 24 points in these games. The computer would set the spread at CAR -1. The Panthers opened as +1 underdogs and are now -2 favorites so more bettors seem to be on them to cover. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Panthers are 4-7-0. As an underdog, the Buccaneers are 8-5-2. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Buccaneers have the ATS edge head to head going 2-1-0 vs the Panthers. The average point spread in these games was Panthers -5.3 and they won by an average of 0.3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Carolina Panthers47.524.826.854%51%24.3 (1 Win)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+2.022.726.146%49%24.0 (2 Wins)

Washington Redskins vs Miami Dolphins

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Redskins to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Redskins 23 and Dolphins 16, with Washington winning 66% of the latest sims. At -183 on the moneyline, the Redskins implied probability to win is 65 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at WAS -6.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening MIA +3.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Redskins are 1-2-0. As an underdog, the Dolphins are 4-11-0. The Redskins are 6-4-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Dolphins are 6-5-0 ATS at home since last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Redskins4122.222.963%66%--
Miami Dolphins+3.518.816.437%34%--

Philadelphia Eagles vs Minnesota Vikings

The odds favor the Vikings, and the sims are solidly on the Vikings as well. The projected score is Vikings 22 and Eagles 19, and Minnesota is winning 56% of simulations. The moneyline for the Vikings is -149 which translates to 60 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. Minnesota won their lone matchup in recent seasons 23 to 21. The projection based point spread is MIN -3. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -3. The Vikings have a record of 9-3-1 as a favorite. The Eagles have a record of 4-2-0 as an underdog. In their last match-up (MIN won by 2) Minnesota covered the spread. The Eagles were -3.5 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Philadelphia Eagles4420.518.642%43%21.0 (0 Wins)
Minnesota Vikings-3.023.521.858%56%23.0 (1 Win)

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Chiefs over the Texans. The projected score is Chiefs 29 and Texans 22, with Kansas City winning 66% of the time. At -233 on the moneyline, the Chiefs implied probability to win is 70 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Texans since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is KC -7.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Texans with the Vegas moving from +6.5 to +5. The Chiefs have a record of 10-8-0 as a favorite. The Texans have a record of 4-1-1 as an underdog. The Texans are 5-3-2 ATS on the road since last season. The Chiefs are 6-6-0 ATS at home since last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Texans5525.021.833%34%--
Kansas City Chiefs-5.030.029.367%66%--

New Orleans Saints vs Jacksonville Jaguars

The simulations slightly favor the Saints who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is Saints 21 and Jaguars 19, and New Orleans is winning 53% of simulations. The moneyline for the Jaguars is -122 which translates to 55 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is NO -2. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Jaguars are 2-5-0. As an underdog, the Saints are 5-1-0. The Saints are 7-3-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Jaguars are 4-4-1 ATS at home since last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New Orleans Saints44.521.820.948%53%--
Jacksonville Jaguars-1.022.719.152%46%--

Seattle Seahawks vs Cleveland Browns

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds favor the Seahawks. The projected score is Seahawks 23 and Browns 21, with Seattle winning 53% of the latest sims. At -125 on the moneyline, the Seahawks implied probability to win is 56 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Seahawks based on how the moneyline is moving. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is SEA -1.5. The Seahawks opened as +2.5 underdogs and are now -1.5 favorites so more bettors seem to be on them to cover. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Seahawks are 5-6-1. As an underdog, the Browns are 9-6-0. The Seahawks are 6-3-2 ATS on the road since last season. The Browns are 5-5-0 ATS at home since last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Seattle Seahawks47.524.522.753%53%--
Cleveland Browns+1.523.021.347%47%--

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Ravens 34 and Bengals 22, and Baltimore is winning 79% of the sims. At -593 on the moneyline, the Ravens implied probability to win is 86 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. They both have one win head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Bengals averaged 28 and the Ravens 24 ppg. The projection based point spread is BAL -12. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -11.5. The Ravens have a record of 5-11-1 as a favorite. The Bengals have a record of 8-5-0 as an underdog. The Bengals have the ATS edge head to head going 2-0-0 vs the Ravens. The Ravens were favored by an average of -3.8 points in these games but the Bengals won by an average of 4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cincinnati Bengals4818.222.218%21%27.5 (1 Win)
Baltimore Ravens-11.529.834.182%79%23.5 (1 Win)

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams

The odds and our simulations favor the Rams over the 49ers. The projected score is Rams 30 and 49ers 25, and Los Angeles is winning 61% of the sims. At -186 on the moneyline, the Rams implied probability to win is 65 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Rams are up in this matchup recently going 2-0. In these games the Rams averaged 44 points per game and the 49ers 21. The computer would set the spread at LAR -5.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -3.5. The Rams have a record of 11-8-2 as a favorite. The 49ers have a record of 7-7-0 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Rams have the ATS edge head to head going 2-0-0 vs the 49ers. The Rams were favored by an average of -9.5 points in these games and they won by an average of 22.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Francisco 49ers50.523.524.837%39%21.0 (0 Wins)
Los Angeles Rams-3.527.030.463%61%43.5 (2 Wins)

Atlanta Falcons vs Arizona Cardinals

The simulations slightly favor the Cardinals who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is Cardinals 26 and Falcons 25, with Arizona winning 51% of the time. The moneyline for the Falcons is -140 which translates to 58 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Atlanta won their lone matchup in recent seasons 40 to 14. The projection based point spread is ARI -1. More of the action seems to be on the Falcons as the Vegas line has moved from +2 to 2.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Falcons are 4-8-0. As an underdog, the Cardinals are 10-7-1. In their last match-up (ATL won by 26) , Atlanta covered the spread. The Falcons were -9.5 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Atlanta Falcons51.527.025.156%48%40.0 (1 Win)
Arizona Cardinals+2.524.525.744%51%14.0 (0 Wins)

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Cowboys to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Cowboys 25 and Jets 16, with Dallas being given a 72% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Cowboys is -361 which translates to 78 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at DAL -9.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Jets with the Vegas moving from +7.5 to +7. The Cowboys have a record of 6-5-2 as a favorite. The Jets have a record of 5-10-1 as an underdog. The Cowboys are 5-6-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Jets are 2-7-1 ATS at home since last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Dallas Cowboys4325.025.375%72%--
New York Jets+7.018.015.825%27%--

Tennessee Titans vs Denver Broncos

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Titans are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is Titans 19 and Broncos 18, with Tennessee winning 54% of the latest sims. The Broncos are -139 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 58 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is TEN -1.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -2.5. The Broncos have a record of 2-8-1 as a favorite. The Titans have a record of 8-4-0 as an underdog. The Titans are 6-5-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Broncos are 3-6-1 ATS at home since last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Tennessee Titans39.518.519.344%54%--
Denver Broncos-2.521.017.656%45%--

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Chargers 23 and Steelers 16, and Los Angeles is winning 68% of the sims. The Chargers are -307 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 75 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Los Angeles won their lone matchup in recent seasons 33 to 30. The computer would set the spread at LAC -7. Bettors seem to be favoring the Chargers as the Vegas line has moved from -6.5 to -7. The Chargers have a record of 6-9-1 as a favorite. The Steelers have a record of 6-1-1 as an underdog. In their last match-up (LAC won by 3) Los Angeles covered the spread. The Steelers were -3 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Steelers41.517.216.128%32%30.0 (0 Wins)
Los Angeles Chargers-7.024.323.372%68%33.0 (1 Win)

Monday, October 14, 2019

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers

The odds and our simulations favor the Packers over the Lions, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is Packers 24 and Lions 21, with Green Bay winning 57% of the time. At -216 on the moneyline, the Packers implied probability to win is 68 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Lions based on how the moneyline is moving. The Lions are up in this matchup recently going 2-0. In these games, the Lions averaged 31 and the Packers 12 ppg. The computer would set the spread at GB -3. With more action on the Lions, oddsmakers have moved the line from +6 to +4. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Packers are 6-6-0. As an underdog, the Lions are 9-5-0. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Lions have the ATS edge head to head going 2-0-0 vs the Packers. The Packers were favored by an average of -3.2 points in these games but the Lions won by an average of 19.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Lions4721.520.734%43%31.0 (2 Wins)
Green Bay Packers-4.025.523.866%57%11.5 (0 Wins)