NFL WildCard Games: Cowboys Barely Over Seahawks in Latest Simulation

Saturday, January 05, 2019

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds favor the Texans. The projected score is Texans 26 and Colts 25, and Houston is winning 52% of simulations. The moneyline for the Texans is -135 which translates to 57 percent (chance of winning). Bettors seem to be favoring the Colts since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. The Colts are up in this matchup recently going 3-1. In these games, the Colts averaged 25 and the Texans 21 ppg. The projection based point spread is HOU -1. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -2.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Texans are 5-6-1. As an underdog, the Colts are 3-4-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. Both have covered the spread once head-to-head. The Texans were favored by an average of -1.2 points in these games but the Colts won by an average of 3.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Indianapolis Colts47.522.525.245%48%25.0 (3 Wins)
Houston Texans-2.525.026.455%52%21.2 (1 Win)

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Seattle Seahawks vs Dallas Cowboys

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds favor the Cowboys. The projected score is Cowboys 23 and Seahawks 22, and Dallas is winning 51% of simulations. The Cowboys are -141 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 59 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Seahawks are up in this matchup recently going 2-0. In these games, the Seahawks averaged 22 and the Cowboys 12 ppg. The projection based point spread is DAL -1. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -2.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Cowboys are 3-3-1. As an underdog, the Seahawks are 4-1-1. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Seahawks have the ATS edge head to head going 1-0-0 vs the Cowboys. The average point spread in these games was Seahawks -0.5 and they won by an average of 10 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Seattle Seahawks4219.822.444%49%22.5 (2 Wins)
Dallas Cowboys-2.522.222.756%51%12.5 (0 Wins)

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Sunday, January 06, 2019

Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens

The odds favor the Ravens, and the sims are solidly on the Ravens as well. The projected score is Ravens 24 and Chargers 19, and Baltimore is winning 60% of simulations. The Ravens are -147 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 60 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Baltimore won their lone matchup in recent seasons 22 to 10. The projection based point spread is BAL -4.5. With more action on the Chargers, oddsmakers have moved the line from +3 to +2.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Ravens are 4-8-0. As an underdog, the Chargers are 3-1-0. In their last match-up (BAL won by 12) Baltimore covered the spread. The Chargers were -4 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Chargers4219.819.343%40%10.0 (0 Wins)
Baltimore Ravens-2.522.223.757%60%22.0 (1 Win)

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Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears

The odds and our simulations favor the Bears over the Eagles, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is Bears 24 and Eagles 21, with Chicago winning 55% of the time. At -250 on the moneyline, the Bears implied proability to win is 71 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Eagles are up in this matchup recently going 2-0. In these games, the Eagles averaged 30 and the Bears 8 ppg. The projection based point spread is CHI -2.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -5.5. The Bears have a record of 9-3-0 as a favorite. The Eagles have a record of 1-2-0 as an underdog. The average spread in these 2 games was a pick 'em (zero points) and the Eagles won by an average of 21.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Philadelphia Eagles4218.221.231%45%30.0 (2 Wins)
Chicago Bears-5.523.823.969%55%8.5 (0 Wins)

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