NFL Wildcard Picks: Cowboys, Ravens, and Bears All Barely Win

Saturday, January 05, 2019

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds favor the Texans. The projected score is Texans 27 and Colts 25, and Houston is winning 53% of the sims. The Texans are -125 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 56 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Colts based on how the moneyline is moving. The Colts have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. In these games, the Colts averaged 25 and the Texans 21 ppg. The projection based point spread is HOU -1.5. With more action on the Colts, oddsmakers have moved the line from +2.5 to +1. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Texans are 5-6-1. As an underdog, the Colts are 3-4-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. They have both covered the spread once in their last few matchups. The Texans were favored by an average of -1.2 points in these games but the Colts won by an average of 3.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Indianapolis Colts47.523.225.247%47%25.0 (3 Wins)
Houston Texans-1.024.326.653%53%21.2 (1 Win)

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Seattle Seahawks vs Dallas Cowboys

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds favor the Cowboys. The projected score is Seahawks 23 and Cowboys 22, with Seattle winning 50% of the latest sims. The Cowboys are -120 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 55 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Seahawks since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. The Seahawks have the recent head-to-head edge going 2-0. In these games, the Seahawks averaged 22 and the Cowboys 12 ppg. The computer would set this game as a pick 'em. Bettors seem to be favoring the Seahawks with the Vegas moving from +2.5 to +1. The Cowboys have a record of 3-3-1 as a favorite. The Seahawks have a record of 4-1-1 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Seahawks are 1-0-0 against the spread vs the Cowboys. The average point spread in these games was Seahawks -0.5 and they won by an average of 10 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Seattle Seahawks43.521.222.748%50%22.5 (2 Wins)
Dallas Cowboys-1.022.322.652%50%12.5 (0 Wins)

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Sunday, January 06, 2019

Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens

The odds favor the Ravens, and the sims are solidly on the Ravens as well. The projected score is Ravens 22 and Chargers 20, with Baltimore winning 55% of the time. At -136 on the moneyline, the Ravens implied proability to win is 58 percent. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Chargers to win. Baltimore won their lone matchup in recent seasons 22 to 10. The projection based point spread is BAL -2. With more action on the Chargers, oddsmakers have moved the line from +3 to +2.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Ravens are 4-8-0. As an underdog, the Chargers are 3-1-0. In their last match-up (BAL won by 12) Baltimore covered the spread. The Chargers were -4 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Chargers41.519.519.845%45%10.0 (0 Wins)
Baltimore Ravens-2.522.021.855%55%22.0 (1 Win)

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Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Bears to win the game, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is Bears 23 and Eagles 20, with Chicago winning 55% of the time. At -250 on the moneyline, the Bears implied proability to win is 71 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Eagles are up in this matchup recently going 2-0. In these games, the Eagles averaged 30 and the Bears 8 ppg. The projection based point spread is CHI -2.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -5.5. The Bears have a record of 9-3-0 as a favorite. The Eagles have a record of 1-2-0 as an underdog. The average spread in these 2 games was a pick 'em (zero points) and the Eagles won by an average of 21.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Philadelphia Eagles4117.820.231%45%30.0 (2 Wins)
Chicago Bears-5.523.222.669%55%8.5 (0 Wins)

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