Philip Rivers is a Strong DFS Play and Julio Jones is One to Fade

Philip Rivers

Based on dollar value, he is the #1 most valuable option at quarterback on DraftKings. He is priced at $6K and at this price he is expected to have 22 points on DraftKings. With a projection of 26.6 he is worth +$1255 over this price. He reached his expected point total of 22 DraftKings points 13 times (32%). He is 4-36 reaching his projected point total of 26.6. With a better than expected projection rank there are other quarterbacks you should avoid that are projected for fewer points with the same or higher salary. Cam Newton (22.7 FP), Matt Ryan (23.6 FP), Drew Brees (23.6 FP), Tom Brady (22.2 FP), and Ben Roethlisberger (24.3 FP) are all worse options.

He is one of the very best FanDuel values at quarterback. He is priced at $8.2K and at this price he is expected to have 20 points on FanDuel. With a projection of 24.2 he is worth +$1722 over this price. He is 13-27 reaching their expected salary based point total (32%). He is 4-36 reaching his projected point total of 24.2. With a better than expected projection rank there are other quarterbacks you should avoid that are projected for fewer points with the same or higher salary. Matt Ryan (21.2 FP), Drew Brees (21.6 FP), Tom Brady (19.9 FP), and Pat Mahomes (23.9 FP) are all worse options.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Davante Adams are also good values on both FanDuel and DraftKings on 11/9.

Julio Jones

Based on a price of $8.7K, he is expected to be the #1 wide receiver on FanDuel, but their projected rank is just #4. Despite this lower ranking, he is still worth +$215 dollars more than their price. He is 16-29 reaching their expected salary based point total (36%). With a lower than expected projection rank there are other wide receivers that are projected for more points with the same or lower salary. Keenan Allen (16.8 FP), Michael Thomas (18.5 FP), and Davante Adams (19.6 FP) are all better options.

He is projected for 22.4 DraftKings points and at $8.3K he is expected to put up 22.5 points. This difference translates to a -37 dollar value on DraftKings. He hit this expected level of performance in 36% of games. With a lower than expected projection rank there are other wide receivers that are projected for more points with the same or lower salary. Odell Beckham (22.9 FP), Michael Thomas (25 FP), and Davante Adams (25.5 FP) are all better options.

Pat Mahomes and Todd Gurley are also bad values on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

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This information was last updated at 11/9/2018 8:08:41 AM. SportsLine has a Daily Fantasy Cheat Sheet and Optimal Lineups based on the latest computer projections. It also features lineups from DFS Millionaire, Mike McClure, visit SportsLine.com for more.

TODAY'S GAMES (AVG O/U 47.4) AND PROJECTED FANTASY LEADERS

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS CINCINNATI BENGALS O/U 54

  • Alvin Kamara (RB) 21.4 FD $8.8K, 25.2 DK $8.7K
  • Drew Brees (QB) 21.6 FD $8.4K, 23.6 DK $6.3K
  • Michael Thomas (WR) 18.5 FD $8.6K, 25 DK $8.1K
  • Andy Dalton (QB) 18 FD $7.9K, 19.6 DK $5.8K
  • Tre'Quan Smith (WR) 9.2 FD $5.6K, 10.8 DK $4.6K

WASHINGTON REDSKINS VS TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS O/U 51

  • Alex Smith (QB) 17.8 FD $7.6K, 19.4 DK $5.3K
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB) 16.9 FD $7.6K, 18.4 DK $5.9K
  • Mike Evans (WR) 13.1 FD $7.5K, 17 DK $7K
  • Adrian Peterson (RB) 12.2 FD $6.8K, 14.1 DK $5.7K
  • Kapri Bibbs (RB) 11.8 FD $4.8K, 13.5 DK $3.6K

ATLANTA FALCONS VS CLEVELAND BROWNS O/U 50.5

  • Matt Ryan (QB) 21.2 FD $8.5K, 23.6 DK $6.2K
  • Julio Jones (WR) 16.6 FD $8.7K, 22.4 DK $8.3K
  • Baker Mayfield (QB) 16.9 FD $7.4K, 18.6 DK $5.4K
  • Nick Chubb (RB) 15.4 FD $6.7K, 17.5 DK $5.5K
  • Jarvis Landry (WR) 12 FD $6.4K, 16.1 DK $6.2K

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS VS OAKLAND RAIDERS O/U 50

  • Philip Rivers (QB) 24.2 FD $8.2K, 26.6 DK $6K
  • Melvin Gordon (RB) 23.1 FD $8.9K, 26.5 DK $9K
  • Keenan Allen (WR) 16.8 FD $7.9K, 21.9 DK $7.1K
  • Derek Carr (QB) 14.2 FD $6.6K, 15.5 DK $4.7K
  • Tyrell Williams (WR) 11.6 FD $6.5K, 13.9 DK $4.5K

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS LOS ANGELES RAMS O/U 50

  • Todd Gurley (RB) 21.6 FD $10.8K, 25.2 DK $9.4K
  • Jared Goff (QB) 17.9 FD $8.1K, 19.7 DK $6.1K
  • Russell Wilson (QB) 17.6 FD $7.7K, 18.7 DK $5.7K
  • Tyler Lockett (WR) 10.6 FD $6.2K, 12.5 DK $4.8K
  • Seattle Defense (DST) 8.3 FD $3.1K, 8.3 DK $2K

ARIZONA CARDINALS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS O/U 49.5

  • Pat Mahomes (QB) 23.9 FD $9.8K, 25.9 DK $7.2K
  • David Johnson (RB) 17.2 FD $6.9K, 20 DK $6.8K
  • Tyreek Hill (WR) 15.7 FD $7.6K, 19.4 DK $7.3K
  • Travis Kelce (TE) 14.5 FD $8K, 18.6 DK $7K
  • Josh Rosen (QB) 13.9 FD $6.5K, 15 DK $4.8K

MIAMI DOLPHINS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS O/U 47.5

  • Aaron Rodgers (QB) 24.3 FD $8.6K, 26.8 DK $6.4K
  • Davante Adams (WR) 19.6 FD $8.6K, 25.5 DK $7.8K
  • Aaron Jones (RB) 14.3 FD $6.5K, 16 DK $5K
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR) 12.6 FD $5.4K, 15.5 DK $5K
  • Jimmy Graham (TE) 11.7 FD $6.3K, 14.8 DK $4.6K

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS O/U 46.5

  • Blake Bortles (QB) 16.9 FD $6.8K, 18.4 DK $4.9K
  • Andrew Luck (QB) 16.9 FD $7.8K, 18 DK $5.5K
  • Dede Westbrook (WR) 9.8 FD $5.4K, 12.2 DK $4.7K
  • Keelan Cole (WR) 8.7 FD $4.8K, 11.3 DK $4.5K
  • Eric Ebron (TE) 7.4 FD $5.4K, 9 DK $3.5K

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS TENNESSEE TITANS O/U 46.5

  • Tom Brady (QB) 19.9 FD $8.3K, 22.2 DK $6K
  • Marcus Mariota (QB) 16 FD $6.7K, 16.8 DK $4.7K
  • James White (RB) 14.4 FD $7.8K, 17.7 DK $7.3K
  • Julian Edelman (WR) 12.6 FD $7.3K, 16.2 DK $6.8K
  • Dion Lewis (RB) 11.5 FD $5.8K, 13.7 DK $4.6K

DETROIT LIONS VS CHICAGO BEARS O/U 44

  • Mitchell Trubisky (QB) 21.7 FD $7.7K, 22.9 DK $5.6K
  • Matthew Stafford (QB) 16.5 FD $6.8K, 18.2 DK $5K
  • Tarik Cohen (RB) 13.1 FD $6.4K, 15.4 DK $5.5K
  • Jordan Howard (RB) 13 FD $6.5K, 14.5 DK $4.7K
  • Kenny Golladay (WR) 11.2 FD $5.8K, 14.2 DK $5.1K

DALLAS COWBOYS VS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES O/U 43

  • Carson Wentz 19.2 DK $5.7K
  • Ezekiel Elliott 18.9 DK $7.5K
  • Dak Prescott 17.8 DK $4.9K
  • Zach Ertz 14.3 DK $6.3K
  • Amari Cooper 14 DK $5K

BUFFALO BILLS VS NEW YORK JETS O/U 36.5

  • Josh McCown (QB) 16.1 FD $6K, 17.4 DK $4.3K
  • Isaiah Crowell (RB) 12.7 FD $5.4K, 14.2 DK $4.2K
  • LeSean McCoy (RB) 10.7 FD $5.6K, 12.5 DK $4.5K
  • NY Jets Defense (DST) 11.1 FD $4.9K, 11.1 DK $3.4K
  • Quincy Enunwa (WR) 8.4 FD $5.2K, 10.8 DK $3.7K
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