Philip Rivers is a Strong DFS Play vs Raiders and Pat Mahomes is One to Fade

Philip Rivers

He is a great value at the quarterback position on DraftKings. He is projected for 26.7 DraftKings points and based on his $6K price he is expected to put up just 22.1 points. He is worth +$1249 more than his salary. He hit this expected level of performance in 32% of games. He is 4-36 reaching his projected point total of 26.7. With a better than expected projection rank there are other quarterbacks you should avoid that are projected for fewer points with the same or higher salary. Cam Newton (22.7 FP), Matt Ryan (23.6 FP), Drew Brees (23.6 FP), Tom Brady (22.1 FP), and Ben Roethlisberger (24.2 FP) are all worse options.

He is one of the very best FanDuel values at quarterback. Based on salary ($8.2K) he is expected to put up around 20 fantasy points, but his latest FanDuel projection is for 24.3 points (a +$1763 dollar value). He is 13-27 reaching their expected salary based point total (32%). He is 4-36 reaching his projected point total of 24.3. With a better than expected projection rank there are other quarterbacks you should avoid that are projected for fewer points with the same or higher salary. Matt Ryan (21.2 FP), Drew Brees (21.5 FP), Tom Brady (19.9 FP), Aaron Rodgers (24.2 FP), and Pat Mahomes (23.9 FP) are all worse options.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Davante Adams are also good values on both FanDuel and DraftKings on 11/8.

Pat Mahomes

He is priced at $7.2 on DraftKings with 26.5 expected points. He is projected for 26. This difference translates to a -136 dollar value on DraftKings. He reached his expected point total of 26.5 DraftKings points 7 times (27%). With a lower than expected projection rank there are other quarterbacks that are projected for more points with the same or lower salary. Philip Rivers (26.7 FP) and Aaron Rodgers (26.6 FP) are better options.

At $9.8K you would expect 23.9 FanDuel points and he is projected for 23.9 points. He is is worth his FanDuel price. He reached his expected point total of 23.9 FanDuel points 7 times (27%). With a lower than expected projection rank there are other quarterbacks that are projected for more points with the same or lower salary. Philip Rivers (24.3 FP) and Aaron Rodgers (24.2 FP) are better options.

Julio Jones and Todd Gurley are also bad values on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

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This information was last updated at 11/8/2018 11:26:14 AM. SportsLine has a Daily Fantasy Cheat Sheet and Optimal Lineups based on the latest computer projections. It also features lineups from DFS Millionaire, Mike McClure, visit SportsLine.com for more.

TODAY'S GAMES (AVG O/U 47.5) AND PROJECTED FANTASY LEADERS

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS CINCINNATI BENGALS O/U 54

  • Alvin Kamara (RB) 21.4 FD $8.8K, 25.2 DK $8.7K
  • Drew Brees (QB) 21.5 FD $8.4K, 23.6 DK $6.3K
  • Michael Thomas (WR) 18.5 FD $8.6K, 25 DK $8.1K
  • Andy Dalton (QB) 18 FD $7.9K, 19.6 DK $5.8K
  • Tre'Quan Smith (WR) 9.2 FD $5.6K, 10.8 DK $4.6K

WASHINGTON REDSKINS VS TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS O/U 51.5

  • Alex Smith (QB) 18 FD $7.6K, 19.7 DK $5.3K
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB) 17.5 FD $7.6K, 19.2 DK $5.9K
  • Mike Evans (WR) 13.5 FD $7.5K, 17.6 DK $7K
  • Adrian Peterson (RB) 12.9 FD $6.8K, 15 DK $5.7K
  • Jordan Reed (TE) 10.4 FD $5.2K, 13.8 DK $4.4K

ATLANTA FALCONS VS CLEVELAND BROWNS O/U 50.5

  • Matt Ryan (QB) 21.2 FD $8.5K, 23.6 DK $6.2K
  • Julio Jones (WR) 16.7 FD $8.7K, 22.5 DK $8.3K
  • Baker Mayfield (QB) 17 FD $7.4K, 18.7 DK $5.4K
  • Nick Chubb (RB) 15.5 FD $6.7K, 17.6 DK $5.5K
  • Jarvis Landry (WR) 12.1 FD $6.4K, 16.2 DK $6.2K

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS LOS ANGELES RAMS O/U 50

  • Todd Gurley (RB) 21.5 FD $10.8K, 25.2 DK $9.4K
  • Jared Goff (QB) 18 FD $8.1K, 19.8 DK $6.1K
  • Russell Wilson (QB) 17.6 FD $7.7K, 18.7 DK $5.7K
  • Tyler Lockett (WR) 10.5 FD $6.2K, 12.4 DK $4.8K
  • Seattle Defense (DST) 8.2 FD $3.1K, 8.2 DK $2K

ARIZONA CARDINALS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS O/U 49.5

  • Pat Mahomes (QB) 23.9 FD $9.8K, 26 DK $7.2K
  • David Johnson (RB) 17.2 FD $6.9K, 20 DK $6.8K
  • Tyreek Hill (WR) 15.6 FD $7.6K, 19.2 DK $7.3K
  • Travis Kelce (TE) 14.3 FD $8K, 18.3 DK $7K
  • Josh Rosen (QB) 13.9 FD $6.5K, 15.1 DK $4.8K

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS VS OAKLAND RAIDERS O/U 49

  • Philip Rivers (QB) 24.3 FD $8.2K, 26.7 DK $6K
  • Melvin Gordon (RB) 23.3 FD $8.9K, 26.7 DK $9K
  • Keenan Allen (WR) 16.7 FD $7.9K, 21.8 DK $7.1K
  • Derek Carr (QB) 14.2 FD $6.6K, 15.6 DK $4.7K
  • Tyrell Williams (WR) 11.6 FD $6.5K, 13.9 DK $4.5K

MIAMI DOLPHINS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS O/U 47.5

  • Aaron Rodgers (QB) 24.2 FD $8.6K, 26.6 DK $6.4K
  • Davante Adams (WR) 19.6 FD $8.6K, 25.5 DK $7.8K
  • Aaron Jones (RB) 14.3 FD $6.5K, 16 DK $5K
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR) 12.5 FD $5.4K, 15.4 DK $5K
  • Jimmy Graham (TE) 11.6 FD $6.3K, 14.6 DK $4.6K

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS O/U 46.5

  • Blake Bortles (QB) 17.2 FD $6.8K, 18.7 DK $4.9K
  • Andrew Luck (QB) 16.9 FD $7.8K, 18 DK $5.5K
  • Dede Westbrook (WR) 9.9 FD $5.4K, 12.3 DK $4.7K
  • Keelan Cole (WR) 8.7 FD $4.8K, 11.4 DK $4.5K
  • Eric Ebron (TE) 7.5 FD $5.4K, 9 DK $3.5K

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS TENNESSEE TITANS O/U 46.5

  • Tom Brady (QB) 19.9 FD $8.3K, 22.1 DK $6K
  • Marcus Mariota (QB) 16 FD $6.7K, 16.8 DK $4.7K
  • James White (RB) 14.4 FD $7.8K, 17.6 DK $7.3K
  • Julian Edelman (WR) 12.6 FD $7.3K, 16.2 DK $6.8K
  • Dion Lewis (RB) 11.6 FD $5.8K, 13.8 DK $4.6K

DETROIT LIONS VS CHICAGO BEARS O/U 45

  • Mitchell Trubisky (QB) 21.4 FD $7.7K, 22.7 DK $5.6K
  • Matthew Stafford (QB) 16.5 FD $6.8K, 18.2 DK $5K
  • Tarik Cohen (RB) 13 FD $6.4K, 15.3 DK $5.5K
  • Jordan Howard (RB) 12.9 FD $6.5K, 14.5 DK $4.7K
  • Kenny Golladay (WR) 11.3 FD $5.8K, 14.3 DK $5.1K

DALLAS COWBOYS VS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES O/U 43

  • Carson Wentz 19.2 DK $5.7K
  • Ezekiel Elliott 18.9 DK $7.5K
  • Dak Prescott 17.9 DK $4.9K
  • Zach Ertz 14.3 DK $6.3K
  • Amari Cooper 14 DK $5K

BUFFALO BILLS VS NEW YORK JETS O/U 36.5

  • Josh McCown (QB) 16.2 FD $6K, 17.4 DK $4.3K
  • Isaiah Crowell (RB) 12.7 FD $5.4K, 14.2 DK $4.2K
  • LeSean McCoy (RB) 10.7 FD $5.6K, 12.4 DK $4.5K
  • NY Jets Defense (DST) 11.3 FD $4.9K, 11.3 DK $3.4K
  • Quincy Enunwa (WR) 8.4 FD $5.2K, 10.9 DK $3.7K
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