Futures

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

The Ducks are competing to make the playoffs but their chances are on a downward trend. In our pre-season forecast they had a 53% chance of making the playoffs. On 10/10 they had a 68.4% chance before dropping to 23.7% on 11/2. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 26.4%. They have a 1.8% chance of winning their division. They have a very slim chance (

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #13 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 53% #7 Toughest

Ducks' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: D

At 8-9-3 the Ducks are behind their money line projected win total of 9.5 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 4 good wins but they also have 4 bad losses. They have won 33% of their road games and were expected to win 41%. At home they have a 45% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 53%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 3-5-2, 30%. In simulations where the Ducks played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 45.7% of the time (#22 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #16 winning 49.8%.

Their record is better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.75 which ranks #28 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #25. They are the #26 ranked team in goal differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #28 ranked team among home teams. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is -1.43.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 5 games is a mixed bag. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 4 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
NOV 16
CLOSE GAME
49% TOR
--
NOV 18
CLOSE GAME
50% COL
--
NOV 21
LIKELY WIN
61% VAN
--
NOV 23
CLOSE GAME
51% EDM
--
NOV 25
LIKELY LOSS
27% @NSH
2836 miles
NOV 27
LIKELY LOSS
27% @TB
3430 miles
NOV 28**
CLOSE GAME
40% @FLA
290 miles
NOV 30
CLOSE GAME
52% @CAR
3562 miles
DEC 2
LIKELY LOSS
26% @WAS
2284 miles
DEC 5
CLOSE GAME
60% CHI
--

The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (34% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 15%. Their chances of winning their next 5 are 2.1%. At #9 in the conference, they are behind the Stars by one point. With a -0.52 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are in a battle with Oilers in the conference. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Oilers. Their projected wins (2.38) over the next 5 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Ducks are just the 27th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Ducks are playing 7 games, traveling 14830 miles crossing 13 time zones. They rank #8 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

The Anaheim Ducks' next game is on November 16. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.