NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The Ducks next 6 game forecast looks rough, to say the least. They have 2 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 47% chance of winning, and 8 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
FEB 22
LIKELY LOSS
30% @CGY
1207 miles
FEB 23**
LIKELY LOSS
36% @EDM
282 miles
FEB 25
CLOSE GAME
42% @VAN
1775 miles
FEB 27
LIKELY LOSS
40% CHI
--
MAR 1
LIKELY LOSS
36% LV
--
MAR 3
LIKELY LOSS
37% COL
--
MAR 5
CLOSE GAME
43% @ARI
324 miles
MAR 6**
LIKELY LOSS
31% STL
324 miles
MAR 8
CLOSE GAME
47% MON
--
MAR 10
CLOSE GAME
48% LA
--

The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 2-4 (31% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 13.1%. At #13 in the conference, they are behind the Canucks by 2 points. With a -0.81 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Oilers by 3 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Oilers. There is only a -0.26 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Ducks are the 5th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Ducks are playing 8 games, traveling 8169 miles crossing 5 time zones. They rank #9 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

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Sportsline has a free pick on the Anaheim Ducks' next game. They are +210 underdogs and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: D

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 24-27-9 Ducks 'should have' 27 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 15 good wins vs 11 bad losses. They have won 39% of their road games and were expected to win 39%. At home they have a 41% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 50%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (3-6-0, 33%) is under their expected 37% win percentage. Ducks fans have to be disappointed that they have fallen well short of their pre-season expectations where they were #16 in the league in power ranking. In simulations where the Ducks played every other team (neutral ice in playoffs) they won just 34.5% of the time (#31 in the league). Their peak rank was #14 in the league back on 10/7.

Their record is better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.85 which ranks #31 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #26. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #28 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #31 in home games. Based on goal differential, they are trending up. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is -0.5 (#20 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

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LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

Before the season, the Ducks were projected for 90.7 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 10/10 their projected points was up to 94.1 before dropping to 72.7 on 2/13. From the start of the season to now their chances are down to 75.9%. The playoffs are not likely with their 3.2% chance and a projected #13 finish in the conference. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 0.4% (250/1 odds) and a 0.2% chance of winning it all (500/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 47% #6 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #1 Toughest

Ducks' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.