LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Coyotes are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 2.5% chance of making the playoffs. On 10/18 they had a 0.1% chance before increasing to 7.5% on 11/12. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 5.9%. They have a very slim chance (

Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Easy

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #14 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 48% #12 Easiest

Coyotes' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B

At 8-8-1 the Coyotes have as many wins as were expected. If you add up their per game money line implied probabilities they would have 7.9 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 5 good wins vs 3 bad losses. They have won 40% of their road games and were expected to win 40%. At home they have a 57% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 56%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 6-3-1 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 4.9 wins. In simulations where the Coyotes played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 40.2% of the time (#28 in the league). They have moved up from #30 in the league back on 10/22.

Their record should be better. Their average goal differential is 0 which ranks #17 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #23. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #5 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #20 in road games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is -1.5 (#30 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The Coyotes next 4 game forecast looks rough, to say the least. They are are the clear underdog in 10 out of the 4 games.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
NOV 15
LIKELY LOSS
28% NSH
--
NOV 17
LIKELY LOSS
33% BOS
--
NOV 21
CLOSE GAME
42% LV
--
NOV 23
CLOSE GAME
41% COL
--
NOV 25
CLOSE GAME
44% CGY
--
NOV 27
LIKELY LOSS
24% @MIN
2075 miles
NOV 29
LIKELY LOSS
28% @NSH
2340 miles
DEC 1
CLOSE GAME
41% STL
--
DEC 4
CLOSE GAME
41% @LA
558 miles
DEC 6
LIKELY LOSS
34% WAS
--

The most likely scenario over the next 4 games is a record of 1-3 (38% chance). Their chances of winning 3 or more are 12.4%. Their chances of winning their next 4 are 1.5%. At #11 in the conference, they are behind the Avalanche by 2 points. With a -1.69 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Blackhawks by one point. With a -1.06 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they may find the gap between them closing.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Coyotes are the 2nd most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Coyotes are playing 6 games, traveling 2075 miles crossing 1 time zone. They rank #16 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

The Arizona Coyotes' next game is on November 15. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.