Futures

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Coyotes are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 2.5% chance of making the playoffs. On 10/18 they had a 0.1% chance before increasing to 8.8% on 11/16. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 7.1%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 2% (50/1 odds) and a 1% chance of winning it all (100/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 52% #3 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #12 Easiest

Coyotes' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

At 21-22-3 the Coyotes are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 20.8 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 14 good wins vs 7 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 12-10-1 road record is +12% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (5-4-1, 50%) is better than their expected 45% win percentage. In simulations where the Coyotes played every other team (neutral ice in playoffs) they won just 38.9% of the time (#27 in the league). They have moved up from #31 in the league back on 1/4.

Their record should be better. Their average goal differential is -0.26 which ranks #20 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #23. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #16 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #25 in home games. Based on goal differential, they are trending up. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +0.67 (#6 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The forecast for their next 4 games is not good. They are the clear underdog in 10 out of the 4 games.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
JAN 18
LIKELY LOSS
24% PIT
--
JAN 20
LIKELY LOSS
24% @TOR
3050 miles
JAN 22
CLOSE GAME
43% @OTT
3353 miles
JAN 23**
CLOSE GAME
41% @MON
186 miles
FEB 2
LIKELY LOSS
20% @SJ
971 miles
FEB 4
LIKELY LOSS
32% @DAL
1441 miles
FEB 5**
LIKELY LOSS
29% @NSH
993 miles
FEB 7
LIKELY LOSS
34% CLB
--
FEB 9
CLOSE GAME
46% DAL
--
FEB 12
LIKELY LOSS
26% @LV
391 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 4 games is a record of 1-3 (42% chance). Their chances of winning 3 or more are 9.4%. Their chances of winning their next 4 are 1.1%. At #12 in the conference, they are behind the Canucks by 3 points. With a -0.47 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are in a battle with Blues in the conference. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Blues. There is only a -0.39 advantage in projected wins over their next 4 games.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Coyotes are the 16th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Coyotes are playing 4 games, traveling 19882 miles crossing 12 time zones. They rank #4 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

The latest over/under line is 6 but in simulations the average total points is quite different and you can visit Sportsline.com to find out what side of the line you want to be on.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.