LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Coyotes are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 2.5% chance of making the playoffs. On 10/18 they had a 0.1% chance before increasing to 63.1% on 3/16. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 58.2%. They have virtually no chance at getting home ice advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 7% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 1.65%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 2.4% (40/1 odds) and a 1.2% chance of winning it all (80/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 53% #4 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #8 Easiest

Coyotes' Season Forecast Changes

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-

At 36-30-6 the Coyotes are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 32 wins. In the process of beating expectations they have had 22 impressive wins where they were given

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.11 which ranks #19 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #17. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #16 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #20 in road games. Based on goal differential, they are trending up. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is +0.29 (#15 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The forecast for their next 5 games is not good. They have 3 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, and 6 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
MAR 18
LIKELY LOSS
25% @TB
2909 miles
MAR 21
CLOSE GAME
40% @FLA
3177 miles
MAR 23
CLOSE GAME
53% @NJ
3446 miles
MAR 24**
LIKELY LOSS
37% @NYI
18 miles
MAR 26
CLOSE GAME
43% CHI
--
MAR 29
CLOSE GAME
48% @COL
947 miles
MAR 31
CLOSE GAME
55% MIN
--
APR 2
LIKELY WIN
61% LA
--
APR 4
LIKELY LOSS
33% @LV
391 miles
APR 6
LIKELY LOSS
39% WPG
--

The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (36% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 7.3%. At #8 in the conference, they are behind the Stars by 2 points. With a -0.36 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Wild by one point. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Wild. There is only a 0.35 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Coyotes are the 4th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Coyotes are playing 7 games, traveling 24973 miles crossing 14 time zones. They rank #1 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Arizona Coyotes' next game. They are +235 underdogs and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.