LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

The Bruins are championship contenders but their chances are declining. In our pre-season forecast they had a 5.5% chance of winning it all. On 10/17 they had a 10.2% chance before dropping to 0.6% on 2/10. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 1.8%. Before the start of their 2 game winning streak they were at 1.3%. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 58% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 20.94%. Based on the odds, they have a 14.3% chance of winning the East (6/1) and a 7.7% chance of winning it all (12/1). In simulations they make the Finals 4.8% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #15 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #6 Easiest

Bruins' Championship Forecast Changes

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+

At 44-20-9 the Bruins are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 41.2 wins. They have 17 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 7 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game). They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 28-7-3 home record is +12% better than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 8-3-0 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 6.4 wins. The Bruins are a good team (in simulations) and won 55.8% of the simulations vs every other team playing on neutral ice with players available in the playoffs (#8 in the league). They have moved up from #11 in the league back on 2/8.

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is +0.51 which ranks #4 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #2. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #2 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #15 in road games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is +0.29 (#14 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The Bruins next 5 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 4 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
MAR 21
LIKELY WIN
61% @NJ
316 miles
MAR 23
CLOSE GAME
45% @FLA
1992 miles
MAR 25
LIKELY LOSS
32% @TB
1907 miles
MAR 27
LIKELY WIN
74% NYR
--
MAR 30
LIKELY WIN
61% FLA
--
MAR 31**
LIKELY WIN
62% @DET
986 miles
APR 2
CLOSE GAME
48% @CLB
1035 miles
APR 4
CLOSE GAME
55% @MIN
1792 miles
APR 6
CLOSE GAME
43% TB
--

The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (36% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 3.1%. With a -0.46 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Capitals by 4 points. With a -0.62 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find the gap between them closing.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Bruins are the 15th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Bruins are playing 7 games, traveling 11121 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #11 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Boston Bruins' next game. They are -240 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.