LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

The Bruins are championship contenders but their chances are declining. In our pre-season forecast they had a 5.5% chance of winning it all. On 10/17 they had a 10.2% chance before dropping to 1% on 1/17. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 1.1%. They are projected to finish #5 in the conference and have a 97% chance of making the playoffs. They have a shot (25%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 35% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 10.3%. Based on the odds, they have a 14.3% chance of winning the East (6/1) and a 7.7% chance of winning it all (12/1). In simulations they make the Finals 3% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #12 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #11 Toughest

Bruins' Championship Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

At 27-16-5 the Bruins are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 26.7 wins. They have 12 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 3 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game). They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 17-6-1 home record is +10% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (7-3-1, 64%) is better than their expected 59% win percentage. The Bruins are a good team (in simulations) and won 55.9% of the simulations vs every other team playing on neutral ice with players available in the playoffs (#11 in the league). Their peak rank was #4 in the league back on 10/21.

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is +0.31 which ranks #11 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #9. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #5 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #18 in road games. Based on goal differential, they are trending up. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is +0.71 (#5 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

According to Sportsline the Boston Bruins are -225 favorites but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.