|TEAM STATS||GF||GA||POWER PLAY|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The Bruins next 5 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (35% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 6.9%. At #3 in the conference, they are behind the Maple Leafs by 2 points. With a -0.44 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are in a battle with Blue Jackets in the conference. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Blue Jackets. There is only a 0.38 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Bruins are the 11th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Bruins are playing 7 games, traveling 14072 miles crossing 5 time zones. They rank #6 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
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The Boston Bruins' next game is on November 16. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
At 10-6-2 the Bruins are behind their money line projected win total of 10.3 wins. They have 5 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs just one good win. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 7-2-0 home record is +15% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (5-4-0, 56%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. The Bruins are a good team (in simulations) and won 58.8% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#5 in the league). They have moved up from #7 in the league back on 10/7.
Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is +0.5 which ranks #7 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #6. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #1 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #22 in road games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +0.17 (#16 over this stretch).
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
The Bruins are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 5.5% chance of winning it all. On 10/17 they had a 10.2% chance before dropping to 4.5% on 11/10. From the start of the season to now their chances are up to 6%. They have a 13.4% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #3 in the conference and have a 96% chance of making the playoffs. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (62%). They have a 57% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 28.2% chance of reaching the conference finals. Based on the odds, they have a 16.7% chance of winning the East (5/1) and a 9.1% chance of winning it all (10/1). In simulations they make the Finals 13.2% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Easier
Bruins' Championship Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|55||Acciari, Noel||RW||5-10||208||12/01/1991||No College|
|42||Backes, David||RW||6-3||221||05/01/1984||No College|
|37||Bergeron, Patrice||C||6-1||195||07/24/1985||No College|
|10||Bjork, Anders||RW||6-0||186||08/05/1996||No College|
|25||Carlo, Brandon||D||6-5||208||11/26/1996||No College|
|33||Chara, Zdeno||D||6-9||250||03/18/1977||No College|
|75||Clifton, Connor||D||5-11||175||04/28/1995||No College|
|74||DeBrusk, Jake||RW||6-0||188||10/17/1996||No College|
|23||Forsbacka Karlss, Jakob||C||6-1||184||10/31/1996||1||Boston U.|
|23||Forsbacka Karlsson, Jakob||C||6-1||184||10/31/1996||No College|
|48||Grzelcyk, Matt||D||5-9||174||01/05/1994||No College|
|41||Halak, Jaroslav||G||5-11||183||05/13/1985||No College|
|43||Heinen, Danton||LW||6-1||185||07/05/1995||No College|
|44||Kampfer, Steven||D||5-11||195||09/24/1988||No College|
|46||Krejci, David||C||6-0||188||04/28/1986||No College|
|47||Krug, Torey||D||5-9||186||04/12/1991||No College|
|52||Kuraly, Sean||C||6-2||213||01/20/1993||No College|
|79||Lauzon, Jeremy||D||6-1||204||04/28/1997||No College|
|63||Marchand, Brad||LW||5-9||181||05/11/1988||No College|
|27||Moore, John||D||6-2||210||11/19/1990||No College|
|20||Nordstrom, Joakim||LW||6-1||189||02/25/1992||No College|
|88||Pastrnak, David||RW||6-0||188||05/25/1996||No College|
|40||Rask, Tuukka||G||6-3||176||03/10/1987||No College|
|14||Wagner, Chris||LW||6-0||198||05/27/1991||No College|
|67||Zboril, Jakub||D||6-0||200||02/21/1997||No College|