SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-

At 10-6-2 the Sabres are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 8.3 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 5 good wins and one bad loss. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 6-2-1 home record is +16% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (5-2-2, 56%) is better than their expected 50% win percentage. In simulations where the Sabres played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 35.7% of the time (#31 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #31 winning 33.3%.

Their record is better than it should be. Their average goal differential is +0.06 which ranks #14 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #7. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #15 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #18 in home games. Based on goal differential, they are trending up. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +0.83 (#8 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

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NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The forecast for their next 6 games is not good. They are are the clear underdog in 9 out of the 6 games, and just one game where they are expected to be competitive.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
NOV 16
LIKELY LOSS
19% @WPG
1600 miles
NOV 17**
LIKELY LOSS
24% @MIN
629 miles
NOV 19
LIKELY LOSS
22% @PIT
286 miles
NOV 21
CLOSE GAME
42% PHI
--
NOV 23
CLOSE GAME
47% MON
--
NOV 24**
CLOSE GAME
40% @DET
348 miles
NOV 27
LIKELY LOSS
36% SJ
--
NOV 29
LIKELY LOSS
17% @TB
1693 miles
NOV 30**
LIKELY LOSS
28% @FLA
290 miles
DEC 3
LIKELY LOSS
22% @NSH
1009 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 2-4 (35% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 8.1%. At #5 in the conference, they are fighting with the Blue Jackets for positioning. With a -0.51 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Canadiens by one point. With a -0.52 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they may find the gap between them closing.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Sabres are the 10th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Sabres are playing 7 games, traveling 5192 miles crossing 3 time zones. They rank #24 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

The Buffalo Sabres' next game is on November 16. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)

Before the season, the Sabres were projected for 64.3 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 10/20 their projected points was 62.3 before increasing to 73.2 on 11/11. From the start of the season to now their projected point total is up to 74.5. They are projected to finish #5 in the conference and have a 2% chance of making the playoffs. They have a very slim chance (

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #4 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 47% #9 Easiest

Sabres' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.