Futures

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Sabres are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs. On 10/20 they had less than a 1% chance before increasing to 54% on 12/18. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 22.7%. They have a very slim chance (

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #12 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #4 Toughest

Sabres' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

At 24-17-6 the Sabres are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 21.3 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 14 good wins vs 4 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 14-6-3 home record is +11% better than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 3-6-1, 30%. In simulations where the Sabres played every other team (neutral ice in playoffs) they won just 38.5% of the time (#29 in the league). They have moved up from #31 in the league back on 10/6.

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.11 which ranks #16 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #14. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #15 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #18 in home games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is -0.67 (#23 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

According to Sportsline the Buffalo Sabres are +105 underdogs but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.