SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

At 31-32-9 the Sabres are behind their money line projected win total of 32.4 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 18 good wins vs 7 bad losses. They have won 31% of their road games and were expected to win 40%. At home they have a 56% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 50%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 2-8-1, 18%. In simulations where the Sabres played every other team (neutral ice in playoffs) they won just 35.6% of the time (#30 in the league). Their peak rank was #23 in the league back on 2/8.

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.49 which ranks #25 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #23. They are the #25 ranked team in goal differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is -1.86 (#31 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY

The Sabres next 5 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 2 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 47% chance of winning, and 8 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
MAR 20
LIKELY LOSS
36% TOR
--
MAR 23
CLOSE GAME
40% @MON
514 miles
MAR 25
CLOSE GAME
42% @NJ
457 miles
MAR 26**
LIKELY LOSS
39% @OTT
528 miles
MAR 28
CLOSE GAME
58% DET
--
MAR 30
LIKELY LOSS
32% @NYI
474 miles
MAR 31**
LIKELY LOSS
36% CLB
474 miles
APR 2
CLOSE GAME
41% NSH
--
APR 4
CLOSE GAME
45% OTT
--
APR 6
CLOSE GAME
51% @DET
348 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (34% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 11.2%. Their chances of winning their next 5 are 1.2%. With a -0.96 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Rangers by 2 points. With a +0.91 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Sabres are just the 28th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Sabres are playing 7 games, traveling 3606 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #29 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

The Buffalo Sabres' next game is on March 20. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)

Before the season, the Sabres were projected for 64.3 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 10/20 their projected points was 62.3 before increasing to 89.4 on 12/18. From the start of the season to now their projected point total is up significantly to 80.5.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 47% #8 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #1 Toughest

Sabres' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.