Futures

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

The Hurricanes are competing to make the playoffs but their chances are on a downward trend. In our pre-season forecast they had a 17.1% chance of making the playoffs. On 10/14 they had a 22% chance before dropping to 3.8% on 11/8. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 6.8%. They have a very slim chance (

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #5 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 48% #13 Easiest

Hurricanes' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: D

At 8-7-3 the Hurricanes are behind their money line projected win total of 9.7 wins. They have 6 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 2 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game). They have come up especially short at home. Their 4-3-2 home record is -17% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (4-4-2, 40%) is under their expected 56% win percentage. In simulations where the Hurricanes played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 40.7% of the time (#27 in the league). Their peak rank was #22 in the league back on 6/25.

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.22 which ranks #20 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #19. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #18 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #21 in home games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is -0.83 (#24 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The forecast for their next 5 games is not good. They have 4 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 47% chance of winning, and 6 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
NOV 17
CLOSE GAME
40% CLB
--
NOV 18**
CLOSE GAME
51% NJ
--
NOV 21
LIKELY LOSS
36% TOR
--
NOV 23
CLOSE GAME
43% FLA
--
NOV 24**
LIKELY LOSS
36% @NYI
683 miles
NOV 27
CLOSE GAME
41% @MON
1163 miles
NOV 30
CLOSE GAME
48% ANA
--
DEC 2
CLOSE GAME
49% @LA
3590 miles
DEC 5
LIKELY LOSS
30% @SJ
3830 miles
DEC 7
CLOSE GAME
48% @ANA
3562 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (36% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 10.3%. Their chances of winning their next 5 are 1.4%. At #10 in the conference, they are fighting with the Capitals for positioning. With a -1.07 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are in a battle with Flyers in the conference. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Flyers. There is only a -0.4 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Hurricanes are just the 28th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Hurricanes are playing 6 games, traveling 3692 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #27 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

The Carolina Hurricanes' next game is on November 17. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.