LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Hurricanes are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 17.1% chance of making the playoffs. On 12/31 they had a 0.9% chance before increasing to 89.2% on 3/17. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 89%. They have a 1.6% chance of winning their division. They have virtually no chance at getting home ice advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 19% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 4.95%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the East at 4.8% (20/1 odds) and a 2.4% chance of winning it all (40/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 53% #4 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #8 Easiest

Hurricanes' Season Forecast Changes

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+

At 39-25-7 the Hurricanes are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 37.6 wins. They have 18 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 15 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 54% of their road games and were expected to win 49%. At home they have a 56% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 58%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 7-2-1 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 5.4 wins. In simulations, the Hurricanes are a below average team and won 50% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on neutral ice with players available in the playoffs (#16 in the league). They have moved up from #27 in the league back on 12/23.

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is +0.24 which ranks #12 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #10. They are the #10 ranked team in goal differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #12 ranked team among home teams. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is -0.67 (#24 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY

The Hurricanes next 6 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 6 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
MAR 19
CLOSE GAME
40% PIT
--
MAR 21
LIKELY LOSS
34% TB
--
MAR 23
LIKELY WIN
62% MIN
--
MAR 24**
CLOSE GAME
54% MON
--
MAR 26
LIKELY LOSS
38% @WAS
376 miles
MAR 28
CLOSE GAME
44% WAS
--
MAR 30
CLOSE GAME
50% PHI
--
MAR 31**
CLOSE GAME
40% @PIT
528 miles
APR 2
LIKELY LOSS
33% @TOR
875 miles
APR 4
LIKELY WIN
62% NJ
--

The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (32% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 6.2%. At #7 in the conference, they are behind the Penguins by 3 points. There is only a 0.19 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games so we do not expect them to pick up ground in the conference. They are ahead of the Blue Jackets by one point. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Blue Jackets. Their projected wins (2.73) over the next 6 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Hurricanes are just the 29th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Hurricanes are playing 8 games, traveling 1280 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #31 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Carolina Hurricanes' next game. They are -132 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.