LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Flames are championship contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 7/25 they had less than a 1% chance before increasing to 11.7% on 2/20. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 11.2%. Before the start of their 3 game winning streak they were at 7.3%. They have a 72% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #1 in the conference and have a 96% chance of making the playoffs. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 79% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 47.07%. Based on the odds, they have a 22.2% chance of winning the West (7/2) and an 11.1% chance of winning it all (8/1). In simulations they make the Finals 25.4% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 46% #1 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #13 Toughest

Flames' Championship Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A

At 37-16-7 the Flames are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 32 wins. They have won 58% of their road games and were expected to win 50%. At home they have a 66% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 59%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 4-3-2, 44%. In the pre-season, the Flames were expected to be a below average team (#22) in power rank, but they have greatly exceeded expectations. The Flames perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 60.4% of the time (#5 in the league). They have moved up from #25 in the league back on 6/25.

Their average goal differential is +0.78 which ranks #2 in the league, which is the same as how they rank in points. They are the #3 ranked team in goal differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #5 ranked team among home teams. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is 0 (#17 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT

The forecast for their next 5 games is very good. They have 6 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and no games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
FEB 22
LIKELY WIN
70% ANA
--
FEB 24
CLOSE GAME
56% @OTT
2868 miles
FEB 26
CLOSE GAME
58% @NYI
3266 miles
FEB 27**
LIKELY WIN
62% @NJ
18 miles
MAR 2
LIKELY WIN
67% MIN
--
MAR 4
CLOSE GAME
51% TOR
--
MAR 6
CLOSE GAME
58% @LV
1665 miles
MAR 7**
LIKELY WIN
74% @ARI
391 miles
MAR 10
LIKELY WIN
63% LV
--
MAR 12
LIKELY WIN
68% NJ
--

The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (34% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 9.5%. At #1 in the conference, they are ahead of the Sharks by 3 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Sharks. There is only a -0.44 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Flames are the 17th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Flames are playing 8 games, traveling 22385 miles crossing 13 time zones. They rank #4 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Calgary Flames' next game. They are -265 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.