LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Flames are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 28.3% chance of making the playoffs. On 10/5 they had a 19.9% chance before increasing to 65.6% on 11/7. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 60%. They have a 10.5% chance of winning their division. They have a shot (14%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 16% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 4.4%. Based on the odds, they have a 6.2% chance of winning the West (15/1) and a 3.2% chance of winning it all (30/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #13 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 52% #11 Toughest

Flames' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B

At 10-7-1 the Flames are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 8.9 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 3 good wins but they also have 3 bad losses. They have won 55% of their road games and were expected to win 47%. At home they have a 57% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 53%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-4-1, 55%) is better than their expected 50% win percentage. In simulations, the Flames are a below average team and won 47.1% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#17 in the league). They have moved up from #25 in the league back on 6/25.

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is +0.06 which ranks #12 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #11. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #8 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #26 in home games. Their average goal differential in their past 5 games is +0.2 which ranks them #15 over this stretch, slightly worse than the season overall.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 6 games is generally good. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 3 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
NOV 15
LIKELY WIN
64% MON
--
NOV 17
CLOSE GAME
55% EDM
--
NOV 19
CLOSE GAME
47% LV
--
NOV 21
CLOSE GAME
45% WPG
--
NOV 23
LIKELY LOSS
36% @LV
1665 miles
NOV 25
CLOSE GAME
58% @ARI
1954 miles
NOV 28
CLOSE GAME
54% DAL
--
NOV 30
LIKELY WIN
62% LA
--
DEC 2
CLOSE GAME
47% @CHI
2248 miles
DEC 4
CLOSE GAME
45% @CLB
2690 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (31% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 11.2%. Their chances of winning their next 6 are 1.8%. At #6 in the conference, they are behind the Canucks by one point. With a +0.67 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are in a battle with Avalanche in the conference. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Avalanche. There is only a 0.38 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Flames are the 12th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Flames are playing 7 games, traveling 7238 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #17 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

According to Sportsline the Calgary Flames are -150 favorites but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.