LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Blue Jackets are championship contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 10/25 they had a 0.3% chance before increasing to 2.2% on 12/8. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 1.7%. Before the start of their 4 game winning streak they were at 1.1%. They have an 18.8% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #4 in the conference and have a 99% chance of making the playoffs. They have a shot (42%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 42% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 14.2%. Based on the odds, they have an 11.1% chance of winning the East (8/1) and a 5.9% chance of winning it all (16/1). In simulations they make the Finals 4.4% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 53% #2 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 47% #1 Easiest

Blue Jackets' Championship Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A

At 28-15-3 the Blue Jackets are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 24.8 wins. They have 13 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 6 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game). They have been better than expected on the road. Their 14-7-1 road record is +16% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (7-3-0, 70%) is better than their expected 53% win percentage. The Blue Jackets are a good team (in simulations) and won 56.1% of the simulations vs every other team playing on neutral ice with players available in the playoffs (#10 in the league). This is their peak for the season. Back on 6/11 they were at 51%.

Their record is better than it should be. Their average goal differential is +0.28 which ranks #12 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #6. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #8 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #13 in home games. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is +0.29 which ranks them #13 over this stretch, slightly worse than the season overall.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 2 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT

The forecast for their next 2 games is very good. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
JAN 18
LIKELY WIN
71% MON
--
JAN 19**
CLOSE GAME
52% @MIN
996 miles
JAN 29
LIKELY WIN
73% BUF
--
JAN 31
CLOSE GAME
41% @WPG
1564 miles
FEB 2
LIKELY WIN
65% STL
--
FEB 5
CLOSE GAME
48% @COL
1875 miles
FEB 7
LIKELY WIN
66% @ARI
2693 miles
FEB 9
CLOSE GAME
47% @LV
2838 miles
FEB 12
CLOSE GAME
48% WAS
--
FEB 14
CLOSE GAME
59% NYI
--

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Blue Jackets are just the 27th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few days, the Blue Jackets are playing 4 games, traveling 3556 miles crossing 3 time zones. They rank #20 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

According to Sportsline the Columbus Blue Jackets are -161 favorites but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.