Futures

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)

The Avalanche are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 36% chance of making the playoffs. On 8/3 they had a 21.6% chance before increasing to 71.7% on 10/23. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 66.6%. They have a shot (13%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. They have a 20% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 6% chance of reaching the conference finals. Based on the odds, they have a 6.2% chance of winning the West (15/1) and a 3.2% chance of winning it all (30/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #8 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 55% #1 Toughest

Avalanche's Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

At 9-6-4 the Avalanche are behind their money line projected win total of 9.4 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 7 good wins vs 3 bad losses. They have won 45% of their road games and were expected to win 46%. At home they have a 50% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 52%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 3-4-2, 33%. In simulations, the Avalanche are a below average team and won 49.6% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#16 in the league). They have moved up from #24 in the league back on 7/25.

Their record should be better. Their average goal differential is +0.63 which ranks #5 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #12. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #4 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #10 in home games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 5 games is -0.2 (#18 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The Avalanche next 6 game forecast looks like a mix of 'clouds and sun'. They have 5 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, and 4 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
NOV 18
CLOSE GAME
48% @ANA
822 miles
NOV 21
CLOSE GAME
55% @LA
1338 miles
NOV 23
CLOSE GAME
56% @ARI
947 miles
NOV 24**
CLOSE GAME
56% DAL
947 miles
NOV 27
LIKELY LOSS
32% @NSH
1646 miles
NOV 28**
CLOSE GAME
42% PIT
1646 miles
NOV 30
CLOSE GAME
55% STL
--
DEC 2
CLOSE GAME
54% @DET
1860 miles
DEC 4
LIKELY LOSS
30% @PIT
2125 miles
DEC 6
LIKELY LOSS
40% @FLA
2743 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (31% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 8.2%. Their chances of winning their next 6 are 1.3%. At #8 in the conference, they are fighting with the Canucks for positioning. With a +0.87 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Ducks by 2 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Ducks. There is only a 0.27 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Avalanche are the 12th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Avalanche are playing 8 games, traveling 10544 miles crossing 7 time zones. They rank #8 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Colorado Avalanche's next game. They are -132 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.