SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their odds to win it all are 12/1, 7.7% (#4). Their simulation based win percentage (6.5%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. In simulations, they win the West 14.6% of the time and are not a good value at 5/1, 16.7%. The Avalanche are averaging 98 points per sim which is essentially the same as their futures line of 97.5 points. At -310 the Avalanche are a good value to make the playoffs with a 84.1% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 3/1, 25%. They win the division in 24.4% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the West.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Oddsmakers expected them to win 42 based on their money line game odds. Their 38-30-14 record last season failed to meet expectations. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-1030) based on a 100 unit risk per game. They went 42-40 on puck lines (-7 loss). They went over 41 times and came in under 41 times. They are favored in their upcoming game vs the Calgary Flames. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record should be slightly better. Since 10/2/2018 their average goal differential is +0.19 (includes playoff games) which ranks #15 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #17. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #10 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #14 in home games.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Philipp Grubauer who is projected to be the #12 Goalie. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.