SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: D

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 31-29-12 Avalanche 'should have' 37 wins. They have 20 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 16 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game). They have come up especially short at home. Their 16-14-6 home record is -13% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (4-5-1, 40%) is under their expected 57% win percentage. In simulations, the Avalanche are a below average team and won 48.5% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on neutral ice with players available in the playoffs (#18 in the league). They have moved up from #24 in the league back on 7/20.

Their record should be better. Their average goal differential is +0.08 which ranks #15 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #22. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #11 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #19 in home games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is -0.33 (#21 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 5 games is generally good. They have 3 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, 5 more 'toss up' games, and 2 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
MAR 19
CLOSE GAME
55% @MIN
1136 miles
MAR 21
CLOSE GAME
54% @DAL
1067 miles
MAR 23
CLOSE GAME
53% CHI
--
MAR 24**
CLOSE GAME
47% @CHI
1477 miles
MAR 27
CLOSE GAME
51% LV
--
MAR 29
CLOSE GAME
52% ARI
--
APR 1
CLOSE GAME
52% @STL
1282 miles
APR 2**
CLOSE GAME
51% EDM
1282 miles
APR 4
LIKELY LOSS
36% WPG
--
APR 6
LIKELY LOSS
35% @SJ
1493 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (32% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 4.4%. At #10 in the conference, they are behind the Wild by 3 points. They have a +1 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games and could narrow the gap. They are ahead of the Blackhawks by one point. With a -0.53 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find the gap between them closing.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Avalanche are the 14th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Avalanche are playing 7 games, traveling 7506 miles crossing 6 time zones. They rank #16 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Colorado Avalanche's next game. They are +106 underdogs and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

The Avalanche are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 36% chance of making the playoffs. On 8/3 they had a 21.6% chance before increasing to 88.8% on 11/30. From the start of the season to now their chances are down to 32.6%. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 3% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 1.09%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 2.4% (40/1 odds) and a 1.2% chance of winning it all (80/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #16 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #9 Toughest

Avalanche's Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.