NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The Stars next 6 game forecast looks rough, to say the least. They have 2 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, and 7 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
FEB 21
LIKELY LOSS
36% STL
--
FEB 23
CLOSE GAME
46% CAR
--
FEB 24**
LIKELY LOSS
36% @CHI
1294 miles
FEB 26
LIKELY LOSS
30% @LV
1723 miles
FEB 28
CLOSE GAME
43% @LA
1995 miles
MAR 2
LIKELY LOSS
39% @STL
882 miles
MAR 5
LIKELY WIN
62% NYR
--
MAR 7
CLOSE GAME
47% COL
--
MAR 9
CLOSE GAME
57% CHI
--
MAR 12
CLOSE GAME
43% @BUF
1929 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 2-4 (33% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 16.3%. With a -0.76 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Blackhawks by 2 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Blackhawks. There is only a -0.37 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Stars are the 15th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Stars are playing 8 games, traveling 11788 miles crossing 8 time zones. They rank #12 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

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According to Sportsline the Dallas Stars are +105 underdogs but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

At 29-25-5 the Stars are behind their money line projected win total of 29.3 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 14 good wins vs 12 bad losses. They have won 37% of their road games and were expected to win 45%. At home they have a 62% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 55%. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 34.6% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight. In simulations where the Stars played every other team (neutral ice in playoffs) they won just 46.2% of the time (#20 in the league). Their peak rank was #12 in the league back on 11/5.

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.1 which ranks #17 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #16. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #10 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #23 in road games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is -1.67 (#29 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

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LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

The Stars are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 61.9% chance of making the playoffs. On 10/23 they had a 39.7% chance before increasing to 75.5% on 1/6. From the start of the season to now their chances are down to 58.5%. Before the start of their 3 game losing streak they were at 72.6%. They have virtually no chance at getting home ice advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 8% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 1.48%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 2.4% (40/1 odds) and a 1.2% chance of winning it all (80/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #9 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #1 Toughest

Stars' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.