Futures

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 6 games is a mixed bag. They have 3 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, 3 more 'toss up' games, and 4 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
NOV 16
CLOSE GAME
48% BOS
--
NOV 18
CLOSE GAME
42% @NYI
2210 miles
NOV 19**
CLOSE GAME
48% @NYR
8 miles
NOV 21
LIKELY LOSS
36% @PIT
1723 miles
NOV 23
LIKELY WIN
71% OTT
--
NOV 24**
CLOSE GAME
44% @COL
1067 miles
NOV 27
CLOSE GAME
49% @EDM
2664 miles
NOV 28**
CLOSE GAME
46% @CGY
282 miles
DEC 1
CLOSE GAME
56% @VAN
2846 miles
DEC 3
CLOSE GAME
55% EDM
--

The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (33% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 8.8%. Their chances of winning their next 6 are 1.3%. At #8 in the conference, they are behind the Avalanche by one point. With a +0.24 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Ducks by one point. With a +0.52 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Stars are just the 28th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Stars are playing 8 games, traveling 22220 miles crossing 11 time zones. They rank #3 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

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The Dallas Stars' next game is on November 16. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

At 9-7-2 the Stars are behind their money line projected win total of 9.2 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 5 good wins vs 4 bad losses. Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 3-4-1 road record is -10% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-3-2, 55%) is better than their expected 48% win percentage. The Stars should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 50.6% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#15 in the league). They have moved up from #17 in the league back on 6/25.

Their record should be better. Their average goal differential is +0.06 which ranks #12 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #15. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #9 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #21 in road games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is -0.43 (#21 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

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LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

The Stars are contenders to win the conference, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had under a 1% chance of reaching the Stanley Cup Finals. On 6/25 they had a 0.6% chance before increasing to 3.7% on 10/16. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 2.3%. They will be fighting for a playoff spot (currently projected to finish #8 in the conference) and have a 67% chance of making the playoffs. They have a shot (14%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. They have a 22% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 7.1% chance of reaching the conference finals. Based on the odds, they have a 6.2% chance of winning the West (15/1) and a 3.2% chance of winning it all (30/1). In simulations they win the championship 0.7% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #13 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 54% #3 Toughest

Stars' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.