Dallas
Stars
Stadium American Airlines Center
29-25-5 Overall | 7-7-2 CENTRAL 4th
TEAM STATSGFGAPOWER PLAY
Stars148154 20.39%
Schedule
Regular season
Fri  2/1
vs
Wild
W3-1
Sat  2/2
@
Predators
W3-1
Mon  2/4
vs
Coyotes
W5-4
Thu  2/7
@
Predators
L / OT2-3
Sat  2/9
@
Coyotes
L2-3
Tue  2/12
@
Panthers
W3-0
Thu  2/14
@
Lightning
L0-6
Sat  2/16
@
Hurricanes
L0-3
Tue  2/19
vs
Predators
L3-5
Thu  2/21
vs
Blues
8:30pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The Stars next 6 game forecast looks rough, to say the least. They have 2 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, and 7 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

FEB 21
LIKELY LOSS
36% STL
--
FEB 23
CLOSE GAME
46% CAR
--
FEB 24**
LIKELY LOSS
36% @CHI
1294 miles
FEB 26
LIKELY LOSS
30% @LV
1723 miles
FEB 28
CLOSE GAME
43% @LA
1995 miles
MAR 2
LIKELY LOSS
39% @STL
882 miles
MAR 5
LIKELY WIN
62% NYR
--
MAR 7
CLOSE GAME
47% COL
--
MAR 9
CLOSE GAME
57% CHI
--
MAR 12
CLOSE GAME
43% @BUF
1929 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 2-4 (33% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 16.3%. With a -0.76 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Blackhawks by 2 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Blackhawks. There is only a -0.37 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Stars are the 15th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Stars are playing 8 games, traveling 11788 miles crossing 8 time zones. They rank #12 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

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According to Sportsline the Dallas Stars are +105 underdogs but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

At 29-25-5 the Stars are behind their money line projected win total of 29.3 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 14 good wins vs 12 bad losses. They have won 37% of their road games and were expected to win 45%. At home they have a 62% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 55%. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 34.6% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight. In simulations where the Stars played every other team (neutral ice in playoffs) they won just 46.2% of the time (#20 in the league). Their peak rank was #12 in the league back on 11/5.

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.1 which ranks #17 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #16. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #10 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #23 in road games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is -1.67 (#29 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

Sportsline not only has a pick on every NHL game and line our Experts provide winning Daily Fantasy Optimal Lineups every day.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

The Stars are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 61.9% chance of making the playoffs. On 10/23 they had a 39.7% chance before increasing to 75.5% on 1/6. From the start of the season to now their chances are down to 58.5%. Before the start of their 3 game losing streak they were at 72.6%. They have virtually no chance at getting home ice advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 8% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 1.48%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 2.4% (40/1 odds) and a 1.2% chance of winning it all (80/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #9 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #1 Toughest

Stars' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
14 Benn, Jamie LW6-220507/18/1989No College
30 Bishop, Ben G6-721511/21/1986No College
5 Carrick, Connor D5-1119204/13/1994No College
17 Cogliano, Andrew LW5-1017706/14/1987No College
15 Comeau, Blake RW6-120002/18/1986No College
16 Dickinson, Jason C6-220007/04/1995No College
12 Faksa, Radek C6-322001/09/1994No College
42 Fedun, Taylor D6-120106/04/1988No College
4 Heiskanen, Miro D6-118507/18/1999No College
24 Hintz, Roope C6-321511/17/1996No College
6 Honka, Julius D5-1118012/03/1995No College
13 Janmark, Mattias LW6-119512/08/1992No College
35 Khudobin, Anton G5-1120005/07/1986No College
3 Klingberg, John D6-218008/14/1992No College
38 L'Esperance, Joel C6-220808/18/1995No College
23 Lindell, Esa D6-321505/23/1994No College
43 Nichushkin, Valeri LW6-421003/04/1995No College
2 Oleksiak, Jamie D6-725512/21/1992No College
45 Polak, Roman D6-224004/28/1986No College
47 Radulov, Alexander RW6-120507/05/1986No College
25 Ritchie, Brett RW6-422007/01/1993No College
91 Seguin, Tyler C6-120001/31/1992No College
90 Spezza, Jason C6-321506/13/1983No College