SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-

At 7-8-2 the Red Wings are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 6.7 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 5 good wins vs 0 bad losses. They have won 38% of their road games and were expected to win 34%. At home they have a 44% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 44%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 7-3-0 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 4.2 wins. In simulations where the Red Wings played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 38.7% of the time (#30 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #29 winning 38.6%.

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.82 which ranks #29 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #27. They are the #27 ranked team in goal differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams. Based on goal differential, they are trending up. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +0.5 (#12 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

Stream Detroit games with SlingTV

NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The forecast for their next 4 games is not good. They have 2 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 47% chance of winning, and 8 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
NOV 13
CLOSE GAME
49% ARI
--
NOV 15
LIKELY LOSS
38% @OTT
661 miles
NOV 17
LIKELY LOSS
38% @NJ
761 miles
NOV 21
LIKELY LOSS
37% BOS
--
NOV 23
LIKELY LOSS
25% @WAS
636 miles
NOV 24**
CLOSE GAME
60% BUF
636 miles
NOV 26
CLOSE GAME
41% CLB
--
NOV 28
CLOSE GAME
41% STL
--
DEC 1
LIKELY LOSS
25% @BOS
986 miles
DEC 2**
LIKELY LOSS
40% COL
986 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 4 games is a record of 2-2 (36% chance). Their chances of winning their next 4 are 2.6%. At #14 in the conference, they are behind the Penguins by one point. With a -1.52 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Panthers by one point. With a -0.64 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they may find the gap between them closing.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Red Wings are just the 26th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Red Wings are playing 7 games, traveling 4116 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #25 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

The Detroit Red Wings' next game is on November 13. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

Before the season, the Red Wings were projected for 72.1 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 10/7 their projected points was up to 73.1 before dropping to 65.4 on 10/27. Their current projected point total is 73. The playoffs are not likely with their 1.5% chance and a projected #14 finish in the conference. They have a very slim chance (

Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #9 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #16 Easiest

Red Wings' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.