Futures

NEXT 3 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The Red Wings next 3 game forecast looks rough, to say the least. They have 2 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 47% chance of winning, and 8 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
JAN 18
LIKELY LOSS
26% @CGY
2535 miles
JAN 20
CLOSE GAME
41% @VAN
3164 miles
JAN 22
LIKELY LOSS
35% @EDM
2564 miles
FEB 1
LIKELY LOSS
33% TOR
--
FEB 2**
LIKELY LOSS
38% @OTT
661 miles
FEB 7
LIKELY LOSS
35% LV
--
FEB 9
CLOSE GAME
52% @BUF
348 miles
FEB 10**
CLOSE GAME
46% @CHI
732 miles
FEB 12
LIKELY LOSS
26% @NSH
758 miles
FEB 14
CLOSE GAME
48% OTT
--

The most likely scenario over the next 3 games is a record of 1-2 (46% chance). Their chances of winning their next 3 are 4.2%. They have a +0.78 advantage in projected wins over their next 3 games and could narrow the gap. They are in a battle with Devils in the conference. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Devils. Their projected wins (1.02) over the next 3 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Red Wings are the 11th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few days, the Red Wings are playing 4 games, traveling 13991 miles crossing 12 time zones. They rank #6 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

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Sportsline has a free pick on the Detroit Red Wings' next game. They are +214 underdogs and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

At 18-23-7 the Red Wings are behind their money line projected win total of 19 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 13 good wins and one bad loss. They have won 36% of their road games and were expected to win 34%. At home they have a 38% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 45%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (3-6-1, 30%) is under their expected 39% win percentage. In simulations where the Red Wings played every other team (neutral ice in playoffs) they won just 40% of the time (#25 in the league). They have moved up from #30 in the league back on 10/25.

Their record should be better. Their average goal differential is -0.46 which ranks #23 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #27. They are the #24 ranked team in goal differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #26 ranked team among home teams. Based on goal differential, they are trending up. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +0.33 (#11 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

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LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

Before the season, the Red Wings were projected for 72.1 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 10/27 their projected points was 65.4 before increasing to 78.6 on 12/7. Their current projected point total is 73.2. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the East at 0.4% (250/1 odds) and a 0.2% chance of winning it all (500/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #12 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #4 Toughest

Red Wings' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.