Edmonton
Oilers
Stadium Rogers Place
24-29-6 Overall | 7-11-2 PACIFIC 7th
TEAM STATSGFGAPOWER PLAY
Oilers165198 21.71%
Schedule
Regular season
Sat  2/2
@
Flyers
L / OT4-5
Sun  2/3
@
Canadiens
L / OT3-4
Tue  2/5
vs
Blackhawks
L2-6
Thu  2/7
@
Wild
W4-1
Sat  2/9
vs
Sharks
L2-5
Wed  2/13
@
Penguins
L1-3
Fri  2/15
@
Hurricanes
L1-3
Sat  2/16
@
Islanders
L2-5
Tue  2/19
vs
Coyotes
L / SO2-3
Thu  2/21
vs
Islanders
9:00pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

The Oilers are competing to make the playoffs but their chances are on a downward trend. In our pre-season forecast they had a 22.2% chance of making the playoffs. On 12/15 they had a 72.8% chance before dropping to 6.7% on 2/20. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 5.1%. Before the start of their 5 game losing streak they were at 24.1%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 0.7% (150/1 odds) and a 0.3% chance of winning it all (300/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #9 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #1 Toughest

Oilers' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 24-29-6 Oilers 'should have' 28 wins. They have 13 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 8 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game). They have come up especially short at home. Their 12-15-2 home record is -11% lower than their expected win percentage. Losers of 5 in a row they have a 19.1% chance of seeing that extend to 7 straight. In simulations where the Oilers played every other team (neutral ice in playoffs) they won just 42.2% of the time (#25 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #23 winning 45.8%.

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.59 which ranks #29 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #27. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #25 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #29 in home games. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is -1.17 which ranks them #27 over this stretch, slightly better than the season overall.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The Oilers next 6 game forecast looks rough, to say the least. They have 5 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 47% chance of winning, and 5 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

FEB 21
CLOSE GAME
47% NYI
--
FEB 23
LIKELY WIN
64% ANA
--
FEB 25
LIKELY LOSS
32% @NSH
2831 miles
FEB 27
LIKELY LOSS
27% @TOR
2710 miles
FEB 28**
CLOSE GAME
42% @OTT
330 miles
MAR 2
LIKELY LOSS
36% @CLB
2741 miles
MAR 4
CLOSE GAME
47% @BUF
2794 miles
MAR 7
CLOSE GAME
49% VAN
--
MAR 9
LIKELY LOSS
32% TOR
--
MAR 11
CLOSE GAME
47% NYR
--

The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 2-4 (30% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 18.3%. At #14 in the conference, they are behind the Ducks by 3 points. They have a +0.26 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games and could narrow the gap. They are ahead of the Kings by 2 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Kings. There is only a 0.26 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Oilers are the 6th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Oilers are playing 8 games, traveling 27818 miles crossing 18 time zones. They rank #1 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Edmonton Oilers' next game. They are +110 underdogs and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
83 Benning, Matt D6-120305/25/1994No College
28 Brodziak, Kyle C6-220505/25/1984No College
12 Cave, Colby C6-120012/26/1994No College
39 Chiasson, Alex RW6-420810/01/1990No College
43 Currie, Josh C5-1017210/29/1992No College
29 Draisaitl, Leon LW6-220810/27/1995No College
89 Gagner, Sam C5-1120008/10/1989No College
5 Gravel, Kevin D6-421203/06/1992No College
44 Kassian, Zack RW6-321101/24/1991No College
77 Klefbom, Oscar D6-321607/20/1993No College
19 Koskinen, Mikko G6-720207/18/1988No College
6 Larsson, Adam D6-320811/12/1992No College
27 Lucic, Milan LW6-323106/07/1988No College
24 Malone, Brad LW6-121305/20/1989No College
97 McDavid, Connor C6-119301/13/1997No College
93 Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan C6-018404/12/1993No College
25 Nurse, Darnell D6-422102/04/1995No College
15 Petrovic, Alexander D6-421603/03/1992No College
8 Rattie, Ty RW6-018302/05/1993No College
22 Rieder, Tobias LW5-1118601/10/1993No College
4 Russell, Kris D5-1017005/02/1987No College
2 Sekera, Andrej D6-020006/08/1986No College
32 Stolarz, Anthony G6-621001/20/1994No College