Edmonton
Oilers
Stadium Rogers Place
9-9-1 Overall | 0-1-0 PACIFIC 5th
TEAM STATSGFGAPOWER PLAY
Oilers5460 19.05%
Schedule
Regular season
Thu  11/1
vs
Blackhawks
W4-0
Sat  11/3
@
Red Wings
W4-3
Mon  11/5
@
Capitals
L2-4
Tue  11/6
@
Lightning
L2-5
Thu  11/8
@
Panthers
L1-4
Sun  11/11
vs
Avalanche
L1-4
Tue  11/13
vs
Canadiens
W6-2
Sat  11/17
@
Flames
L2-4
Sun  11/18
vs
Golden Knights
RSN8:00pm
Tue  11/20
@
Sharks
NBCS10:30pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Oilers are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 22.2% chance of making the playoffs. On 10/13 they had an 18.3% chance before increasing to 61.5% on 11/4. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 51%. They have a 7.5% chance of winning their division. They have a shot (10%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 12% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 2.8%. Based on the odds, they have a 6.2% chance of winning the West (15/1) and a 3.2% chance of winning it all (30/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #5 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 54% #3 Toughest

Oilers' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

At 9-8-1 the Oilers are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 8.6 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 3 good wins but they also have 3 bad losses. They have won 50% of their road games and were expected to win 45%. At home they have a 50% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 51%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-5-1, 50%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. In simulations where the Oilers played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 46.4% of the time (#20 in the league). They have moved up from #23 in the league back on 10/20.

Their record is better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.22 which ranks #20 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #17. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #14 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #21 in road games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is -1 (#25 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 6 games is a mixed bag. They have 2 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, 5 more 'toss up' games, and 3 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

NOV 17
CLOSE GAME
50% @CGY
282 miles
NOV 18**
CLOSE GAME
49% LV
282 miles
NOV 20
LIKELY LOSS
32% @SJ
1917 miles
NOV 23
CLOSE GAME
49% @ANA
2224 miles
NOV 25
CLOSE GAME
54% @LA
2203 miles
NOV 27
CLOSE GAME
51% DAL
--
NOV 29
LIKELY WIN
60% LA
--
DEC 1
CLOSE GAME
49% LV
--
DEC 3
CLOSE GAME
45% @DAL
2664 miles
DEC 5
CLOSE GAME
46% @STL
2427 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (30% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 8.6%. At #11 in the conference, they are fighting with the Blackhawks for positioning. With a +0.84 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are in a battle with Coyotes in the conference. With a +0.99 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Oilers are the 19th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Oilers are playing 8 games, traveling 12970 miles crossing 6 time zones. They rank #7 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Edmonton Oilers' next game. They are +115 underdogs and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
83 Benning, Matthew D6-119505/25/19942Northeastern
28 Brodziak, Kyle C6-221205/25/198413No College
91 Caggiula, Drake C5-1018506/20/19942North Dakota
39 Chiasson, Alex RW6-420810/01/19906Boston U.
29 Draisaitl, Leon C6-121410/27/19954No College
13 Garrison, Jason D6-222311/13/198410Minnesota-Duluth
5 Gravel, Kevin D6-421203/06/19923St. Cloud State
44 Kassian, Zack RW6-320701/24/19917No College
16 Khaira, Jujhar LW6-421908/13/19943Michigan Tech
77 Klefbom, Oscar D6-322007/20/19935No College
19 Koskinen, Mikko G6-620207/18/19881No College
6 Larsson, Adam D6-321511/12/19927No College
27 Lucic, Milan LW6-323606/07/198811No College
65 Marody, Cooper C6-019012/20/19960Michigan
97 McDavid, Connor C6-119001/13/19973No College
93 Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan C6-019004/12/19937No College
25 Nurse, Darnell D6-422002/04/19954No College
8 Rattie, Ty RW6-019502/05/19935No College
22 Rieder, Tobias C5-1118801/10/19934No College
4 Russell, Kris D5-1017005/02/198711No College
52 Russell, Patrick RW6-120301/04/19930St. Cloud State
2 Sekera, Andrej D6-020006/08/198612No College
23 Spooner, Ryan C5-1119101/30/19926No College
18 Strome, Ryan C6-119807/11/19935No College
33 Talbot, Cam G6-319907/05/19875Alabama-Huntsville