LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Panthers are contenders to win the conference and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had under a 1% chance of reaching the Stanley Cup Finals. On 10/30 they had a 0.3% chance before increasing to 2.2% on 11/12. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 2.2%. Before the start of their 5 game winning streak they were at 0.4%. They have a 1.7% chance of winning their division. The playoffs are not likely with their 71.4% chance and a projected #13 finish in the conference. They have a shot (15%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 23% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 7.5%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the East at 3.2% (30/1 odds) and a 1.6% chance of winning it all (60/1). In simulations they win the championship 0.6% of the time.

Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Hard

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #10 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 53% #8 Toughest

Panthers' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+

At 7-5-3 the Panthers are behind their money line projected win total of 7.9 wins. They have 4 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 2 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game). They have come up especially short at home. Their 3-3-1 home record is -17% lower than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 6-3-0 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 4.8 wins. The Panthers should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 51.9% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#12 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #13 winning 50.6%.

Their record should be better. Their average goal differential is +0.27 which ranks #9 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #13. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #10 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #13 in home games. Based on goal differential, they are trending up. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +1.67 (#2 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 6 games is generally good. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
NOV 15
CLOSE GAME
46% @CLB
1557 miles
NOV 17
CLOSE GAME
49% @NYR
1726 miles
NOV 19
CLOSE GAME
50% @OTT
2166 miles
NOV 21
LIKELY LOSS
37% @TB
290 miles
NOV 23
CLOSE GAME
51% @CAR
1084 miles
NOV 24**
LIKELY WIN
68% CHI
1084 miles
NOV 26
LIKELY WIN
64% NJ
--
NOV 28
LIKELY WIN
63% ANA
--
NOV 30
LIKELY WIN
72% BUF
--
DEC 1**
CLOSE GAME
48% TB
--

The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (31% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 10.5%. Their chances of winning their next 6 are 1.6%. At #13 in the conference, they are behind the Red Wings by one point. With a +0.99 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are in a battle with Senators in the conference. With a +0.93 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Panthers are the 16th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Panthers are playing 8 games, traveling 12089 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #12 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

The Florida Panthers' next game is on November 15. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.