SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 32-25-5 Golden Knights 'should have' 35 wins. They have 18 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 3 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 47% of their road games and were expected to win 51%. At home they have a 57% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 61%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 3-6-1, 30%. Golden Knights fans have to be disappointed that they have fallen well short of their pre-season expectations where they were #2 in the league in power ranking. The Golden Knights should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 51.9% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on neutral ice with players available in the playoffs (#13 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #2 winning 62.5%.

Their record should be slightly better. Their average goal differential is +0.11 which ranks #14 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #15. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #7 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #18 in road games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is -0.71 (#21 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

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NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT

The forecast for their next 5 games is very good. They have 5 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 3 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
FEB 22
CLOSE GAME
47% WPG
--
FEB 26
LIKELY WIN
70% DAL
--
FEB 28
LIKELY WIN
61% FLA
--
MAR 1**
LIKELY WIN
64% @ANA
355 miles
MAR 3
LIKELY WIN
62% VAN
--
MAR 6
CLOSE GAME
42% CGY
--
MAR 9
CLOSE GAME
44% @VAN
1602 miles
MAR 10**
LIKELY LOSS
37% @CGY
675 miles
MAR 15
CLOSE GAME
53% @DAL
1723 miles
MAR 17
LIKELY WIN
68% EDM
--

The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (35% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 7.1%. At #6 in the conference, they are fighting with the Blues for positioning. With a -0.24 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. With a +0.76 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Golden Knights are just the 24th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Golden Knights are playing 6 games, traveling 710 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #31 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Las Vegas Golden Knights' next game. They are -136 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

The Golden Knights are contenders to win the conference but it is looking less likely to happen. In our pre-season forecast they had a 25.1% chance of reaching the Stanley Cup Finals. On 7/25 they had a 29.4% chance before dropping to 3.3% on 2/16. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 2.4%. Before the start of their 2 game losing streak they were at 3.7%. They are projected to finish #6 in the conference and have a 81% chance of making the playoffs. They have virtually no chance at getting home ice advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 25% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 8.22%. Based on the odds, they have a 16.7% chance of winning the West (5/1) and a 9.1% chance of winning it all (10/1). In simulations they win the championship 0.6% of the time.

Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Easy

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #12 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #10 Easiest

Golden Knights' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.